Jonger Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well... Its going to melt on Thur-Fri and Sat-Sun now. Parking lot piles. Myself, I might end up with a snow storm. Or not. There is no way we lose all this snowpack thu-fri. Temps may not even hit 40 as it stands and we have a solid 8-10" snowpack south of Detroit to the OH border. Not thur or Fri.... but by Monday morning it will, unless models change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 850 passes over Gary, would prefer that 50-75 miles further south. It does look like a double-barrel solution is gaining steam. Chicago may get significant snow but at this point I doubt it's an all-snow event (by that I literally mean 100% snow). Front-end cold air is just too marginal and most models have been iffy in that regard even prior to today's runs. The million dollar question is how long it takes to change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not thur or Fri.... but by Monday morning it will, unless models change.If its 33-34 it will be a white rockpack like last march. If it gets warmer then I'd worry about losing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not thur or Fri.... but by Monday morning it will, unless models change. If its 33-34 it will be a white rockpack like last march. If it gets warmer then I'd worry about losing it Who knows.... I'm much happier seeing it hit northern lower than central Ohio.... At least I can trek up there and play in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Waiting on 18z GFS Cobb data... the 12z run is really nasty for YYZ with over 0.7" of freezing rain. Thinking this has the potential to be a healthy mixing event like the 26/2/13 storm unless models continue trending NW with the best thermals. In that case, would be looking at a more widespread ZR threat across ontario if the snowpack and Que high can keep the low level cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 If its 33-34 it will be a white rockpack like last march. If it gets warmer then I'd worry about losing it Heavy Rain temps at 34. Good bye snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Nothing worse 33/34 rain, disgusting... ew...ew...ew.ew.e.we.we.we.w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Nothing worse 33/34 rain, disgusting... ew...ew...ew.ew.e.we.we.we.w Especially when its somewhat fresh...this snow has no chance of survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 sampling weenie alert....while parts of what becomes the SW off the coast of Cali may have been sampled by the network in Alaska....the northern stream energy that eventually tries to meet up after the CONUS trough kicks out of the is currently rounding the trough in the middle of the Pacific... maybe some partial sampling for the 00Z 20DEC model run....if not there, then not until 00Z 21DEC....and this is all given that that energy maintains the speed/strength that is currently modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Waiting on 18z GFS Cobb data... the 12z run is really nasty for YYZ with over 0.7" of freezing rain. Thinking this has the potential to be a healthy mixing event like the 26/2/13 storm unless models continue trending NW with the best thermals. In that case, would be looking at a more widespread ZR threat across ontario if the snowpack and Que high can keep the low level cold air in place. Models can't trend any more to the NW with this system and have us still get a decent shot of some sort of wintry precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Jerry Taft made his first call! 2-16" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So just got back in... how's Madison looking at the moment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I have a feeling that the battle ground between rain/snow is going to set up right over my backyard Whatever we get, I'm pretty sure it's going to be SLOPPY! Not looking forward to shoveling cement at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Jerry Taft made his first call! 2-16" of snow Gotta love him because that is about what the possibilities are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Models can't trend any more to the NW with this system and have us still get a decent shot of some sort of wintry precipitation. Would be very surprised if we didn't see significant amounts of wintry precip given the fact that I have close to a 10" base down. Sure, we will see some melting thursday/friday but its looking less impressive then previously thought. SFC high over QC looks pretty strong which keeps the NE flow ushering in cold SFC temps despite some LHR that could be occurring once the change over to rain occurs. Climatologically, it is harder to sustain long periods of ZR around the GTA so a mixed bag is definitely likely IMO. Any prelim thoughts for the GTA right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Would be very surprised if we didn't see significant amounts of wintry precip given the fact that I have close to a 10" base down. Sure, we will see some melting thursday/friday but its looking less impressive then previously thought. SFC high over QC looks pretty strong which keeps the NE flow ushering in cold SFC temps despite some LHR that could be occurring once the change over to rain occurs. Climatologically, it is harder to sustain long periods of ZR around the GTA so a mixed bag is definitely likely IMO. Any prelim thoughts for the GTA right now? Warm Air Advection with these kinds