Stebo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 suppression was not the right word. How about a further south and east progression of the baroclinic zone....the battle will be between the strength of the pressing arctic high and the strength of the southeast ridge. Classic super moist set up for someone to get clocked. Btw, as much as I hated the sleet storm it was for us....is there any correlation between this potential set up and VD2007? I don't see the baroclinic zone shifting very far south and east into that strong ridge and the arctic high isn't that strong, compared to what we have been seeing 1035mb isn't that strong and the southeast ridge is forecast to be at its strongest and furthest west position thus far this winter. This matches up with the -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Those talking about the storm being suppressed, what is going to suppress it? I see zero evidence that it should be suppressed. There is no block to the North and furthermore there is a block to the Southeast. That right there should tell you suppression isn't happening. I think odds don't favor suppression, but a possibility might be if the northern stream gets too dominant and acts to suppress/shear out the southern wave as it tries to come north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think odds don't favor suppression, but a possibility might be if the northern stream gets too dominant and acts to suppress/shear out the southern wave as it tries to come north? Which is similar to what we saw earlier this month. Instead, all of the energy streamed out in several weaker pieces that favored the TN/OH Valley. But the window is certainly there for a solution similar to the GGEM/EURO ensembles though. While the SE ridge is there, we need just enough northern stream wavelength for those heights to actually build up into our region (like what happened with GHD 2011). This way the trough is able to take on a negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The GFS should be a better looking run with our system not as far off the coast at 102hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS has trended much colder with wave #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I wish I could see the 2m temp profile and precip type for my location (and a few others). Looking at the 850s, it doesn't look like the warm-up gets too out of control here. I know that many people are chasing the big one, but I would much rather take my changes with nickel and dimes and keep what I have on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS showed a nice run for the GTA atleast. Trended alot cooler than previous runs and now shows a nice 3-5" using 8:1 snow ratios. Other areas further south however look to be rain/mixing but only slightly above freezing. Looks alot better with the initial low this upcoming Friday-Satuday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Vort moving in from the NW to phase @ 144, looks like it might kick neg tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS has trended much colder with wave #1. New thread been give for this... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42019-december-19-20th-winter-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not liking where that confluence is south of Hudson Bay. May still be a suppressed run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 One mean looking storm in the making on the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Not liking where that confluence is south of Hudson Bay. May still be a suppressed run. Yeah, not sure how this is all going to shake out on this run. You have one thing saying north and another saying maybe not. System definitely stronger than previous run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS has trended much colder with wave #1. Yep. Wouldn't be surprised to see things trend cooler during that period either. GFS verbatim looks icy for us with the snowpack that's down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I wish I could see the 2m temp profile and precip type for my location (and a few others). Looking at the 850s, it doesn't look like the warm-up gets too out of control here. I know that many people are chasing the big one, but I would much rather take my changes with nickel and dimes and keep what I have on the ground. Agree. All of a sudden I may have double-digit snow depth by Tuesday here.....all I can think of is all those times we get warmth to stay around just long enough to melt the snow then it gets cold. Its not about keeping a snowpack just to look at stale snow lol, its a wonderful base. Say you keep a crusty 6-8" pack...yeah it will look dirty around the edges, but you get a 3-inch snowfall and bam, looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yeah, not sure how this is all going to shake out on this run. You have one thing saying north and another saying maybe not. System definitely stronger than previous run though. Confluence sort of shifts east a bit at 156 and there's a stringy vort dropping into the northern Plains that might attempt a phase. Might be too late though. It'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS develops a decent-looking southern-stream system at 156hr. It appears we may have a narrow window where it cuts northward some, but it has a cut-off look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Yep. Wouldn't be surprised to see things trend cooler during that period either. GFS verbatim looks icy for us with the snowpack that's down. Im not sure how things like this are factored into the models....but according to instantweathermaps, the GFS "thinks" the current (well, hour 3) snowdepth is 2-3" snowpack in SE MI when its actually 6-9". Now, the 00z GFS properly "thinks" the snowdepth is indeed 6-9" and all of a sudden its a colder run. However...the GFS still thinks the snowdepth is only a few inches in NW MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Confluence sort of shifts east a bit at 156 and there's a stringy vort dropping into the northern Plains that might attempt a phase. Might be too late though. It'll be close. Timing is everything and how it phases with the two streams. The SE ridge is key to how much it prevents suppression and how the HP across the North distributes the cold air. Its an ideal set-up for something big to happen if things fall perfectly into place. Still a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Storm weakens as it heads north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Confluence sort of shifts east a bit at 156 and there's a stringy vort dropping into the northern Plains that might attempt a phase. Might be too late though. It'll be close. At least the Hudson bay vortex should prevent this thing from cutting too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 At least the Hudson bay vortex should prevent this thing from cutting too much. Notwithstanding this run, I still think rain is the bigger threat than whiffing to the SE. Very impressive s/w in the southern stream that'll wrap up in no time if given the chance to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Storm weakens as it heads north.. Notwithstanding this run, I still think rain is the bigger threat than whiffing to the SE. Very impressive s/w in the southern stream that'll wrap up in no time if given the chance to phase. Agreed. Although I pretty much just looked at the 850mb/precip noob maps, the progression of this storm makes zero sense. It looks pumped and primed to morph into a monster cutter and then it just goes "lol nah....." and drifts through the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Notwithstanding this run, I still think rain is the bigger threat than whiffing to the SE. Very impressive s/w in the southern stream that'll wrap up in no time if given the chance to phase. That could happen, but I've noticed that the models take this on a E-NE trajectory (even the more phased solutions ala the 12z CMC) which keep us cold enough for ice and/or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's still sort of in fantasy-land at this point. Keeping an eye on it, but thinking this is going to be a rain-to-snow event, that is going to dampen some spirits. Current TV met forecasts have rain Thursday, and temps near 40, and then Friday temps in the low 30's, right around freezing, with falling temps later in the day. IF it winds up being a "mix" event we will get minimal backside snow. IF it goes the other way, and it becomes an all snow event, then, that's a good thing Obviously things will change, but I will keep watching this with guarded optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Agreed. Although I pretty much just looked at the 850mb/precip noob maps, the progression of this storm makes zero sense. It looks pumped and primed to morph into a monster cutter and then it just goes "lol nah....." and drifts through the south. Yeah, look at all the GOM it has..moisture...the good news is we are far out and anything can happen..However we know for sure that we got a storm to watch, and I think this one could be a biggie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 00z GGEM is a massive Lakes cutter...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ggem.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 CMC looks sorta like the GFS.. Maybe if Lake Huron moved to Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 CMC looks sorta like the GFS.. Maybe if Lake Huron moved to Tennessee. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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