gosaints Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 This thing could be explosive if we slow it down a little. Pretty wide range of solutions possible right now I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Per weatherbell (who's snow algorithms seem to be a bit off at times, mind you), the 12z Euro ensemble mean for DTW is 6"...with several 12"+ers Yeah the mean snowfall total map shows 6-10 ( based strictly on 10-1 ratios ) with the highest end of that range ( 8-10 ) between Toledo and Detroit. Almost a duplicate of what we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 LOL.. 18z GFS is suppression city but not much snow in the cold sector. A few inches along the river to just south of Columbus on into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Phillty to NYC 12-18.. The River areas into se Ohio end up okay ( looked like it was gonna move quicker ) with a stripe of 6-10 and a bulls eye of 10-12 by Cincy.. System takes it's sweet time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Wild inconsistency in timing between the 12z and 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 LOL.. 18z GFS is suppression city but not much snow in the cold sector. A few inches along the river to just south of Columbus on into PA. But it also came back in line with the other models for this being around the 22-23 as opposed to the 12z being on Christmas day. Nice hit for the southern half of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Wild inconsistency in timing between the 12z and 18z GFS. Why it is hard to take anything serious. Will probably see more big shifts like this till we atleast get it inside of day 5. Would not surprise me if the models even showed a track towards the UP/across MI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Why it is hard to take anything serious. Will probably see more big shifts like this till we atleast get it inside of day 5. Would not surprise me if the models even showed a track towards the UP/across MI.. I know you posted about the mean but what was the spread like on the 12z Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 But it also came back in line with the other models for this being around the 22-23 as opposed to the 12z being on Christmas day. Nice hit for the southern half of Ohio. The model actually shows another system for the 25/26th.. This one however would be rain to snow/les up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 I know you posted about the mean but what was the spread like on the 12z Euro ensembles? OP Euro was the only one tracking south of the river. Put it that way.. Had a few that take it over my head ( and even bomb it ) but the majority have a similar track to what we just had and another few bombing it just east of Detroit to near Cleveland.. Zero show a secondary coastal. Edit to add. Furthest east is near Cleveland ( just s/east ) and Furthest west Kalamazoo. Does not count the euro itself which we already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 lol this thread is way premature for the level of detail so far but I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 It's going to get juicy for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 lol this thread is way premature for the level of detail so far but I love it. Part of the fun with tracking this stuff. Nobody really knows where it will end up. Can make assumptions ( speculate ) but that is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Part of the fun with tracking this stuff. Nobody really knows where it will end up. Can make assumptions ( speculate ) but that is about it. we need a January '99 (or was it 2000)....Chicago blizzard. That was the one that came up pretty far west into an existing motherlode of arctic air and plastered everyone from Pittsburgh to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Ill sign up for that, pittsburgh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The models need better sampling just not out of the southern ull, but also the northern stream. It won't be resolved for days. If the northern stream is to progressive, the ull may stagnate for a couple days to Christmas. If the northern stream amps and digs a bit, it could phase into something impressive quicker(which the models are leaning). I think it is picked up by some impluse out of the north at some point. Lets note the PNA is forecasted to rise between the 20th and 25th. That suggests something in the 22-23 timeframe. this will seal the deal....and I agree on the timeframe...maybe even into the 24th....but much to sort through between now and then... given the proximity to the Christmas and the potential impacts there could very well be some winter weather flights to collect data out over the pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 we need a January '99 (or was it 2000)....Chicago blizzard. That was the one that came up pretty far west into an existing motherlode of arctic air and plastered everyone from Pittsburgh to Chicago. Was Jan 99.. Still a amazing event to me. Granted i lived on the eastcoast back then. Need one of these atleast once a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 this will seal the deal....and I agree on the timeframe...maybe even into the 24th....but much to sort through between now and then... given the proximity to the Christmas and the potential impacts there could very well be some winter weather flights to collect data out over the pacific Don't really want that PNA to go positive though if we are to have a shot at it unless ofcourse the storm really bombs. That forces a ridge out west which causes the trough to shift further east ( say bye bye se ridge ) as well as the storm track unless as mentioned the storm bombs. Ofcourse if you are further south/east then yeah a +PNA is what i would be rooting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Tons of energy is digging into the West Coast, so I would be very surprised if something "significant" doesn't happen somewhere during that time frame around the 20th-25th (even if whatever happens is suppressed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Don't really want that PNA to go positive though if we are to have a shot at it unless ofcourse the storm really bombs. That forces a ridge out west which causes the trough to shift further east ( say bye bye se ridge ) as well as the storm track unless as mentioned the storm bombs. Ofcourse if you are further south/east then yeah a +PNA is what i would be rooting for. right....just thinking that the system itself ends up being closer to the 23rd 24th timeframe (not in reference to PNA)...i'm leaning on a bomb scenario ATM ... who that helps/hurts at the moment is up for grabs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What does it take for a storm to bomb over land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What does it take for a storm to bomb over land? Ingredients that rarely come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What does it take for a storm to bomb over land? basic answer: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/188/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ...It tracking to Duluth, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 So this is something to watch for the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like there's going to be a pretty extreme temp gradient between cold and warm. A storm should develop along the front. Where it tracks? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I have a feeling my area is going to see heavy rain from this storm. Would love to see a sub 990 mb storm with snow but it will be fun tracking this for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Given that jet stream energy this storm will be intense. I think we might eventually have both a svr thread and a winter thread somewhere on the board for this one. 60 degree dews and temps are as far north as the Ohio River on the 150 hr. 18z GFS. Something to watch this week for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Those talking about the storm being suppressed, what is going to suppress it? I see zero evidence that it should be suppressed. There is no block to the North and furthermore there is a block to the Southeast. That right there should tell you suppression isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Those talking about the storm being suppressed, what is going to suppress it? I see zero evidence that it should be suppressed. There is no block to the North and furthermore there is a block to the Southeast. That right there should tell you suppression isn't happening. suppression was not the right word. How about a further south and east progression of the baroclinic zone....the battle will be between the strength of the pressing arctic high and the strength of the southeast ridge. Classic super moist set up for someone to get clocked. Btw, as much as I hated the sleet storm it was for us....is there any correlation between this potential set up and VD2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.