cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 If this system is going to amp up and bring a lot of warm air up from the gulf, I suppose eastern Iowa isn't a bad spot to be at this point. Yeah it's gonna be an interesting week watching this all unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Obviously this is on the extreme end of the spectrum (GHD storm) and the baroclinic zone won't be like this as it looks now but to fully realize the potential we need a storm to eject out and not shear out as it moves off to the northeast so it can continue to intensify and back the 850's to southerly or even backed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Canadian seemed to have updated 144 but not some panels before that....assuming time stamp is correct. looks good for Chicago...blows for cmh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 CMH doesn't stand a chance, might as well punt and get the life raft ready, buckeye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Sorry to jump in from the South - need to watch this thread due to driving concerns from ATL to DTW on 22DEC2013... wishing you all luck on the snow... worried about the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 CMH doesn't stand a chance, might as well punt and get the life raft ready, buckeye Straight to the point..well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Clipper system to the north plays a big part in preventing a full cutter-type scenario on the 12Z GFS. The Euro shows this system as well and it also prevents a full cut. Its speed will also be critical in determining p-types in the cold sector. Slower/weaker = mostly rain. Faster/stronger = a healthy mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 CMH doesn't stand a chance, might as well punt and get the life raft ready, buckeye this is a cruel 'hobby' less than 24 hours ago I was slated for 14" by the king himself **now I know what the MA weenies are always going thru** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Canadian seemed to have updated 144 but not some panels before that....assuming time stamp is correct. looks good for Chicago...blows for cmh I don't think that's good for anybody really. Trough is open and the low is screaming to the NE, with no resistance out ahead of it. Thicknesses relatively high too. Not sure I'm buying a wound up monster right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I don't think that's good for anybody really. Trough is open and the low is screaming to the NE, with no resistance out ahead of it. Thicknesses relatively high too. Not sure I'm buying a wound up monster right now. Low travels from mexico to ohio in about 18 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Sfc ridge on the CMC looks like it's in a better location to lock in some low level arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Screams rain....massive warm trajectories ripping out of the deep gulf. Congrats MSP Brown Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 this is a cruel 'hobby' less than 24 hours ago I was slated for 14" by the king himself **now I know what the MA weenies are always going thru** You dont sit in a great spot, but certainly not out of it yet. Many times we see the models start out SE, then go NW, NW, NW, then settle back down SE some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 With the depth of cold air and snow cover established, my guess is that the frontal zones will set up across n/c OH to s/c IL with a widespread freezing rain event likely to develop, mainly snow or ice pellets north of ORD to GRR to FNT, rain fog and 50s in s IN and s/c OH. The storm would most likely end with colder phase changes and a gradual plunge back into deep freeze across the region by 23rd west 24th east. Would expect intervals of mixed precip as well as freezing rain so perhaps not a damaging accumulation in most places but some risk of moderate icing around CMI-LAF-FWA-TOL. The mixed precip zone would extend into southern ON and bring some snow as well, trending to all snow north of about Oak Ridges to K-W to Grand Bend (linking to the previously outlined U.S. zone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Sfc ridge on the CMC looks like it's in a better location to lock in some low level arctic air.Agreed. EURO had this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Here's the GGEM at 132 hours. 540 line is way north (yes I know it can snow with thicknesses above that but generally you wouldn't want to be too far south of it for snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This run of the GFS is about 12 hours faster than the run from 06z. At 12z Sunday the low is already in Southern IN, the previous 3 runs had it in NE Texas at that time, something I'd watch to see if it is a trend or the 12z GFS being an errant run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 hard to tell for certain with the 24 hour intervals after 144, but it looks like in the extended ggem panels (between 144 and 168) a second piece might ride up the front. Of course this requires the weaker solution to pan out in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A little humor never hurts. Make sure there's no sharp objects in Jonger's sled trailer. I present, the 12z version of the artist formerly known as the nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like the UK has a farther nw track than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just looked. GFS showing the 0c line across southern WI @ hour 132, so it's looking like a rain event, with precious little backside change over for N IL, by hour 144. One would be inclined to punt, except for the fact it is still 6 or 7 days out. Edited to Add: At hour 192, and again, at hour 216, there appear to be a couple of clippers that move through S WI, and N IL, and with the 540 line in Central IL by then, the region might be able to squeeze a couple of inches out of those...... Timing and placement, obviously big factors here. Both systems lean toward .20 QPF. Might be the consolation prize for those of us that get rained on....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z UKIE goes from central TX to north of Lake Ontario in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 now watch the euro take it thru TN and slam DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z UKie still revved up. Shouldn't expect it not to be at this stage I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 incredible speed showing up on most models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The GEM was an improvement actually. At 00z it had a L in west cental IL at 12Z Sunday, now it has the L in central OH at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 incredible speed showing up on most models now. A Texas clipper. Euro should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 hard to tell for certain with the 24 hour intervals after 144, but it looks like in the extended ggem panels (between 144 and 168) a second piece might ride up the front. Of course this requires the weaker solution to pan out in the first place. Yeah, it does. You can see a 156 hour map at this link: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 incredible speed showing up on most models now. Yeah I think the 0z Euro took it from AR to Buffalo in 12hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just looked. GFS showing the 0c line across southern WI @ hour 132, so it's looking like a rain event, with precious little backside change over for N IL, by hour 144. One would be inclined to punt, except for the fact it is still 6 or 7 days out. Edited to Add: At hour 192, and again, at hour 216, there appear to be a couple of clippers that move through S WI, and N IL, and with the 540 line in Central IL by then, the region might be able to squeeze a couple of inches out of those...... Timing and placement, obviously big factors here. Both systems lean toward .20 QPF. Might be the consolation prize for those of us that get rained on....... 12 GFS still drops about 4 inches of snow even at MDW for this system....and that is using a 12:1 ratio .... which might be high even if we are looking at that run verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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