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December 17th Clipper Discussion

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted

They're not part of the FWC network. But ironically I just looked at snow numbers on the met guidance.

BDL: 4

ORH/PVD/PYM: 6

Hya: 4

BOS/bed: 8

 

Care to hook a brother up with LGA, NYC, JFK?

 

Also, I am absolutely AMAZED at the cold modeled for NE... just unreal and it's still pre solstice... 1989 type stuff.

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ono

ono

Posted
Posted

relying on ratios 

 

temps low teens, good lift saturated column, 20-1 stuff

relying on ratios like 20:1 can be trouble.  Case in point: northern VT today.  20:1 ratios were forecasted, but things came in more like 10-12:1.

 

Just a thought.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Care to hook a brother up with LGA, NYC, JFK?

 

Also, I am absolutely AMAZED at the cold modeled for NE... just unreal and it's still pre solstice... 1989 type stuff.

Hi Dan...we miss you up here.

All 3 stations 1 in one period and 2 in the next. Decent but not warning level. But this is trending south in the vm so who knows?

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danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted

Hi Dan...we miss you up here.

All 3 stations 1 in one period and 2 in the next. Decent but not warning level. But this is trending south in the vm so who knows?

 

Miss you too, Jerry and co! Miss sticking out into the Atlantic, too... these clips can be fun for you guys.

 

Expecting 2-3" here, but these things are fickle beasts... have been screwed by clippers more times than I can remember being surprised by them.

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jamesnichols1989

jamesnichols1989

Posted
Posted

Miss you too, Jerry and co! Miss sticking out into the Atlantic, too... these clips can be fun for you guys.

 

Expecting 2-3" here, but these things are fickle beasts... have been screwed by clippers more times than I can remember being surprised by them.

 

New York has to rely on too many things to happen for a decent sized snowstorm for you guys.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Setup reminds me of the event post Blizzard of 2005 when 1-3/2-4 was forecast, the low bombed, and we (I was in Boston at the time) got roughly 8" of fluff.  What a period that was, cold as hell too.

 

That event comes in 2nd place as my most hated event of all time. 

 

I lived in Middlesex Co Mass, and we had a gravity wave induced meso-band of boning in that region.  6" total.  No where close to a blizzard verified there despite the warnings. I recall waking at 5 am to a flurries and wondering what the f.

  

The apex worst of all was that 1987 event that was Blizzard Watched some 3.5 days ahead of time because the certitude of NWS had a storm that would impact rivaling 1978, all the way into interior SNE.  The tickers ran constant along the bottom of the television, for days, as every aspect imaginable that is consistent with big New England bombs was highlighted, ranging from CF, to high wind, deep snow, power-outages, choking death, you name it.   Supposed to be THAT good.  I remember half time at my High School b-ball game, walking out onto the entrance way to the gym, dripping sweat, to see large sleety snow balls beginning to mix in with the light rain.  We were playing well that night, en route to a win, and it couldn't be any better.  Beating our rival and then having a snow day(S) unfold.  The game ends and I am all cleaned up and ready to walk home, and there was nothing falling.  In fact, almost no wind.  "Wtf."   The sky had that butter-scotch glow, but it was black at the horizons.  I remembered that look from Michigan, growing up, in that lake effect snow events usually "ended" that way.  I put the the thought aside as being meaningless... until Harvey Leonard comes on later at 11pm.  

 

Imagine this in slow motion and a very deep voice:  "I now think the heaviest snow will over the Cape and the Islands, with much less northwest of the City, city city ... city"

 

No, no way.  Not after that run-up.  He has to be wrong.  But the next morning broke to dim sun through cirrus and flurries.  All of 1-2" of 30::1 ration snow in 9F cold was blowing around.  AND, I got to walk to school in that cold.  

 

I will never forgive Walter Drag for that as his name was always pinned to the end of the ticker statements as they rolled across the bottom of the TV screen (just kidding Walt).

 

I later learned while at UML that that storm fooled EVERY one.  There was stunning model agreement 5 days out, and it held until about .1 days out, and then all the models shifted E.  As it were, the Cape and Islands went to 20+ " of white-outs in 50mph winds.  

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danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted

That event comes in 2nd place as my most hated event of all time. 

 

I lived in Middlesex Co Mass, and we had a gravity wave induced meso-band of boning in that region.  6" total.  No where close to a blizzard verified there despite the warnings. I recall waking at 5 am to a flurries and wondering what the f.

  

The apex worst of all was that 1987 event that was Blizzard Watched some 3.5 days ahead of time because the certitude of NWS had a storm that would impact rivaling 1978, all the way into interior SNE.  The tickers ran constant along the bottom of the television, for days, as every aspect imaginable that is consistent with big New England bombs was highlighted, ranging from CF, to high wind, deep snow, power-outages, choking death, you name it.   Supposed to be THAT good.  I remember half time at my High School b-ball game, walking out onto the entrance way to the gym, dripping sweat, to see large sleety snow balls beginning to mix in with the light rain.  We were playing well that night, en route to a win, and it couldn't be any better.  Beating our rival and then having a snow day(S) unfold.  The game ends and I am all cleaned up and ready to walk home, and there was nothing falling.  In fact, almost no wind.  "Wtf."   The sky had that butter-scotch glow, but it was black at the horizons.  I remembered that look from Michigan, growing up, in that lake effect snow events usually "ended" that way.  I put the the thought aside as being meaningless... until Harvey Leonard comes on later at 11pm.  

