Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:07 PM, coldfront said: Its been quite a while since we have had a clipper type event that i don't remember which models actually handle these types of systems betterIf I recall correctly the Rgem does very well with these types of systems and the GFS does not due the spatial physics of the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said: If I recall correctly the Rgem does very well with these types of systems and the GFS does not due the spatial physics of the model Someone mentioned earlier that the Euro did not handle these as well either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This is so close to being a significant hit as either a slowing first system or a double bagger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think that NYC thread was mentioning MESO's are the way to go on this one I would take any slowing trends on globals ...as a red flag I think this is more of an after 3pm special for E/NE mass waiting for 12z BTV WRF 4 km to come out 6z gave .5 plus from far eastern mass (N-S) up thru down east maine....including BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:17 PM, Winston Wolf said: This is so close to being a significant hit as either a slowing first system or a double bagger. I think people should be approaching the ticket counter for high end advisory low end WSW totals for most of area away from immediate south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:23 PM, cpick79 said: I think people should be approaching the ticket counter for high end advisory low end WSW totals for most of area away from immediate south coast. I think in these last 18 hours models will break sharply towards the end solution which will end up hitting sne pretty hard or blowing quickly through in favor of Maine/nh and ns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:23 PM, cpick79 said: I think people should be approaching the ticket counter for high end advisory low end WSW totals for most of area away from immediate south coast. I think in these last 18 hours models will break sharply towards the end solution which will end up hitting sne pretty hard or blowing quickly through in favor of Maine/nh and ns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 the NMM and ARW high res models have a dry hole over NE CT. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z GFS Ensm members all look pretty similar to the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 6z BTV WRF had NICE coastal front setting up SW-NE from about Wellsley to Reading/Lynnfield to Newburyport, but just like last storm it's still all snow east of CF ...just upper 20's low 30's on eside upper teens/low 20's west side. ALSO it's only a brief like 4 hour Coastal front before it collapses to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:18 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Hate to say it but there will be a mean dryslot with this. On 12/16/2013 at 5:31 PM, forkyfork said: the NMM and ARW high res models have a dry hole over NE CT. lol Said it earlier but did not want to single out posters who would take offense to this. Looked like just about all 12z guidance has this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:12 PM, Damage In Tolland said: If I recall correctly the Rgem does very well with these types of systems and the GFS does not due the spatial physics of the model On 12/16/2013 at 12:32 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro stinks from my past experience on these sort of systems in regards to QPF, it tends to do okay on tracks but is usually dry...I'm not 100% but I think pure northern stream disturbances the GFS is usually a better model, if you have interaction between the NRN and SRN streams the Euro is better Ummm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:37 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Said it earlier but did not want to single out posters who would take offense to this. Looked like just about all 12z guidance has this. is it just subsistance dryslotting or dry air intrusion or what is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah it appears my area is going to get only flurries tomorrow with nice bands east and west. My hope is these places can cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z BTV WRF came in with a bit less QPF ....actually not that much different for bos metro...(compare to 6z 4km) .... .4 to .5 instead of .5 to .6 FWIW looking at the differences in the 6z btw wrf model's the 12km had more qpf than the 4km also gets areas along S shore E Pym county /cape islands 35-37 around 3-7pm tomorrow with CF draping from say Peabody to Medford at 4pm then shifting a tad east and tightening a bit to say Quincy NE to Manchester by the sea track of MSLP seems interesting from Off toms river nj 10am (1010mb) ) to just south of MVY 1pm (1009mb) to 4pm (ACK/slowing by second shortwave) 1009mb then ....at 7pm it's center is due North and deeper (1007) mb on top of upper cape/ (east of Marshfield) then 10pm about 60 miles east of BVY and 1004 mb so I don't think this is sorted out yet but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:39 PM, RobbieL241 said: is it just subsistance dryslotting or dry air intrusion or what is it? Mostly a dryslot as this is such a relatively fast moving system. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:46 PM, cpick79 said: 12z BTV WRF came in with a bit less QPF .... also gets areas along S shore E Pym county /cape islands 35-37 around 3-7pm tomorrow with CF draping from say Peabody to Medford at 4pm then shifting a tad east and tightening a bit to say Quincy NE to Manchester by the sea 4km nam has hit eastern PYM hard for a few runs. Some type of onshore flow there for sure. Synoptically I think the Euro tells us the story this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:51 PM, Winston Wolf said: 4km nam has hit eastern PYM hard for a few runs. Some type of onshore flow there for sure. Synoptically I think the Euro tells us the story this run. There should be no reason to think the Euro will be wrong at this timeframe. 24h out from system starting. Both s/w are over land now and have been sampled pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 plumes are nice.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131216&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630271&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro still looks like 2-4 maybe a spot 3-5 in ern areas. Real close to being a bit more of that energy trends stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 5:59 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: There should be no reason to think the Euro will be wrong at this timeframe. 24h out from system starting. Both s/w are over land now and have been sampled pretty good. we shall see snow goose says euro pretty much blows with these...I hope euro looks good at 5 H and surface track (I think) I will leave QPF to meso's on this compact little thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z Euro is an improvement from 0z, Still develops late but congrats DE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 6:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Euro still looks like 2-4 maybe a spot 3-5 in ern areas. Real close to being a bit more of that energy trends stronger. I think given the analogs and the fact that euro is close to more warrants a closer eye on meso's in next 12 hours high end advisory snows with an eye toward 5-8 over NE areas if meso's sniff out stronger trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 hi-res euro literally says congrats scooter. tiny weenie area of .5" qpf over weymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 6:04 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: hi-res euro literally says congrats scooter. tiny weenie area of .5" qpf over weymouth Does it have the dry slot/flurries over Ct/Central mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 6:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Euro still looks like 2-4 maybe a spot 3-5 in ern areas. Real close to being a bit more of that energy trends stronger. Pretty solid consensus right now on a track/qpf. Any idea of surface temps? I think the GFS is a tad warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 6:04 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: hi-res euro literally says congrats scooter. tiny weenie area of .5" qpf over weymouth LOL. The CF may be nearby too. Wish this storm would slow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I can see a sharp cutoff between PVC and HYA, 6" for Provincetown, MA and 4" for Hyannis, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 6:05 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Does it have the dry slot/flurries over Ct/Central mass? yeah there is a sucker hole there. pretty good band along the CT shore. then another area of heavier precip further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 6:06 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Pretty solid consensus right now on a track/qpf. Any idea of surface temps? I think the GFS is a tad warm. On phone so can't really give specifics. Phil may know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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