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Pre-Christmas Winter Storm Potential


Chicago Storm

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It would be really amazing if we're to get a system that can get southerly 850's in the south/warm sector and not SSW and throw that moisture up and over. Need the wave to not get sheared out though as it ejects.

 

 

 

75-80 kt 850 mb winds into the Ohio Valley on this run of the GFS. 

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nothing good is gonna come out of a deep trough bottoming out and going negative in north central Mexico.   Congrats to the nw subforum....   

 

 

I think you mentioned it earlier but a change that has shown up on recent model runs is less in the way of confluence/surface high pressure.  If that's legit then it does 2 things:  1)  opens the door to a farther nw track and 2) probably reduces the aerial extent of ice.  Given the impressive LLJ being progged, would still have to watch for WAA being underdone and borderline areas for snow getting a mix/ice instead. 

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If we want to get technical and look at soundings, it's pretty much all snow at ORD.

 

Yeah I think we'll see things tighten up as we get closer too.  A storm that gets as strong as this one should eventually develop a nice CCB.  At this point I'm just happy to see a more amped up version of a system compared to what we've been seeing off and on the last few days.

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If we want to get technical and look at soundings, it's pretty much all snow at ORD.

 

 

It's very close. My point was the low doesn't need to pass over Chicago for us to see rain...it's already close (and probably underdone) with a 996 in far southern Indiana.

 

There is a cold air problem with this setup.

 

On the plus side for those that end up far enough west, I'm sure the GFS is underplaying cold sector precip and probably struggling with mesoscale issues induced by rapid cyclogenisis.

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Definitely wouldn't rule out a rain event here given the strength of the ridging ahead of the system. But a better phased system that doesn't take a terrible track for us, such as over or south of IND, would probably be more liable to pull down the much colder air to the north. So a rain to snow or ip/fzra (if surface is cold enough) to snow scenario would be more likely in that case for Chicago. I think the only way we see all rain is if the system tracks on top of us.

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Yeah I think we'll see things tighten up as we get closer too.  A storm that gets as strong as this one should eventually develop a nice CCB.  At this point I'm just happy to see a more amped up version of a system compared to what we've been seeing off and on the last few days.

 

 

take it to the bank, amped is the way to go with this one.

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Perhaps someone has higher resolution of things at initialization....but from what I see...the GFS started out with the LP just south of the gulf of Alaska at 1008 when in reality it is already sub 1000 at 12Z...I know this isn't directly correlated to the system for this thread....but the impacts it has downstream (in time) may come into play...filed under FWIW

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It's very close. My point was the low doesn't need to pass over Chicago for us to see rain...it's already close (and probably underdone) with a 996 in far southern Indiana.

 

There is a cold air problem with this setup.

 

On the plus side for those that end up far enough west, I'm sure the GFS is underplaying cold sector precip and probably struggling with mesoscale issues induced by rapid cyclogenisis.

 

Yeah but with a 996mb low in southern IN and WSW-SSW 850's, that's not a situation where I'd assume the WWA is underdone, southery 850's then yes I'd expect it but the winds for now are more parallel to the baroclinic zone and not perpendicular to it (on both warm and cold side)

 

So in this case I'd assume snow as the precip type unless we get a more wound up system with the wave not shearing out as it heads northeast.

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Yeah but with a 996mb low in southern IN and WSW-SSW 850's, that's not a situation where I'd assume the WWA is underdone, southery 850's then yes I'd expect it but the winds for now are more parallel to the baroclinic zone and not perpendicular to it (on both warm and cold side)

 

So in this case I'd assume snow as the precip type unless we get a more wound up system with the wave not shearing out as it heads northeast.

 

 

I think the GFS is struggling with arklatex cyclogensis and I have high confidence in a much more wound up system.

 

 

If this system is going to amp up and bring a lot of warm air up from the gulf, I suppose eastern Iowa isn't a bad spot to be at this point.

 

 

great spot to be IMO.

 

Iowa to Madison to Moneyman look good right now

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