huronicane Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Had the 3-4" sleet event here a few years back...But still have not seen a legit ice storm. I'd be all for it. I've actually been a fan of the ice storms I lived through in Oklahoma. There was nothing quite like waking up at 4am with a thunderstorm at 27 degrees. Resulted in this: http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Atmosphere/images/Ice_Storm4_jpg_image.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We had a real bad ice storm here back in Dec '94 with 3/4-1" of glazing. No power for a few days. From a met standpoint it was fascinating, but the damage it does and being without power is a pain in the arse to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We had a real bad ice storm here back in Dec '94 with 3/4-1" of glazing. No power for a few days. From a met standpoint it was fascinating, but the damage it does and being without power is a pain in the arse to deal with. What were your temps prior to and during the event? Here in the city, we have a hard time getting much under 31/32 with a NE flow. The best ice events seem to have surface temps in the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We don't do sleet well here along the lake....lots of rain to (light) snow events, not too many heavy ip/zr events. There are a ton of changes in store...really interested to see how this double barrel type scenario evolves but right now this is looking like a classic heavy rain to 1-4" of cement for the city proper. EDIT: not final call Thinking about it I have seen several big ZR events here but IP events are not common here either. I don't recall any major IP event IMBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 I remember some great ice events growing up out in the burbs, things are clearly different now that i'm in the city. No doubt. The only good one that I know of here in "recent" times was back in the mid-90's. The city is a different story...very few sig events there since 1950-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 You guys need to google Canadian Ice storm 1998. Crazy stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 One note I will add about icing potential is that temperatures in the low 30s won't cut it for a fzra event with how heavy the precipitation will be falling. I have seen several heavy rain events at 30 and 31 degreees that provide little ice accretion due to the intensity. Temperatures typically need to be in the upper 20s for a significant ice storm with heavy precip. Edit: Alek beat me to it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Chicago, IL has a unique geography for freezing-rain events. The city's proximity to Lake Michigan and its urban environment have significant impacts on freezing-rain by creating warmer air temperatures that prevent rain from freezing at the surface. Chicago annually has fewer freezing-rain events compared to areas outside of the city, and there is a one- month delay in the timing of the first freezing-rain event for any given year. Historically, the number of annual freezing-rain events across the Great Lakes has decreased, and Chicago typically experiences some of the fewest events in the region. On average Chicago experiences less than three events per year, and the most events ever experienced in one year was seven. http://glisaclimate.org/sites/default/files/Freezing%20Rain%20in%20the%20Great%20Lakes%20(6.7.13)_0.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 I've actually been a fan of the ice storms I lived through in Oklahoma. There was nothing quite like waking up at 4am with a thunderstorm at 27 degrees. Resulted in this: http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/Atmosphere/images/Ice_Storm4_jpg_image.html Not bad. They make for great photo ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Latest GFS now shows more precip after the main even moves a bit east, and the 0C line moves farther south. This is for 18z Sunday. Here's a forecast sounding for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Why is there a big discussion about piles of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Percent what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We had a really significant ice storm down in central il in 04 nov 30th-dec 1st we easily had 1/2 inch to 1 1/4 inch of ice across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Anthony Farnell of Global News in Toronto seems to think rain is the most likely precipitation type with both Friday and Sunday's events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Why is there a big discussion about% ICE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We had a really significant ice storm down in central il in 04 nov 30th-dec 1st we easily had 1/2 inch to 1 1/4 inch of ice across the region from the link I posted, there is a zr maxima across the central portion of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I guess we will have to agree to disagree. The temps are forecast to be not too far above freezing. The snow still has probably 0.7" water content in it so that is sustaining power. I can tell you that we are FULLY on the same page with your last two sentences - Now this all depends if it's all a rain event. Hopefully we don't have to find out. I will agree with you Josh if my current temp forecast holds. It really depends on how warm it gets outside. Rain and low to mid 30s just compacts the snow but does not melt it quickly. It seems like once you start getting in the upper 30s and above the snow starts taking a beating more and more quickly (obviously). It will really matter how long it stays above freezing and how warm it truly gets. Right now we don't know what is really going to happen so we could just end up with a solid hard pack snow with lots of wonderful new snow on top OR it will be brown and ugly. The fun right now is just tracking and guessing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hyperlocal look at the Euro from WREX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 What were your temps prior to and during the event? Here in the city, we have a hard time getting much under 31/32 with a NE flow. The best ice events seem to have surface temps in the upper 20s. IIRC surface temps were fairly marginal, but it was enough to get the job done. During the height of the storm it was raining hard enough that there was a lot of standing water around. Seemed like most of the ice accumulated on elevated surfaces, like trees etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 IIRC surface temps were fairly marginal, but it was enough to get the job done. During the height of the storm it was raining hard enough that there was a lot of standing water around. Seemed like most of the ice accumulated on elevated surfaces, like trees etc. makes sense, especially given extremewx52's post. I think it's safe to say precipitation rates should be pretty high this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 You guys need to google Canadian Ice storm 1998. Crazy stuff I recall that storm big time. I was living north of Lapeer at that time and of the thumb in SE MI got some signficant Ice from that storm. I lost power from it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 We had a real bad ice storm here back in Dec '94 with 3/4-1" of glazing. No power for a few days. From a met standpoint it was fascinating, but the damage it does and being without power is a pain in the arse to deal with. That '94 event is the same one I mentioned above. The last good ice storm here...But I was much too young to remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Oh my gosh. 12 RGEM has 2.5" of straight freezing rain hitting YYZ this weekend..... is that even possible?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Where's that graphic from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 ^ looks good to me huronicane lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That '94 event is the same one I mentioned above. The last good ice storm here...But I was much too young to remember it. my brother and I skated around our front yard during that event. P sure we had a snow pack going into it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Where's that graphic from? probably a Euro weenie map with 15:1 ratios or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This thing looking decent for Madison as of now? Yes and Grand Rapids could be in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Hyperlocal look at the Euro from WREX: Yea, the ECMWF doesn't show that. Not that it really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Where's that graphic from? Mine? WREX in Rockford on WeatherCentral's Live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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