gosaints Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 There is a bit of a limitation to how far northwest it can go. There is still a high dropping in from Canada and a northern stream piece of energy moving across Southern Canada at the time. So just like the over the top suppressed runs being unrealistic, an over the top phased bomb that cuts through Wisconsin would be unrealistic. Honestly what we are seeing from the Euro and the 06z GFS will probably be close to reality unless this thing completely stalls out in the Southwest, which is still possible as well. So throwing out the Canadian would be a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 There is a bit of a limitation to how far northwest it can go. There is still a high dropping in from Canada and a northern stream piece of energy moving across Southern Canada at the time. So just like the over the top suppressed runs being unrealistic, an over the top phased bomb that cuts through Wisconsin would be unrealistic. Honestly what we are seeing from the Euro and the 06z GFS will probably be close to reality unless this thing completely stalls out in the Southwest, which is still possible as well. cutting through WI, probably not (wouldn't write it off as you have) but far enough NW to give Chicagoland rain is definitely in play and one of the more likely solutions on the table IMO. No use getting too worked up but the left turn signal is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So is this the same storm that showed ohio getting buried under two feet of snow on the overdone wxbell euro map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 cutting through WI, probably not (wouldn't write it off as you have) but far enough NW to give Chicagoland rain is definitely in play and one of the more likely solutions on the table IMO. No use getting too worked up but the left turn signal is on. For you to get rain it would have to pretty much go over you, I don't see that in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 For you to get rain it would have to pretty much go over you, I don't see that in the cards. 6z GFS is still playing catchup with the shifts NW and already brings the 0c 850 line into the LOT area with the 850 low passing near Indy. IMO rain is definitely on the table for ORD and even more likely for DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Local forecasts seem to be leaning toward a rain event. We are forecast for upper 30's on Thursday, with temps falling on Friday, classic set up for a rain to snow event that leaves a mess, and little to cheer about. Conditions for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday: Wed: Sunny 34/31 Thurs: Rain 42/32 (I would dare say more like 44/36, but that's just me) Friday: Snow? 32/16. The stage is set for a sloppy mess to come through Chi-town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Local forecasts seem to be leaning toward a rain event. We are forecast for upper 30's on Thursday, with temps falling on Friday, classic set up for a rain to snow event that leaves a mess, and little to cheer about. Conditions for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday: Wed: Sunny 34/31 Thurs: Rain 42/32 (I would dare say more like 44/36, but that's just me) Friday: Snow? 32/16. The stage is set for a sloppy mess to come through Chi-town That's the 19th/20th storm...it's much more minor and likely to be mixy or plain rain. This thread is for the much more major piece of energy that follows Sat-Sun, although that timing could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 That's the 19th/20th storm...it's much more minor and likely to be mixy or plain rain. This thread is for the much more major piece of energy that follows Sat-Sun, although that timing could change. Oh, it' seems I was following the wrong storm..... Going back to the maps............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Oh, it' seems I was following the wrong storm..... Going back to the maps............... Don't feel bad. I was having issues keeping them straight myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z GFS little more phased/srn wave not off coast as much as 6z run through 90hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z GFS little more phased/srn wave not off coast as much as 6z run through 90hr. looks to go neutral at 120hr over southern TX...with some energy still trying to slide into the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 6z GFS is still playing catchup with the shifts NW and already brings the 0c 850 line into the LOT area with the 850 low passing near Indy. IMO rain is definitely on the table for ORD and even more likely for DTW. A big question with this is how much of a sleet/zr transition zone there will be. Jury is out on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A big question with this is how much of a sleet/zr transition zone there will be. Jury is out on that one. haha, yeah I'm not trying to get too cute. Just wanted to say that this doesn't have to cut over RFD to bring rain to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This is going to be a big run for someone. H5 look at 126hr in TX is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Screams rain....massive warm trajectories ripping out of the deep gulf. Congrats MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 996 low over Texarkana at 132 hours. Chicago safely below freezing at 138 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The moisture/theta-e feed off the gulf is scary impressive wow. Something I don't think we've seen since GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This run will alleviate Hoosier's drought concerns for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This is going to be a big run for someone. H5 look at 126hr in TX is impressive. 996 mb in southern IN at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 This run will alleviate Hoosier's drought concerns for LAF. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Winter side is kinda lame through 144 hours, but that's nitpicking 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Screams rain....massive warm trajectories ripping out of the deep gulf. Congrats MSP Not this run. Cold air should catch it in time to produce a pretty good snow swath as it looks at 138hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 broad area of cold deform snows through mizzu, IL, MI, N IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not this run. Cold air should catch it in time to produce a pretty good snow swath as it looks at 138hr. The GFS is still in the early stages of its baby step march NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Very impressive baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like t-storms rob the cold sector of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It would be really amazing if we're to get a system that can get southerly 850's in the south/warm sector and not SSW and throw that moisture up and over. Need the wave to not get sheared out though as it ejects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Well, the good news on this run for me is there looks to be absolutely no ice storm threat at all. Bad news is Columbus will be under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Chicago would probably start as rain or a mix based on this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Man, the ensembles should be very interesting. Could be some really amped up members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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