of systems cannot be stopped, regardless of a snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Chicago may get significant snow but at this point I doubt it's an all-snow event (by that I literally mean 100% snow). Front-end cold air is just too marginal and most models have been iffy in that regard even prior to today's runs. The million dollar question is how long it takes to change over. Exactly, and it never seems that these rain/mix to snow ever work out quite like we would wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Warm Air Advection with these kinds of systems cannot be stopped, regardless of a snowpack. In the low/mid levels sure... but there's going to be strong resistance at the surface given this type of flow. Snowpack is only going to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 From 25" of snow to a buncha rain...SMH....I'm hoping for a big change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 We will have to see if the NAM has any credibility going forward with it's pop an SLP over the Mexico/Texas border. While the H5 Vort max is still digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Some were mentioning the warm nose which looks to be strongest around 800mb, at least on the 18z GFS run. Here are 4 fcst soundings for ORD (from 102-120hr) The warm nose is obviously there but as precip moves in and you get evaporative cooling in that layer and with sfc wet bulb temps well below freezing, it looks like mostly if not all snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Chicago may get significant snow but at this point I doubt it's an all-snow event (by that I literally mean 100% snow). Front-end cold air is just too marginal and most models have been iffy in that regard even prior to today's runs. The million dollar question is how long it takes to change over. Exactly, and it never seems that these rain/mix to snow ever work out quite like we would wish There were a couple good examples to the contrary last February (2/7 & 2/26). If the system is strong/dynamic and doesn't take a terrible track for northern IL, we'll flip to snow. The ORD sounding 6z Saturday night from the Euro indicated the warm layer only barely above freezing (0.6C), which in the presence of strong UVV would easily flip to snow. If it's much warmer than that we'll have problems with a more prolonged period of sleet or freezing rain before switching to snow. Edit: similar point that Tsnow just made. Wet bulbing and dynamic cooling will play a big role in this event given the marginal thermal.profile to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 For those looking for some hope that there won't be any drastic NW shifts, I present this. I pulled these maps from a PDF titled "A Winter Weather Climatology For Northern And Central Indiana." It shows tracks of surface lows that brought significant snow to the area and you can see that many of them resemble the current projected path of our system. Keep in mind that these are tracks that gave northern or central Indiana significant snow and tracks that did not are not included on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 For those looking for some hope that there won't be any drastic NW shifts, I present this. I pulled these maps from a PDF titled "A Winter Weather Climatology For Northern And Central Indiana." It shows tracks of surface lows that brought significant snow to the area and you can see that many of them resemble the current projected path of our system. Keep in mind that these are tracks that gave northern or central Indiana significant snow and tracks that did not are not included on here. 1950to1979.png 1980to2005.png Interesting maps. I wonder how many storms with similar tracks did not produce significant snow in these parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 For those looking for some hope that there won't be any drastic NW shifts, I present this. I pulled these maps from a PDF titled "A Winter Weather Climatology For Northern And Central Indiana." It shows tracks of surface lows that brought significant snow to the area and you can see that many of them resemble the current projected path of our system. Keep in mind that these are tracks that gave northern or central Indiana significant snow and tracks that did not are not included on here. Sweet find. How about that track with the Nov 27-28, 1980 storm? That's wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Sweet find. How about that track with the Nov 27-28, 1980 storm? That's wild. Looks a little drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Interesting maps. I wonder how many storms with similar tracks did not produce significant snow in these parts? Not sure. Looks like this could be one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Not sure. Looks like this could be one of them. Yeah, wondering if this is the norm or not for that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Looks a little drunk. lol I don't want to go to OT, but that storm had three hours of SN/+SN on the morning of 11/27 for LAF. Then light snow on the 28th. Temps never got higher than 36 for the duration. Wouldn't have thought that with a track going overhead, straight from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 18z GFS looks to give Toronto flooding rains out of this system. What a complete letdown. A classic Grinch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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