HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Meh... GFS has maybe 2-4"... Thanks Dave, Clippers are not big events out here usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The SREFs are useless for borderline events. That's great if you are inland and expecting all snow...just monitor the trend, but useless in borderline events..unless you monitor the increase or decrease in probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Interesting trend in our 12km RPM model, it's showing two storms to impact eastern Mass; the initial, stronger event tomorrow afternoon under a developing coastal low, with a second low now developing south of Long Island and tracking northeastward favoring another shot of snow Wednesday morning. Has anyone ever seen back to back coastal lows as this model suggests? I'm sure there are some convection parameterization things going on here but if so, maybe the courser res models are not successfully resolving the second system? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/412712347363319808/photo/1 The 18Z GFS op has an interesting structure on 12Z Wednesday in 6-hour accum precip plots; almost resembles the double low-scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Interesting trend in our 12km RPM model, it's showing two storms to impact eastern Mass; the initial, stronger event tomorrow afternoon under a developing coastal low, with a second low now developing south of Long Island and tracking northeastward favoring another shot of snow Wednesday morning. Has anyone ever seen back to back coastal lows as this model suggests? I'm sure there are some convection parameterization things going on here but if so, maybe the courser res models are not successfully resolving the second system? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/412712347363319808/photo/1 The 18Z GFS op has an interesting structure on 12Z Wednesday in 6-hour accum precip plots; almost resembles the double low-scenario. The two bagger has always been on the table I think as the models have struggled between one earlier low and an elongated first low that waits for energy. It's an interesting and viable option but I would still favor one stronger low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Those SREFs probs look way too far NW. BOX map looks reasonable. I was just thinking that.....not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Scratch that comment on the SREF...saw Will's post. Figured that they were prob too warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Interesting trend in our 12km RPM model, it's showing two storms to impact eastern Mass; the initial, stronger event tomorrow afternoon under a developing coastal low, with a second low now developing south of Long Island and tracking northeastward favoring another shot of snow Wednesday morning. Has anyone ever seen back to back coastal lows as this model suggests? I'm sure there are some convection parameterization things going on here but if so, maybe the courser res models are not successfully resolving the second system? https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/412712347363319808/photo/1 The 18Z GFS op has an interesting structure on 12Z Wednesday in 6-hour accum precip plots; almost resembles the double low-scenario. Different setup I'm sure as I don't recall a clipper being involved...but I think 1/18/09-1/19/09 had some 2 low scenario. We had a first low that was originally progged to give us 2-4/3-6 or something significant overnight the 17th into the 18th in CT. First low crapped out and we didn't even get a 0.5" I believe although it may have dropped more further east. Then the forecasted secondary low popped the evening of the 18th. Originally it was progged to impact only the Cape I believe but ended up throwing moisture way back and we ended up with 4.5" from the secondary. I remember being bummed on the 18th because we busted...but the 4.5" we saw later that evening came as a complete surprise and made up for the bust on the first low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Scratch that comment on the SREF...saw Will's post. Figured that they were prob too warm... Yeah they are useless in borderline situations and guess what....the major pop centers usually are borderline lol. You can discern trends, but do not take those probability verbatim if it is borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 20 hrs out...chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 20 hrs out...chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 20 hrs out...chaos More like 30, but 10 hours more probably makes no difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 20 hrs out...chaos So Mr Nomad, where will you be driving to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 More like 30, but 10 hours more probably makes no difference. 30hrs for....down east maine perhaps Thou they should start before midnite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So Mr Nomad, where will you be driving to? Lol im workin 11 hrs tommorrow. But i have a break 12-4 so. Melrose and wakefield. Besides nobody knows where this is gonna hit hardest or which sw will be in charge. Double barrel clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Schools in the area starting to announce closing and early dismissals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 30hrs for....down east maine perhaps Thou they should start before midnite Well I guess you are tossing the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Schools in the area starting to announce closing and early dismissals. Lol after canceling for a coating a few weeks back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well I guess you are tossing the 18z gfs. No im goin with a 100% 18z gfs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Schools in the area starting to announce closing and early dismissals. Congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lol after canceling for a coating a few weeks back Well, it was last Monday... but not Quabbin...yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Congrats Not me... ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Schools in the area starting to announce closing and early dismissals.Really weak sauce for GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Schools in the area starting to announce closing and early dismissals. Greenfield has an unwritten 4 inch rule. So far classes on for tomorrow. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 No im goin with a 100% 18z gfs . Ok, well we still got 30 hours before the main show even out on the Cape, so I don't know what you are looking at. Plus I'm factoring in a few more trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Really weak sauce for GC. FYI, GC is W of the CT River. ; ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Boy this GFS run evolution is all of a pubic hair away from being a short-duration ... no notice blizzard on the eastern coastal plain.... 1008 to 990mb and falling, in 10 hours passing from S of ISP to the outer GOM should produce a wind concern for the eastern shores and certainly the Cape and Islands. Totally down to 978mb by 18 hours is well within the bombogenesis criteria. Jet dynamics relaying into the NP out of the Canadian western cordillera and we'll see how the 00z's run with this newer grid input. I thought the GFS' quicker deepening rate and sharper mlv wave-break on he 18z to be intriguing. As is, the GFS can't get any closer spatial-temporally without this being a much more important impactor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 From Pete Bouchard's blog: " Late this afternoon, some new weather maps came in showing a much more powerful and SLOW storm. One so slow that it keeps the snow going through the night and into the first half of Wednesday. I have two thoughts on this.I'm not biting.Yet." 20 hrs out...chaos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Really weak sauce for GC.ORH is not GC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well I think pretty much the entire 18z suite tosses the flag for something larger to show up tonight at 0z. RGEM too...IMHO. 18z GEFS have the .5 tickling EMA now and up into Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well I think pretty much the entire 18z suite tosses the flag for something larger to show up tonight at 0z. RGEM too...IMHO. 18z GEFS have the .5 tickling EMA now and up into Maine. I give Bouchard some credit. He was the only one who went on the air, and mentioned anything about it. The possibility is alarming if it came to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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