ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 3:39 PM, CoastalWx said: A little tweak to the euro, a little tweak to the GFS. In the end...that is what you do. I always say the best climo if you don't have time to look at any details is to go 70% Euro 30% GFS....that usually the closest to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 3:39 PM, CoastalWx said: A little tweak to the euro, a little tweak to the GFS. In the end...that is what you do. 3-6 for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 3:41 PM, ORH_wxman said: I always say the best climo if you don't have time to look at any details is to go 70% Euro 30% GFS....that usually the closest to reality. On 12/17/2013 at 3:42 PM, weathafella said: 3-6 for most. Yeah pretty much. Maybe the GFS is right for a weenie band over central MA and NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 3:38 PM, mattlacroix4 said: What the hell is the GFS doing. Sends the energy offshore... Its not as bad as i thought Keeps w the .1+ qpf from 7-1 and 1-7 later tonite and early am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 You know we've had a nice start if we're blasé about this event...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Will need to watch two bands, one just NW of the low and the other a back side band developing as H7 closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 3:45 PM, weathafella said: You know we've had a nice start if we're blasé about this event...lol. I'm not looking at it like that..I like these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Talk about a swing to the GFS, 4 hours before the event...that is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The good stuff for later is moving up. Just south of NYC and LI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 winter storm warning for norteast mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 WSW all the way to worcester... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yea! Warning now... My 2.5" call FTL (but really FTW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 disagree with that warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM ESTWEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEWHAMPSHIRE...INCLUDING THE CITIES AND METRO-AREAS OF WORCESTER...LAWRENCE...LOWELL...NASHUA...AND MANCHESTER.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW IS EXPECTTO INTENSIFY TOWARDS 4 PM AND CONTINUE TO ROUGHLY AROUND 10 PMBEFORE DIMINISHING. MUCH OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR DURINGTHIS WINDOW...BUT MAY FALL IN AS LITTLE AS THREE HOURS. SNOWFALLRATES AT OR EXCEEDING 1-INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE 4 PM TO10 PM TIMEFRAME.* IMPACTS...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL RESULT IN QUICKACCUMULATING SNOW MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS EVENINGS COMMUTE. VISIBILITIES WILL BE DOWNTO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHHEAVY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 WSW for me? Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Graupel here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 3:59 PM, forkyfork said: disagree with that warning Needs to hit 6" in 12 hours... most areas will prob be short of that... but some could do it. I agree with your disagreement. Travel will stink though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'll buy 5" for my area given what's been going on in model world, I enjoy the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That seems a little bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I understand Forky's point but I think in terms of the NWS mission it make sense. Also, we may get rather efficient accumulations as cold as it has been and still is (15 BOS at 11am). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm going 2-5'' here. Warning seems a bit ambitious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nate Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Quite a bit of sun coming through despite the look of the radar and the very light snow that is falling (in Norwood) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 3:59 PM, forkyfork said: disagree with that warning Yeah seems a bit bullish for the situation...but some areas will probably verifiy...just not sure 50% of the warning area will to justify the warning. You can maybe justify the warning due to the timing of the worst being the PM rush hour...but if that is the case, the warnings should probably not be defined by amounts but by impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 3:41 PM, Logan11 said: I'm pleased so far today. several decent bursts of moderate snow, lighter lull now. 1.5" down and 2 degrees. I was surprised that we got so cold here today..absolutely decoupled and dropped to -18.Congrats Rick that's what separates this from other SWFE 2000s winters. Leon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 4:09 PM, Ginxy said: Congrats Rick that's what separates this from other SWFE 2000s winters. LeonLeon trying to keep front south this weekend despite some mets already publicly forecasting 60Snow ebbs and flows this morning so far here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 3:36 PM, ORH_wxman said: That's not really true. I think it had one run where it only gave about 2" of snow to eastern areas...but its been pretty consistent with this being an advisory type snow...literally going back maybe 6-7 days now. It has sharpened the 2nd shortwave on successive runs but it never waivered from the idea that this system would be primarily a front-running deal. Go back to Sunday's 0z run. It had a weak POS strung out low passing outside the Cape late today. By then the GFS and NAM had a low tracking right over the Cape. HRRR almost smokes the Cape later today but it may be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 4:04 PM, CoastalWx said: That seems a little bullish. I want my snow dammit! Where's my WSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 4:11 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Leon trying to keep front south this weekend despite some mets already publicly forecasting 60 Snow ebbs and flows this morning so far here Looks icy up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 HRRR/RAP playing some games still later on with that last band that comes through tonight. Going to be fun to watch this evolve. There's going to be a narrow intense band of precip either very near me...or just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On 12/17/2013 at 4:07 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah seems a bit bullish for the situation...but some areas will probably verifiy...just not sure 50% of the warning area will to justify the warning. You can maybe justify the warning due to the timing of the worst being the PM rush hour...but if that is the case, the warnings should probably not be defined by amounts but by impact. Maybe a little gun shy from that last rush hour disaster? I'm not a big fan of wasting the "impact" bullets so early in the season. Eventually it starts to fall on deaf ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.