ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 SREFs got a bit juicier again from 09z...a bit larger area of 0.50" qpf in E MA and RI and into SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I don't think it's nearly the issue you're making it out to be. What issue am I making of it, other than it's there? It'll limit totals in some areas, that's about it. This will be a quick 6-8hr system out W and maybe a few hours longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:41 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: What issue am I making of it, other than it's there? It'll limit totals in some areas, that's about it. This will be a quick 6-8hr system out W and maybe a few hours longer http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4_12z/ptot47.html this argues for a 12-14 hr or so deal left panel says longer duration for SNE Right panel says longer duration for CNE/maybe parts of NE mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:34 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I don't think it's nearly the issue you're making it out to be. Yeah--even if it cuts your total in half, we're only talking an inch or two differential. On 12/16/2013 at 7:35 PM, coldfront said: Cant post my maps, Better for folks over SE, RI, CT, Mass, NH and Maine back to here, .50", Jackpot DE Maine .75" Thanks--steady with my 2. On 12/16/2013 at 7:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: When we post these maps it doesn't mean they are right or that we believe them, just posting for weather hype. Fixed. Nipply out. 19.3/7, gusting to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: When we post these maps it doesn't mean they are right or that we believe them, just posting for viewer discretion I know...lol just sayin' The NECN crew got a bit giddy this weekend and have been high fiving each other for upping the Maine amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:43 PM, moneypitmike said: Yeah--even if it cuts your total in half, we're only talking an inch or two differential. Thanks--steady with my 2. Fixed. Nipply out. 19.3/7, gusting to 20. Your in a tough spot out west for this one me thinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:35 PM, OceanStWx said: Meh, lazy meteorology. Surface temps have nothing to do with the ratios. NAM/GFS have a pretty good warm nose (to -5ish C just west of BOS). That will have a much larger impact on ratios. I would expect regional average snow ratios from this event (maybe a tickle higher at the onset of precip). Yup - yet I see it all the time from NWS to TV to bad hobbyists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 15z SREFs are warm at surface for all inside 128 belt, all of RI, S CT, LI. >0c at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:47 PM, coldfront said: Your in a tough spot out west for this one me thinks You never know. .2-.3" QPF with 520dm thicknesses and a possibly unstable layer. Biggest QPF won't be well west, but there could still be some decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:56 PM, eduggs said: You never know. .2-.3" QPF with 520dm thicknesses and a possibly unstable layer. Biggest QPF won't be well west, but there could still be some decent snow. Yep, back away from the best qpf might have pretty good snow growth. A couple tenths could translate to adivsory criteria snow with 700mb temps of -12C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 8:00 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yep, back away from the best qpf might have pretty good snow growth. A couple tenths could translate to adivsory criteria snow with 700mb temps of -12C That's what happened here on Friday--just an awesome sight. Of course, it's tough to count on that--that's why I want my qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 weenie in hand . almost ready to chuck em I am thinking 6 inches will verfity for more than 50% of Essex County Mass. NE mass December. I like what I see with meso's waiting for 0z suite before letting them officially fly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I've heard and seen on some media outlets talk about cold and fluffy snow, looks like the temps here may be marginal in reality though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yes for the QPF queens, what you lack with measurable...you'll make up for in ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 8:04 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I've heard and seen on some media outlets talk about cold and fluffy snow, looks like the temps here may be marginal in reality though? For you, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:56 PM, eduggs said: You never know. .2-.3" QPF with 520dm thicknesses and a possibly unstable layer. Biggest QPF won't be well west, but there could still be some decent snow. Was talking strictly qpf as Mike has a fetish with it....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 8:04 PM, CoastalWx said: Yes for the QPF queens, what you lack with measurable...you'll make up for in ratios. Some of us get the QPF and ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 8:05 PM, CoastalWx said: For you, yes. Something similar to say last Tuesday possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z 12km btv wrf really likes Maine tomorrow nite. . Gets the 35f isotherm from cape ann to bos to e Pym county from like 3-8pm tomorrow. scooter would not approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 7:53 PM, CT Rain said: Yup - yet I see it all the time from NWS to TV to bad hobbyists. I mean PVD to BOS looks like between 8 or 12:1 for the duration. Back towards ORH maybe pulling off a few more hours of 15:1 type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Advisories hoisted by the 4PM BOX package? Maybe watches for coastal Maine and SE NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 18z NAM tucking this thing in a bit closer vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 8:05 PM, CoastalWx said: For you, yes. temps lookin borderline on meso's for extreme E mass after 3-4 pm. up thru cape ann Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nam looks like a decent hit, Deeper by 4mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 8:08 PM, OceanStWx said: I mean PVD to BOS looks like between 8 or 12:1 for the duration. Back towards ORH maybe pulling off a few more hours of 15:1 type stuff.Same basic idea a bit SW of ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 looks like CNE, NNE are the winners on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 phil just chuck'd his computer after looking as MSLP track on 18z nam scooter may have as well coastal front may play significant role tomm eve with precip looks lke Ray to Methuen to Exeter NH to Portland can get nude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 8:12 PM, cpick79 said: temps lookin borderline on meso's for extreme E mass after 3-4 pm. up thru cape ann I'm not really worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 8:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Same basic idea a bit SW of ORH? For the most part, NAM looks a little better than the GFS. 15 or 12:1 at the start, falling to below 10:1 in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 1-2 looks like it may be a good call here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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