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December 16th-17th GL Clipper


Powerball

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1104 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013

.UPDATE...

GOOD THREE HOUR BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE/CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER WITH LOTS OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...HELPING TO CARVE/SHARPEN UP THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. SOLID 285 K
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING EVENING HOURS...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 2.5
G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY TO WORK WITH IN/AROUND 750 MB LEVEL WHERE
THE MAX LIFT IS. CROSS SECTION SHOWS AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IS NOT
UPRIGHT UNTIL REACH 600 MB LEVEL. MY INCLINATION/EXPECTATION IS
ABOUT HALF INCH RATES FOR 3 HRS (SOMEWHERE IN THE 3-7Z TIME
FRAME)..WITH COUPLE TENTHS ON EITHER SIDE OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN TIME FRAME.
THUS...EXPECTING 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. SO...INHERITED FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST THINKING AND NO PLANS TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
LOOK IN MORE DETAIL THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE IF THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR 3 INCH TOTALS SHOWING UP ANYWHERE...JUST IN CASE THE LIFT IS A
BIT MORE ROBUST OR DURATION IS TOUCH LONGER THAN EXPECTED AT THE
PRESENT TIME.

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Think a general 1" looks good for this for Toronto, but it wouldn't surprise me to see 2-3" fall in the lake band that'll likely setup. With an ESE/SE flow it'll likely be in the areas from Toronto and east that missed out on the LES during the weekend.

That's my call too. Last night's 4k NAM showed the LES band from downtown Toronto and points east towards Scarborough.

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