CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:45 PM, Winston Wolf said: I think there's still a real struggle over which s/w should be the lead. One could argue it is the latter...but the surface low develops first. Someone may do very well. On 12/16/2013 at 2:49 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: definitely not interested in that scenario it has on the 12z. Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The RPM model - it is only e-WALL, or is there another site to use? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:51 PM, CoastalWx said: Tossed. Funny though Scott...for all the advances in models here we are 36 hours out and nothing is decided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:51 PM, CoastalWx said: Tossed. that run almost makes me want to drive off the sagamore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:52 PM, Winston Wolf said: Funny though Scott...for all the advances in models here we are 36 hours out and nothing is decided. When you have fast flow from Canada and clippers involved..models usually take until the last second to evolve. It's definitely a product of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:52 PM, Winston Wolf said: Funny though Scott...for all the advances in models here we are 36 hours out and nothing is decided. more like 24 hours when this thing gets cranking se of nyc. midday models will get this cleared up or else we get a moment by moment call based on hourly models and satellite. I like when you do that. It has been a little while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:53 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: that run almost makes me want to drive off the sagamore. I feel 99.9999% confident I'm not getting hours of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:54 PM, CoastalWx said: I feel 99.9999% confident I'm not getting hours of ZR. so you're telling me there's a chance!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:54 PM, CoastalWx said: I feel 99.9999% confident I'm not getting hours of ZR. 1-3"/2-4" looks pretty good right now with spots to 5-6" N & W of BOS/ PVD, Less as you get up into NNE(save for coastal areas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:54 PM, mahk_webstah said: more like 24 hours when this thing gets cranking se of nyc. midday models will get this cleared up or else we get a moment by moment call based on hourly models and satellite. I like when you do that. It has been a little while... We'll see right now it doesn't look that interesting to me down here. On 12/16/2013 at 2:54 PM, CoastalWx said: I feel 99.9999% confident I'm not getting hours of ZR. That's good. What's going on at Harvard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:56 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: so you're telling me there's a chance!? To me, the GFS makes sense...but we'll see of the 12z GFS changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:59 PM, Winston Wolf said: We'll see right now it doesn't look that interesting to me down here. That's good. What's going on at Harvard? unconfirmed reports of explosives in 4 buildings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:58 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: 1-3"/2-4" looks pretty good right now with spots to 5-6" N & W of BOS/ PVD, Less as you get up into NNE(save for coastal areas). I have visions of that 2012 mini snow bomb that hit you guys in January. This may be a colder version to start, but to me, this looks like something where on radar you'll have that mini comma head look moving over SE MA. These little lows that develop near LI have a mini MCV looking feature with them. You can see it on sim radar too. That's why your TTs are so high. COld airmass with high octane injection of Atlantic moisture. It may make for a narrow but very potent band of snow moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:02 PM, CoastalWx said: I have visions of that 2012 mini snow bomb that hit you guys in January. This may be a colder version to start, but to me, this looks like something where on radar you'll have that mini comma head look moving over SE MA. These little lows that develop near LI have a mini MCV looking feature with them. You can see it on sim radar too. That's why your TTs are so high. COld airmass with high octane injection of Atlantic moisture. It may make for a narrow but very potent band of snow moving through. Had many of those 95/96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:02 PM, CoastalWx said: I have visions of that 2012 mini snow bomb that hit you guys in January. This may be a colder version to start, but to me, this looks like something where on radar you'll have that mini comma head look moving over SE MA. These little lows that develop near LI have a mini MCV looking feature with them. You can see it on sim radar too. That's why your TTs are so high. COld airmass with high octane injection of Atlantic moisture. It may make for a narrow but very potent band of snow moving through. Don't disagree in your thoughts. I also think there will be a mid-level deformation band as well. That's where it will be a true fluff special. 20:1 type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:08 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Don't disagree in your thoughts. I also think there will be a mid-level deformation band as well. That's where it will be a true fluff special. 20:1 type stuff. Yes, on the nrn edge there will be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:38 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: I thought it looked ok as well. Nothing spectacular. TTs get up to 56.3 at TAN. Little instability in there. What are TTs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:12 PM, SnowMan said: What are TTs? Total totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:36 PM, Winston Wolf said: I wonder if the RGEM is onto something with this system. IE, is this second s/w going to be enough to almost slow the system down and drag it maybe a little further north. It isn't far from slowing for several hours in a prime position but as it is now 1-3" and coastal NH and ME cash in again. It looks to me as if it definitely trended more south overall this run, the low track definitely appeared more east over SNE than its 00Z run last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:04 PM, Winston Wolf said: Had many of those 95/96. Small batches that just piled up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:12 PM, SnowMan said: What are TTs? It's basically a measure of instability. It does NOT mean thunder, but more of a convective or bursty nature to the snow..especially near the LLJ of warmer air off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:14 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Total totals On 12/16/2013 at 3:22 PM, CoastalWx said: It's basically a measure of instability. It does NOT mean thunder, but more of a convective or bursty nature to the snow..especially near the LLJ of warmer air off the water. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 2:56 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: so you're telling me there's a chance!? Lol. Rpm really thinks mid levels warm that much in a fast moving clipper to produce zr...huh!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:14 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It looks to me as if it definitely trended more south overall this run, the low track definitely appeared more east over SNE than its 00Z run last night It definitely came south this run agrees pretty well with the nam now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS is quite juicy over E areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Second s/w just isn't qui5e enough, but a nice 2-4/3-5 it seems. Congrats ME. If that second s/w is a bit stronger, it may change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 chunk of that is liquid over SE zones after a "thump" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:41 PM, CoastalWx said: Second s/w just isn't qui5e enough, but a nice 2-4/3-5 it seems. Congrats ME. If that second s/w is a bit stronger, it may change things. Downeast usually does well with these when they are late bloomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 On 12/16/2013 at 3:41 PM, CoastalWx said: Second s/w just isn't qui5e enough, but a nice 2-4/3-5 it seems. Congrats ME. If that second s/w is a bit stronger, it may change things. I really feel like this thing is going to have quite a few surprises. I may be just NW of the heavier bands. These events seem to have Portland as the western line often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Even though the low levels get mild in SE areas, it's quite cold aloft. There is not taint in the 850 level so it's going to be a very bursty kind of snow..even if the lower 500-1000ft get near and above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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