SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ? I thought the euro wasn't that good. The Euro stinks from my past experience on these sort of systems in regards to QPF, it tends to do okay on tracks but is usually dry...I'm not 100% but I think pure northern stream disturbances the GFS is usually a better model, if you have interaction between the NRN and SRN streams the Euro is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ch 10 news called for a change to rain for all of CC/ SE MA/ RI with temp going up to 40F. This was based off the latest computer models they said? I was like, what model shows 40F Tues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ch 10 news called for a change to rain for all of CC/ SE MA/ RI with temp going up to 40F. This was based off the latest computer models they said? I was like, what model shows 40F Tues? Only really the RPM. NAM would flip Cape I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ch 10 news called for a change to rain for all of CC/ SE MA/ RI with temp going up to 40F. This was based off the latest computer models they said? I was like, what model shows 40F Tues? Maybe there is a slightly above 0c layer just above the surface, 925-950mb, but not sure where they are getting the surface temps that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I cannot remember a really good clipper...even better than the one after the blizzard which was only four inches around here....since back in the winter of 89-90! I remember some when I was a kid back in the early 80s that were impressive as well (6 to ten).... noyes only calling for two to four most of sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Only really the RPM. NAM would flip Cape I think. Ok, maybe that was it. They showed the highest totals up N & W of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 HPC says all models except NAM preferred. LOL. DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WED ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE PROGRESSION AND DEPTH OF THIS SYSTEM ALOFT, THOUGH THEIR SURFACE PATTERNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE 00Z NAM IS BY FAR THE STRONGEST HERE, WHICH IS ONE OF ITS BIASES 2-3 DAYS INTO THE FUTURE, SO DO NOT WISH TO PLAY UP ITS SOLUTION. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING ALONG QUICKLY, RIDGING EAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD BLOCK EASTWARD MOTION TO SOME DEGREE. A NON-NAM COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Boy strolling through twitter this morning I saw WBZ and FOX with a good sized 3-6 swath from Worcester points north and east. Is everybody riding the SREF, NAM, & RPM with this one? I know this clipper is going to bomb once it sniffs the coasts, but I don't think I could go more than 2-4 with this one. The Maine coastline should make out pretty well however. Maybe Cape Ann and the New Hampshire seacoast can get in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 2-4" final call. My call for last storm was dead on. 1/1 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Boy strolling through twitter this morning I saw WBZ and FOX with a good sized 3-6 swath from Worcester points north and east. Is everybody riding the SREF, NAM, & RPM with this one? I know this clipper is going to bomb once it sniffs the coasts, but I don't think I could go more than 2-4 with this one. The Maine coastline should make out pretty well however. Maybe Cape Ann and the New Hampshire seacoast can get in on the fun. with arctic air present, clippers can produce 5 inches of snow on .2qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 09z SREFs are out. Mean SLP is from S of W end of LI over to CHH. Strenghens from 1012 to 1008mb in that time. Pretty juice too. 0.50" contour over LI/ Extreme SCT RI/ SE MA/ CC. What I like is it has this feasture fingering back into SNE which, to me, is indicative of E inflow off the Atlantic around the circulation. For the other folks, the 0.25" contour gets all the way up to NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I'm thinking with such a cold airmass experience dictates that clippers with past tracks and less vorticity almost always over achieve. Go with 2-4" but with the knowledge that a uptick in amounts should not be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 2-4" final call. My call for last storm was dead on. 1/1 so far. seems like a good call, I was at 4-6" on the last storm after I had originally said 6-8 and ended up with around 7", should have stuck to my first forecast. Anyway looks like 3-5" that is my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM looks like it will be sharper with the second s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like NAM will trend south again as shortwave digs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That second s/w is stronger and tries to keep the low sort of redeveloping south of the Cape. We'll see if this holds after hr 36 of the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That second s/w is stronger and tries to keep the low sort of redeveloping south of the Cape. We'll see if this holds after hr 36 of the 12z NAM. Probably not much, but just enough to slow the progression a few hours. Having that trailer s/wdig further S is helping this whole thing out(if correct) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Could this work as a quasi capture scenario at all I heard this mentioned cpl days ago but not since Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 general 2-5" on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah a little too late. Looks like a 2-4/3-5 deal or so on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Hate to say it but there will be a mean dryslot with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Probably not much, but just enough to slow the progression a few hours. Having that trailer s/wdig further S is helping this whole thing out(if correct) Could this work as a quasi capture scenario at all I heard this mentioned cpl days ago but not since Not really. I just see the trailer s/w dropping S enough to enhance the lead wave a bit over E areas. This is from ME right down to CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM is pretty good. would likely flip to rain for a time out here, but then flip back over to snow. not before a pretty solid front end 3 to 4" though...and maybe a little enhancement at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM is pretty good. would likely flip to rain for a time out here, but then flip back over to snow. not before a pretty solid front end 3 to 4" though...and maybe a little enhancement at the end. I wonder if the RGEM is onto something with this system. IE, is this second s/w going to be enough to almost slow the system down and drag it maybe a little further north. It isn't far from slowing for several hours in a prime position but as it is now 1-3" and coastal NH and ME cash in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Albany riding the 2-4 theme region wide. I wonder what the qpf was for the nearly 3" I got on Friday. Would love even half the ratios that had for this little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 NAM is pretty good. would likely flip to rain for a time out here, but then flip back over to snow. not before a pretty solid front end 3 to 4" though...and maybe a little enhancement at the end. I thought it looked ok as well. Nothing spectacular. TTs get up to 56.3 at TAN. Little instability in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Lots of Boston TV mets throwing out 3-6" amounts near BOS out to 495 and beyond Saw that this morning on Ch 7. Looks like we're in the 2-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 LOL, RPM focuses on second s/w it appears and gives me an icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 LOL, RPM focuses on second s/w it appears and gives me an icestorm. I think there's still a real struggle over which s/w should be the lead. One could argue it is the latter...but the surface low develops first. Someone may do very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 LOL, RPM focuses on second s/w it appears and gives me an icestorm. definitely not interested in that scenario it has on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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