 

Imagine this in slow motion and a very deep voice:  "I now think the heaviest snow will over the Cape and the Islands, with much less northwest of the City, city city ... city"

 

No, no way.  Not after that run-up.  He has to be wrong.  But the next morning broke to dim sun through cirrus and flurries.  All of 1-2" of 30::1 ration snow in 9F cold was blowing around.  AND, I got to walk to school in that cold.  

 

I will never forgive Walter Drag for that as his name was always pinned to the end of the ticker statements as they rolled across the bottom of the TV screen (just kidding Walt).

 

I later learned while at UML that that storm fooled EVERY one.  There was stunning model agreement 5 days out, and it held until about .1 days out, and then all the models shifted E.  As it were, the Cape and Islands went to 20+ " of white-outs in 50mph winds.  

 

Translate it for me, because sometimes I can't process Tip-speak... you really got 6" of snow from the Blizzard of 2005?

 

Didn't Chelmsford get that in one hour in the final collapsing death band? Boston verified 24-28, right? I was down at the South Shore in those winds at my buddy's summer house and had somewhere around 30, but it was impossible to tell with all the wind. 

 

One thing about those epic storms is that someone gets absolutely screwed at the fringes...

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

Translate it for me, because sometimes I can't process Tip-speak... you really got 6" of snow from the Blizzard of 2005?

Didn't Chelmsford get that in one hour in the final collapsing death band? Boston verified 24-28, right? I was down at the South Shore in those winds at my buddy's summer house and had somewhere around 30, but it was impossible to tell with all the wind.

One thing about those epic storms is that someone gets absolutely screwed at the fringes...

I'm in Middlesex Co. too. Had 27" in Woburn. One of my favorite events of all time.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Posted

Translate it for me, because sometimes I can't process Tip-speak... you really got 6" of snow from the Blizzard of 2005?

 

Didn't Chelmsford get that in one hour in the final collapsing death band? Boston verified 24-28, right? I was down at the South Shore in those winds at my buddy's summer house and had somewhere around 30, but it was impossible to tell with all the wind. 

 

One thing about those epic storms is that someone gets absolutely screwed at the fringes...

 

 

They didn't only get 6" in this blizzard of 2005. He must be thinking of anaother system. They got "only" about 12-14" at the lowest while surrounding areas got over 20 inches.

 

 

The lowets total I can find in Middlesex country is 13.5"...but I could see maybe an ionch or two lower if somewhere got really scred

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...   MELROSE               36.0   116 PM  1/23     CAMBRIDGE             30.0   258 PM  1/23     WAKEFIELD             28.0   400 PM  1/23     BILLERICA             27.5   917 PM  1/23     NORTH WOBURN          27.5   224 AM  1/24   ST  6 FT DRIFTS   BURLINGTON            27.0   850 AM  1/24     SOUTH CHELMSFORD      27.0   114 PM  1/23     EVERETT               26.5   300 PM  1/23     BELMONT               26.0   918 PM  1/23   ST   WINCHESTER            25.8  1104 PM  1/23     EAST ARLINGTON        25.0   400 PM  1/23   NORTH BILLERICA       25.0   100 PM  1/23     WILMINGTON            25.0   137 PM  1/23   ST   NORTH CHELMSFORD      24.0   440 PM  1/23   WOBURN                24.0  1040 PM  1/23   NATICK                22.0   700 AM  1/24   CO-OP OBSERVER     WAYLAND               22.0   340 PM  1/23     WESTFORD              22.0   526 PM  1/23     MAYNARD               21.7   812 AM  1/24     LEXINGTON             21.0   249 PM  1/23     STONEHAM              21.0   123 PM  1/23     CARLISLE              20.8  1113 AM  1/23     AYER                  20.3   330 PM  1/23   ST   LITTLETON             19.0   241 PM  1/23     CHELMSFORD            18.5   219 PM  1/23   ST   DRACUT                18.2   220 PM  1/23   ST   DUNSTABLE             18.0  1245 PM  1/23     PEPPERELL             18.0   249 PM  1/23     TOWNSEND              18.0   402 PM  1/23   ST   SHIRLEY               14.0   105 PM  1/23     HUDSON                13.5   300 PM  1/23

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/climate/snowrpts/snowstormJan2224-2005

 

 

 

 

Maybe he is thinking of PDII in Feb 2003?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Translate it for me, because sometimes I can't process Tip-speak... you really got 6" of snow from the Blizzard of 2005?

 

Didn't Chelmsford get that in one hour in the final collapsing death band? Boston verified 24-28, right? I was down at the South Shore in those winds at my buddy's summer house and had somewhere around 30, but it was impossible to tell with all the wind. 

 

One thing about those epic storms is that someone gets absolutely screwed at the fringes...

 

6, maybe 9,"  I remember it as pedestrian.  I later saw a snow totals map and actually it was a narrow band from NE CT to Middlesex Co up in interior, eastern Mass that appeared affected by a negative node in the output.  I can't find it tho - huh.   Anyway, I appreciate the storm on whole as it brought the wood to many, and was fascinating, but it was irritating to go through such an anti-climax over having a blizzard warning in place.  

 

Wasn't that blizzard warned back that far?  I can't recall that level of detail.  I do remember the collapsing heavy deformation band... It brought the most snow of the event to Acton, and it was on par with that 6" in an hour you mentioned.  But that was it, one, 1.5 hour period of S+ after a lot of hoopla.  

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