IWXwx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Good find, Hoosier. March 16-17, 1960 is almost as interesting. Who would think that a track from LAF to SBN would bring significant snow to Northern and Central Indiana in mid March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 18z GFS looks to give Toronto flooding rains out of this system. What a complete letdown. A classic Grinch storm.No it doesn't OB. You can't just look at the 850mb temp and assume that it's above 0 it's going to be rain. It isn't that simple. This has a classic ice storm signal written all over it. Certainly not what you want to see before x-mas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 No it doesn't OB. You can't just look at the 850mb temp and assume that it's above 0 it's going to be rain. It isn't that simple. This has a classic ice storm signal written all over it. Certainly not what you want to see before x-mas. Thanks for the input Toronto blizzard. I'm the first to admit that I'm not that good at deciphering 850mb temperatures... Still, an ice storm would still be a Grinch storm... Perhaps I'm the first one in the subforum to have a meltdown over this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Especially when its somewhat fresh...this snow has no chance of survival. I have to completely disagree. Id say the chance of surviving with a full snowpack here with the scenario discussed (33-34F and heavy rain) is about 90%. It would certainly sink quite a bit and lose its scenic appeal, but would still be a solid base to freeze up (think last years rock snow in early March) once the temps drop behind the storm. Snowpack acts as a sponge and soaks a lot of the water in if it isnt warm. On Feb 27, 2011 we had a 9" snowpack. We then head heavy rain and thunderstorms throughout the night with temps ranging all night from 35-36F and 1.08" of rain. The snowpack settled down to a waterlogged solid 5". I of course hope that we dont even have to see this scenario unfold lol. This pic was taken March 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Going to take 5 days of 50s and 2 inches+ of rain to melt down 25 inches of snowpack. But I'd rather have rain than an ice storm tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I have to completely disagree. Id say the chance of surviving with a full snowpack here with the scenario discussed (33-34F and heavy rain) is about 90%. It would certainly sink quite a bit and lose its scenic appeal, but would still be a solid base to freeze up (think last years rock snow in early March) once the temps drop behind the storm. Snowpack acts as a sponge and soaks a lot of the water in if it isnt warm. On Feb 27, 2011 we had a 9" snowpack. We then head heavy rain and thunderstorms throughout the night with temps ranging all night from 35-36F and 1.08" of rain. The snowpack settled down to a waterlogged solid 5". I of course hope that we dont even have to see this scenario unfold lol. didn't your snow fall as a pretty high ratio powder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Thanks for the input Toronto blizzard. I'm the first to admit that I'm not that good at deciphering 850mb temperatures... Still, an ice storm would still be a Grinch storm... Perhaps I'm the first one in the subforum to have a meltdown over this! No problem! The cOld NE winds out ahead of the storm is a low level arctic air signal. Still have lots Of time to figure things out but think the models are coming into better agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Who knows.... I'm much happier seeing it hit northern lower than central Ohio.... At least I can trek up there and play in it. X2........ I hope we get the snow up there, that would be great for the 2 weeks that we will be up there. Been a while since we had a real deep snow pack for the holidays. Am I reading the current snow fall maps correct by thinking pretty much everywhere south/east of I-69 will be getting rain with this big weekend system and north/west of it should see mostly snow in MI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 No problem! The cOld NE winds out ahead of the storm is a low level arctic air signal. Still have lots Of time to figure things out but think the models are coming into better agreement. Yes, the NE wind is by far Toronto's coldest wind, colder than even the north wind. I believe this is because it is the only wind that doesn't have to cross a body of water before reaching us, hence no moderation. Take a look at Ottawa this evening. 0F under an ENE wind, while we're in the twenties down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 No problem! The cOld NE winds out ahead of the storm is a low level arctic air signal. Still have lots Of time to figure things out but think the models are coming into better agreement. I feel like I am the only one who wouldn't mind seeing an Ice Storm/Ice Pellet storm. Mostly for the historical purposes since an Ice Storm in the GTA isn't very common. And I hope the models come in a lot colder since the south (Florida) is already crushing Toronto. God damn the Leafs suck (Sorry for going OT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Skilling went from talking about snow for Sat night/Sunday to talking about "wintry mix".... Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I feel like I am the only one who wouldn't mind seeing an Ice Storm/Ice Pellet storm. Mostly for the historical purposes since an Ice Storm in the GTA isn't very common. And I hope the models come in a lot colder since the south (Florida) is already crushing Toronto. God damn the Leafs suck (Sorry for going OT)Haha yeah I'm watching the game too and it's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 didn't your snow fall as a pretty high ratio powder? Fairly high ratio, but theres still a decent amount of water in it. I was actually going to do a core sample tonight. Dec 8/9- P 0.08", S- 0.7" Dec 11- P 0.01", S- 0.3" Dec 14- P 0.57", S- 8.4" Dec 15- P 0.02", S- 1.0" Dec 16/17- P 0.10", S- 1.6" So in the 12.0" of snow that has fallen since December 8th there has been 0.78" of liquid. Mind you Im NOT saying we wont lose a lot of snow, just saying we wont be at bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Skilling went from talking about snow for Sat night/Sunday to talking about "wintry mix".... Game over. It's sad you're rooting for slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 It's sad you're rooting for slop. Actually that reply was more of a "wink and nod" type of thing. I am actually rooting for snow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm thinking Sleetmageddon for Alek. Unless you are riding the northern edge of this storm, you will likely mix. There just isn't much in the way of deep cold air with this, it's mostly a quite shallow cA airmass. There's a reason, for instance, that the GEM was showing that huge mixing zone. The warm nose with this one will be quite strong even well north of the front. The real questions are: 1) how cold the lower level airmass will be after the initial front, 2) how quickly (or slowly!) the main low ejects from the Southwest, and 3) how quickly the northern stream clipper arrives to reinforce that airmass as the main low ejects from the Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 dang at that 1980 track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 this thread could get ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 This thing looking decent for Madison as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Fairly high ratio, but theres still a decent amount of water in it. I was actually going to do a core sample tonight. Dec 8/9- P 0.08", S- 0.7" Dec 11- P 0.01", S- 0.3" Dec 14- P 0.57", S- 8.4" Dec 15- P 0.02", S- 1.0" Dec 16/17- P 0.10", S- 1.6" So in the 12.0" of snow that has fallen since December 8th there has been 0.78" of liquid. Mind you Im NOT saying we wont lose a lot of snow, just saying we wont be at bare ground. Patches and piles all that will be left. 48 hrs above freezing temps with the amount of moisture being illustrated IDK. Now if it was the snow from last Feb where we picked 4-6" of the wettest snow known to man that had sustaining power. This has no sustaining power. The only chance I believe u have of sustaining this snow if warms and rains Friday just enough but does not melt it to much like sponge... Then it freezes quickly at night like into the teens where turns into a block of Ice. Now this all depends if it's all a rain event. Hopefully we don't have to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 This thing looking decent for Madison as of now? You're in the game for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 this thread could get ugly I smell a meltdown thread starting soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I'm thinking Sleetmageddon for Alek. We don't do sleet well here along the lake....lots of rain to (light) snow events, not too many heavy ip/zr events. There are a ton of changes in store...really interested to see how this double barrel type scenario evolves but right now this is looking like a classic heavy rain to 1-4" of cement for the city proper. EDIT: not final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 I smell a meltdown thread starting soon. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41851-winter-1314-bantercomplaint-thread-part-1/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 yeah, no need to keep talking about meltdowns that aren't happening. This thread is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 We don't do sleet well here along the lake....lots of rain to (light) snow events, not too many heavy ip/zr events. Had the 3-4" sleet event here a few years back...But still have not seen a legit ice storm. I'd be all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Skilling went from talking about snow for Sat night/Sunday to talking about "wintry mix".... Game over. He said all options are on the table and "substantial precipitation" for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Had the 3-4" sleet event here a few years back...But still have not seen a legit ice storm. I'd be all for it. Saw all the ice I could handle in Decatur in 2006. Pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Patches and piles all that will be left. 48 hrs above freezing temps with the amount of moisture being illustrated IDK. Now if it was the snow from last Feb where we picked 4-6" of the wettest snow known to man that had sustaining power. This has no sustaining power. The only chance I believe u have of sustaining this snow if warms and rains Friday just enough but does not melt it to much like sponge... Then it freezes quickly at night like into the teens where turns into a block of Ice. Now this all depends if it's all a rain event. Hopefully we don't have to find out. I guess we will have to agree to disagree. The temps are forecast to be not too far above freezing. The snow still has probably 0.7" water content in it so that is sustaining power. I can tell you that we are FULLY on the same page with your last two sentences - Now this all depends if it's all a rain event. Hopefully we don't have to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Had the 3-4" sleet event here a few years back...But still have not seen a legit ice storm. I'd be all for it. I remember some great ice events growing up out in the burbs, things are clearly different now that i'm in the city. For the time being, it looks like the whole area should warm up enough at the surface to prevent any major ice accretion...although the concern is certainly greater into the far western CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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