A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like t-storms rob the cold sector of moisture. no and this talking point needs to die. 12z GFS already bringing rain to ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Man, the ensembles should be very interesting. Could be some really amped up members. IIRC the GFS ensembles tend to lag behind the OP when it starts trending NW towards the Euro with these super deep diggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 For you to get rain it would have to pretty much go over you. ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well, the good news on this run for me is there looks to be absolutely no ice storm threat at all. Bad news is Columbus will be under water. nothing good is gonna come out of a deep trough bottoming out and going negative in north central Mexico. Congrats to the nw subforum.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It would be really amazing if we're to get a system that can get southerly 850's in the south/warm sector and not SSW and throw that moisture up and over. Need the wave to not get sheared out though as it ejects. 75-80 kt 850 mb winds into the Ohio Valley on this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 no and this talking point needs to die. 12z GFS already bringing rain to ORD. Ok. I see T-snow's comment about the shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Too bad no antecedent arctic airmass. Could have at least been a decent ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 nothing good is gonna come out of a deep trough bottoming out and going negative in north central Mexico. Congrats to the nw subforum.... If there was a nice fresh arctic airmass over the lakes, the potential for widespread snow would be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This will be a Bo storm.... Everyone else will have have dirty parking lot piles for Christmas day other than the lake effect areas of SW Michigan. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 nothing good is gonna come out of a deep trough bottoming out and going negative in north central Mexico. Congrats to the nw subforum.... I think you mentioned it earlier but a change that has shown up on recent model runs is less in the way of confluence/surface high pressure. If that's legit then it does 2 things: 1) opens the door to a farther nw track and 2) probably reduces the aerial extent of ice. Given the impressive LLJ being progged, would still have to watch for WAA being underdone and borderline areas for snow getting a mix/ice instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It won't be a MSP storm.... More like western Illinois and northern Lower. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 no and this talking point needs to die. 12z GFS already bringing rain to ORD. If we want to get technical and look at soundings, it's pretty much all snow at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 75-80 kt 850 mb winds into the Ohio Valley on this run of the GFS. Actually even stronger than that...more like 80-90+ kts. God dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 If we want to get technical and look at soundings, it's pretty much all snow at ORD. Yeah I think we'll see things tighten up as we get closer too. A storm that gets as strong as this one should eventually develop a nice CCB. At this point I'm just happy to see a more amped up version of a system compared to what we've been seeing off and on the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Actually even stronger than that...more like 80-90+ kts. God dang. Yep, need a more southerly component and bam. GHD had due south 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 If we want to get technical and look at soundings, it's pretty much all snow at ORD. It's very close. My point was the low doesn't need to pass over Chicago for us to see rain...it's already close (and probably underdone) with a 996 in far southern Indiana. There is a cold air problem with this setup. On the plus side for those that end up far enough west, I'm sure the GFS is underplaying cold sector precip and probably struggling with mesoscale issues induced by rapid cyclogenisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Definitely wouldn't rule out a rain event here given the strength of the ridging ahead of the system. But a better phased system that doesn't take a terrible track for us, such as over or south of IND, would probably be more liable to pull down the much colder air to the north. So a rain to snow or ip/fzra (if surface is cold enough) to snow scenario would be more likely in that case for Chicago. I think the only way we see all rain is if the system tracks on top of us. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah I think we'll see things tighten up as we get closer too. A storm that gets as strong as this one should eventually develop a nice CCB. At this point I'm just happy to see a more amped up version of a system compared to what we've been seeing off and on the last few days. take it to the bank, amped is the way to go with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It won't be a MSP storm.... More like western Illinois and northern Lower.Sent from my HTC6435LVW With that track i don't buy it being all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 With that track i don't buy it be all rain. Not a lot of cold air to the north for the storm to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 nothing good is gonna come out of a deep trough bottoming out and going negative in north central Mexico. Congrats to the nw subforum.... What sucks is for the most part we've had snowcover since Thanksgiving, yet we're going to end up with a green Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Perhaps someone has higher resolution of things at initialization....but from what I see...the GFS started out with the LP just south of the gulf of Alaska at 1008 when in reality it is already sub 1000 at 12Z...I know this isn't directly correlated to the system for this thread....but the impacts it has downstream (in time) may come into play...filed under FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's very close. My point was the low doesn't need to pass over Chicago for us to see rain...it's already close (and probably underdone) with a 996 in far southern Indiana. There is a cold air problem with this setup. On the plus side for those that end up far enough west, I'm sure the GFS is underplaying cold sector precip and probably struggling with mesoscale issues induced by rapid cyclogenisis. Yeah but with a 996mb low in southern IN and WSW-SSW 850's, that's not a situation where I'd assume the WWA is underdone, southery 850's then yes I'd expect it but the winds for now are more parallel to the baroclinic zone and not perpendicular to it (on both warm and cold side) So in this case I'd assume snow as the precip type unless we get a more wound up system with the wave not shearing out as it heads northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Plenty of cold air in the western/NW subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That run wasn't really that far off from the 0z Euro. Less wintry-side fun on the GFS, but track was fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ouch Sorry I forgot the GFS was gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 If this system is going to amp up and bring a lot of warm air up from the gulf, I suppose eastern Iowa isn't a bad spot to be at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah but with a 996mb low in southern IN and WSW-SSW 850's, that's not a situation where I'd assume the WWA is underdone, southery 850's then yes I'd expect it but the winds for now are more parallel to the baroclinic zone and not perpendicular to it (on both warm and cold side) So in this case I'd assume snow as the precip type unless we get a more wound up system with the wave not shearing out as it heads northeast. I think the GFS is struggling with arklatex cyclogensis and I have high confidence in a much more wound up system. If this system is going to amp up and bring a lot of warm air up from the gulf, I suppose eastern Iowa isn't a bad spot to be at this point. great spot to be IMO. Iowa to Madison to Moneyman look good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Too bad no antecedent arctic airmass. Could have at least been a decent ice storm.It's still way too early to write that potential off. A very tight baroclonic zone looks to develop and that usually screams sleet, freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.