Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 At 144 hours, the 12z Euro looks about 12 hours slower than 00z with the progression of the SW/Mex closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Ohio gets slammed with snow on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro favors another southern MW/Ohio Valley storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Ohio gets slammed with snow on the 12z Euro. When? Is this the 20th\21st storm or a following wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 When? Is this the 20th\21st storm or a following wave? 22nd-23rd which is the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Just for posterity Snow: ZR: This would absolutely stink...how bad this impact would be with Christmas looming....crippling if so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 From wet to suppression city in 1 run. Probably going to take a good 2 to perhaps 3 days before the models start to show some continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z Euro has what looks like a stripe of roughly 14-20" in the heavy band...some of the band may be sleet contaminated but I'm sure all of it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z Euro has what looks like a stripe of roughly 14-20" in the heavy band...some of the band may be sleet contaminated but I'm sure all of it isn't. December 2004 repeat on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 December 2004 repeat on this run? Ha, kinda looks like that but this one is oriented more WSW-ENE than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 December 2004 repeat on this run? I have no problem reliving that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Ha, kinda looks like that but this one is oriented more WSW-ENE than that. Cool. It's the first thing that came to mind, when I read Ohio/southern Midwest snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 EURO snow swath is actually further north than I would have thought. Lots 'o wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 EURO snow swath is actually further north than I would have thought. Lots 'o wiggle room. yippee bullseye... can only go down from here. I'm thinking weaker and further south will probably be the trend. As long as we stay out of Fzrain....I'll take plain rain over that. Speaking of 2004, many around here spent that xmas with no electricity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 yippee bullseye... can only go down from here. I'm thinking weaker and further south will probably be the trend. As long as we stay out of Fzrain....I'll take plain rain over that. Speaking of 2004, many around here spent that xmas with no electricity. Well you've sure been playing a hot hand lately, so maybe more of the same. On the other hand, it's early days and I'm thinking a more amplified solution plays out. I was surprised actually how much the 12z EURO shredded the H5 s/w in the Plains beyond 168 hours as it moved east. Something seems fishy about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Well you've sure been playing a hot hand lately, so maybe more of the same. On the other hand, it's early days and I'm thinking a more amplified solution plays out. I was surprised actually how much the 12z EURO shredded the H5 s/w in the Plains beyond 168 hours as it moved east. Something seems fishy about it. yep that wouldn't surprise me. Just seems the seasonal trend has been to flatten these things. I'd be curious to see what kind of frz rain threat is portrayed on that euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 From a modeling perspective, the thing that scares me is if the key features end up in Mexico for a while. That can wreak havoc...for a recent example, I'm a believer that it's the reason why the models struggled so much in the run up to the 2/5/2011 storm. That was one storm that caught just about everyone off guard here and I'd prefer that doesn't happen again. A.M. calls were 1" for Toledo. They ended up with more than GHD with 6.6". Crazy day. I have no problem reliving that. I mean I'm OK with it too, I guess. EURO snow swath is actually further north than I would have thought. Lots 'o wiggle room. and lots o' headaches for the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 euro ensembles mean are further north with this system. Surface low mean is across Ohio and or much like the system that just passed through. Oh and no coastal this go around. Similar snowfall as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 euro ensembles mean are further north with this system. Surface low mean is across Ohio and or much like the system that just passed through. Oh and no coastal this go around. Similar snowfall as well..Sounds like some of them were hits here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 That was one storm that caught just about everyone off guard here and I'd prefer that doesn't happen again. A.M. calls were 1" for Toledo. They ended up with more than GHD with 6.6". Crazy day. I mean I'm OK with it too, I guess. and lots o' headaches for the next several days. makes it more fun. Sounds like some of them were hits here. Does it really matter 8 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 makes it more fun. Does it really matter 8 days out? Good luck convincing others of that. But yeah the main difference is all of the ensembles ( except the euro itself ) eject the system a bit quicker. The OP Euro is alone with it's track that far south and ejection time out of the