N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 is there any appendage of anything showing signs that something hangs back from first low that moves thru tomm pm in order to let the energy from the second wave sort of keep precip going or even re-vamp things from like 7pm to midnite eastern/NE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM soundings look unstable below 700mb for a period tomorrow morning... near or just below the dendritic snow growth zone. Dry air above in the mid-levels. As usual, I don' trust the coarse GFS forecast soundings... they always look better than reality (i.e. deep saturated layer). I wonder if the precip shield tomorrow could be banded instead of a solid area of precip. Might be clear winners and losers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Thanks. the way I was reading some of the posts and people laughing..it seemed like maybe it would just be flurries over much of E Ct up into C Mass No one was laughing, just pointing out what models show. Dare I speak the truth about what models have been showing and have people thinking I am wishing their snow away. For the jackpot fetish people, I see N & W of BOS/PVD as the place to be. For the QPF fetish people I see CC, LI, and all of the South Coast as the place to be with around 0.5" melted. For the CF fetish people, I see just N of BOS down to PVD and along the South Coast of CT where the 32F isotherm makes it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM soundings look unstable below 700mb for a period tomorrow morning... near or just below the dendritic snow growth zone. Dry air above in the mid-levels. As usual, I don' trust the coarse GFS forecast soundings... they always look better than reality (i.e. deep saturated layer). I wonder if the precip shield tomorrow could be banded instead of a solid area of precip. Might be clear winners and losers. GFS actually has more vertical layers than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS actually has more vertical layers than the NAM. Then I think the plotting software on Plymouth and Twisterdata isn't very good. Comparing to actual airport soundings, the GFS forecast soundings are usually way too smooth and in precip events saturated through a much deeper layer than reality. I've noticed this going back several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 there seems to be hints on meso's that the second shortwave is very close to extending precip longer for parts of SNE into the overnite = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 plumes are nice.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131216&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630271&mTYP=roadmap LOL--that has 5" at AQW. 25:1 ratios for that to happen. Let's take the under. 18.9/8. Bummer for my daughter--they don't let them out for recess if it's under 20*. Those kids have a great sledding hill at Buckland-Shelburne Elementary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'll be driving back from NYC at around noon tomorrow....perhaps some light snow the entire route. Will make the trip a little more enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM soundings are pretty funny. LI and SI both approach 0. some elevated CAPE with those ridiculous mid-level LRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro has like .5+" I think in a small area around Braintree. Blue Hills jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM soundings are pretty funny. LI and SI both approach 0. some elevated CAPE with those ridiculous mid-level LRs. SI?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SI?? Staten Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Staten Island? http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/301/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Showalter index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 SI?? showalter index. just a quick and dirty way to see elevated instability...and sometimes diagnosis a little rumble of thunder during the cooler seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=620254918021770&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=620254918021770&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater for some reason DT hates NYC and roots against us in every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 128 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013 VALID DEC 16/1200 UTC THRU DEC 20/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... AN EVALUATION OF THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF ALONG WITH FINAL PREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE... THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS. ...UPPER TROF AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY... ...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST ON TUESDAY... FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE A DEEP UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WHERE IT WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. GUIDANCE DO VARY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH REGARD TO THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROADER SCALE UPPER TROF. WITH THE RECENT 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVING...THE DIFFERENCES SEEN ARE SMALLER THAN BEFORE WITH THE CMC NOT LOOKING AS OUTLANDISH AS BEFORE. WITH REGARD TO THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 18/0600Z ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS WEAKER WITH THE INTENSITY OF ITS LOW CENTER. AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DEEPENING PROCESS WITH THE 12Z UKMET REMAINING ON THE WEAKER SIDE. GIVEN THE NEW CONSENSUS IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COAST...PER THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF...WILL FAVOR A COMBINATION OF THESE MODELS FOR THE PREFERENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not bad Joe Joyce @JoeJoyceNECN37m Snowy PM Tues in teens and Lwr 20's will mean snow ratios of 15-1 or 20-1. Snow could be close to 6" in spots. pic.twitter.com/bjtaF0Skr3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 showalter index. just a quick and dirty way to see elevated instability...and sometimes diagnosis a little rumble of thunder during the cooler seasons. Thanks--the LI in the same sentence threw me. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=620254918021770&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Gives me a deuce.Take what I can get. I'd have thought he'd give more of CT a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Thanks--the LI in the same sentence threw me. Gives me a deuce.Take what I can get. I'd have thought he'd give more of CT a bit more. Massive dry slot issues for much of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Going to bang the 15z Srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Massive dry slot issues for much of the state Unless it's coming inland, I don't see that being the case. But what the hell do I know. I'm banking on ratios up here to get 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Massive dry slot issues for much of the state Glad you've recognized there will be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Going to bang the 15z Srefs Post?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Glad you've recognized there will be one.I don't think it's nearly the issue you're making it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Post?? Cant post my maps, Better for folks over SE, RI, CT, Mass, NH and Maine back to here, .50", Jackpot DE Maine .75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not bad Joe Joyce @JoeJoyceNECN37m Snowy PM Tues in teens and Lwr 20's will mean snow ratios of 15-1 or 20-1. Snow could be close to 6" in spots. pic.twitter.com/bjtaF0Skr3 Meh, lazy meteorology. Surface temps have nothing to do with the ratios. NAM/GFS have a pretty good warm nose (to -5ish C just west of BOS). That will have a much larger impact on ratios. I would expect regional average snow ratios from this event (maybe a tickle higher at the onset of precip). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not bad Joe Joyce @JoeJoyceNECN37m Snowy PM Tues in teens and Lwr 20's will mean snow ratios of 15-1 or 20-1. Snow could be close to 6" in spots. pic.twitter.com/bjtaF0Skr3 Joyce and his pals also had widespread 12"+ this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Joyce and his pals also had widespread 12"+ this weekend...When we post these maps it doesn't mean they are right or that we believe them, just posting for viewer discretion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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