ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I figured this one is getting to about 3 days out now so its worth making a seperate thread for it. All guidance is in good agreement on a shortwave diving southeast from the Canadian Praries and bring a sfc wave with it that tries to redevelop south of SNE near LI....but to slightly varying degrees on the different models. The 18z NAM posted here is just for illustrative purposes and shows a pretty amped up system....you can see the strong vortmax tracking south fo the region and the associated redeveloped sfc low tracking over SE SNE....this particular solution would be pretty robust for anyone north of that low track. The ECMWF ensembles are pretty enthusiastic about this one as well. Best guess right now is a couple inches for many...esp the further northeast you are as that will give a better chance to catch a bit of Atlantic inflow. But this could surprise too and be a bit higher end advisory type stuff...we'll have to watch and see if it becomes a Lance Bosart Special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good call! I was thinking about starting this myself. This is a sneaky critter lurking out there in the not to distant future. The current bigger ticket item has most probably less into it. But, for cycles now the globals and non-hydro have been hitting at a TON of DPVA running out under our latitude and that is really playing with fire. Could be one of those exit stage right detonations that smokes eastern zones with 3 hours of heavy squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nice summary. This threat feels like a freeroll... playing with house money. It's comforting to have some intrigue from the EC ensembles. The NAM has been steadily ramping up the amplitude of the approaching s/w... not so useful maybe at the end of its range for the particular solution, but possibly the trend. SREF members starting to show a few mini-nukes. Probably an inch or two for most regardless... but I like the threat as a possible surprise for EMA, SENH, and coastal ME. Back when models were less sophisticated, a synoptic pattern like this one occasionally could evolve into a widespread major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This is modeled as one of those deals where those srly winds just off the deck add an instability value to it. High total totals kind of deal as the low levels warm significantly but cold enough in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Heh .6" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Maybe it'll work out but right now I have my doubts. 2 negatives I see, progressiveness of the flow and what looks to be a lack of ridging upstream to allow for much amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I think this period could bring a good amount of QPF in future runs, especially if the vort max runs south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Really like the looks of this..3-6 kind of a deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Some 18s GEFS members are ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Really like the looks of this..3-6 kind of a deal might as well make it 5-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 heh...NAM goes bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 heh...NAM goes bonkers. Was just talking about missing these redeveloping Clippers with you guys a week ago...and here we have one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Was just talking about missing these redeveloping Clippers with you guys a week ago...and here we have one! NAM goes crazy as surface low redevelops over LI, it keeps coming southward, but it doesn't stop surface temps from going above freezing even with 850mb temps below freezing. Rapid cyclogenesis occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 00z GFS shows strong cyclogenesis and is further southeast with the surface low, verbatim its 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Cmc on board tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 GFS is a tease..lol. I do like the look of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro also buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 0z Navy Nogaps is pretty impressive. Moderate snowstorm from PA to ME. It's sharp and amplified aloft. Gets the mid-level lows going pretty quickly over New England, with the heaviest precip in eastern areas. Probably not the best mid-range tool, but still good to see. I don't completely buy the Nogaps is west of guidance = guidance will trend west/stronger red flag idea since every synoptic setup is different and the model physics and atmospheric dynamics are way too complex for simple error corrections to be useful. But it's there if you want to run with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 GFS is still further south and so is the NAM although NAM is still in its useless long range. They both bomb out the clipper and produce near .25 to .50" of QPF for Cape Cod, MA while Downeast ME gets .50 to 1" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 meh for out this way--late developer. Enjoy easterners--especially you in Maine! 16.2/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 GFS doesn't like Downeast ME at the 6z run, but that's the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Still seems like a regionwide 3-6 or 4-8 fluff bomb type event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 2-4 seems reasonable p, nice addition to the ~ 8" need to measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Still seems like a regionwide 3-6 or 4-8 fluff bomb type event As it is now, I'd say the low-mid of your lower range from ORH-PSM. I'd put that higher second range you offer might work from the mid-coast east. For the rest of us, I'm sticking with 1-3". Hopefully we'll see some sharper and earlier amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 As it is now, I'd say the low-mid of your lower range from ORH-PSM. I'd put that higher second range you offer might work from the mid-coast east. For the rest of us, I'm sticking with 1-3". Hopefully we'll see some sharper and earlier amplification. Why are we no surprised you'd think that? 3-6 is easy for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Why are we no surprised you'd think that? 3-6 is easy for your area It really isn't that easy. If it sharpens and develops soon, it's easy. But indications are that it won't develop soon enough. Things can change of course, but that's my read on it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Wow gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Wow gfs Would that it could develop 100 miles further west...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Talk about a difficult one to point down when development occurs. Big bust potential on this one for some people on either end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Talk about a difficult one to point down when development occurs. Big bust potential on this one for some people on either end. folks in Maine have good things tolook forward to. Outside of ne mass, just he prepared for a little bonusbefire the cutter on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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