sw. Pretty wild though how nearly all ( 51 members ) are picking up on this system for being 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 We are overdue here. We had a 30+ inch storm in 96 and another 30+ inch storm in 04 so we were due last year. I guess a year late would be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Good luck convincing others of that. But yeah the main difference is all of the ensembles ( except the euro itself ) eject the system a bit quicker. The OP Euro is alone with it's track that far south and ejection time out of the sw. Pretty wild though how nearly all ( 51 members ) are picking up on this system for being 8 days out. you mean someone here needs to be convinced not to buy into a 168-192 hr. model solution? lol. Btw, looks like you're getting some nice LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 you mean someone here needs to be convinced not to buy into a 168-192 hr. model solution? lol. Btw, looks like you're getting some nice LES. You have been around long enough.. And yeah it has been snowing nicely today. Have already picked up over 2 inches from this.. Will probably end up in the 3-5 range when this all winds down later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 ILN in the long range leaning toward the Euro right now. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND AS WE GET INTO SOME LOW LEVEL WAA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH UP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTH...WITH LOW TO MID 30S IN THE NORTH. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOWN INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN. MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN ARISE AS THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT ON THROUGH OUR AREA AND KEEPING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z CMC ARE STILL TRYING TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WOULD BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND LIKELY LEAD TO SOME HYDRO ISSUES OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF...WILL TREND TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER AND KEEP PCPN ALL RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 You have been around long enough.. And yeah it has been snowing nicely today. Have already picked up over 2 inches from this.. Will probably end up in the 3-5 range when this all winds down later tonight. yea believe me, I wouldn't be shocked in the least for the usual run showing the low to Columbus or Toledo to make it's appearance. Although, inside 168, the euro usually likes to start north and move south. In fact this was a snowstorm for Detroit as depicted the last couple of runs.....that's why I'm more worried about it ending up suppression city, (I know strictly anecdotal). But who knows At least someone in the subforum looks to get a nice blanket of snow pre-xmas. Hopefully no one gets an icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 more amped, more bombing, less progressive then we have seen this winter are my thoughts for the system in the 23rd timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 yea believe me, I wouldn't be shocked in the least for the usual run showing the low to Columbus or Toledo to make it's appearance. Although, inside 168, the euro usually likes to start north and move south. In fact this was a snowstorm for Detroit as depicted the last couple of runs.....that's why I'm more worried about it ending up suppression city, (I know strictly anecdotal). But who knows At least someone in the subforum looks to get a nice blanket of snow pre-xmas. Hopefully no one gets an icestorm All about timing of when it ejects out of the sw. One of the known euro biases is holding energy in the sw for too long. Granted it is supposedly not as bad as in years past. I personally don't see suppression. Lacking -NAO and no blocker up north for a 50/50 type deal either. Ofcourse that can all change on a dime too being so far out. My belief is the quicker system 1 ( late this week ) moves off the more the door opens for a further north/nw track and this does not take into account however quickly or slowly the UL system ejects out of the sw which will have a say. In short? Near impossible to say how far nw or suppressed this thing will be this far out. Just take it one day at a time. I'll feel better about predictions once we have this thing inside of day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Per weatherbell (who's snow algorithms seem to be a bit off at times, mind you), the 12z Euro ensemble mean for DTW is 6"...with several 12"+ers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 yea believe me, I wouldn't be shocked in the least for the usual run showing the low to Columbus or Toledo to make it's appearance. Although, inside 168, the euro usually likes to start north and move south. In fact this was a snowstorm for Detroit as depicted the last couple of runs.....that's why I'm more worried about it ending up suppression city, (I know strictly anecdotal). But who knows At least someone in the subforum looks to get a nice blanket of snow pre-xmas. Hopefully no one gets an icestorm I don't see suppression being a major concern at this point (as in hitting the southern fringes of the subforum or farther south) given the progged robust southeast ridge. I guess anything is possible but it seems like the lower probability scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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