Pre-Christmas Winter Storm Potential

[weatherbo]

Okay, we are still a few days out, right now, models are depicting the  850's will be above zero, and surface  temps are marginal, at best.  Local forecasts are anywhere from 30 to 33 for Sunday. By late Sunday, 850's go below zero, and surface temps are about 30, perhaps.  This would give a flip flop between snow, and rain/snow mix. 

 

I am not buying, say, more than 4" out of this, if we do get snow.  Worst case, we have sleet, freezing rain, and some flurries blowing around after the precip passes east.

 

Still plenty of runs to go, but, the GFS has been more or less consistent with temps for the past few runs, so, in my mind, it's kind of hard to argue with it.

Can't wait to read your sig when this ones over.

[cyclone77]

Man, just look at the moisture feeding into this thing.  This is at 18z Sat off the GFS.  Huge swath of 65-70 degree dews roaring northward on 50-70kt winds just above the boundary layer.  You can understand why the models are going completely ape**** with the QPF.

 

[IWXwx]

Yep, I'm going to have to seriously consider analyzing resources to deal with some bad flooding in our area with the quick snowpack release and a potential for heavy rain on frozen ground.

[LizardMafia]

Might be some overlapping of days, so it may be a moot point...but calendar day record highest precipitation for Indianapolis for both Saturday and Sunday.

 

Dec 21: 1.49" in 1918

Dec 22: 1.62" in 1981

 

And for the heck of it, highest calendar day for December all-time: 3.46" on December 3, 1873

At least my weekend forecast isn't in question... Rain and watch my snowpack melt away..

[Indystorm]

Yes, the most consistent things I can take from the models thus far are that there will be an intense storm this weekend and a huge amount of moisture flowing northward.  Everything else at this moment is still up for grabs IMO.

[Jrad08]

Yep, I'm going to have to seriously consider analyzing resources to deal with some bad flooding in our area with the quick snowpack release and a potential for heavy rain on frozen ground.

I Noah guy if you need to look into getting an Ark...

[RJSnowLover]

LOT Weather story:

 

 

Just in time for the last weekend before the holidays, it looks like Mother Nature may have some shenanigans up her sleeve! It's looking like a big storm system with lots of moisture could track into the Ohio Valley bringing the potential for a winter storm to the region. It is too early to say how much snow might fall and where it might fall. At this point the possibilities for northern Illinois and northwest Indiana range from a big snow storm, to some ice, or rain, to possibly even little or no precipitation if the storm happens to track farther south than expected! At this point, areas in red on the map should keep a close eye on later forecasts for the weekend and keep in mind that travel could become difficult in those areas!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=lot

[MidwestChaser]

I Noah guy if you need to look into getting an Ark...

 

[hawkeye_wx]

The trend is certainly Iowa's friend.  I'm happy to see the models moving the snow back across my area, although with so many unknowns I'm not getting too excited yet.  A couple more days of models will be helpful.

[IWXwx]

http://instantrimshot.com/classic/?sound=rimshot

[Harry]

meh.. No use in getting excited or deflated yet.. Still too early. Kind of expected as we cross inside the 120hr mark.. The next day or two should begin to tell the real story..

[MidwestChaser]

Okay, we are still a few days out, right now, models are depicting the  850's will be above zero, and surface  temps are marginal, at best.  Local forecasts are anywhere from 30 to 33 for Sunday. By late Sunday, 850's go below zero, and surface temps are about 30, perhaps.  This would give a flip flop between snow, and rain/snow mix. 

 

I am not buying, say, more than 4" out of this, if we do get snow.  Worst case, we have sleet, freezing rain, and some flurries blowing around after the precip passes east.

 

Still plenty of runs to go, but, the GFS has been more or less consistent with temps for the past few runs, so, in my mind, it's kind of hard to argue with it.

 

Weren't you staying away from the models until Friday?

[weatherbo]

meh.. No use in getting excited or deflated yet.. Still too early. Kind of expected as we cross inside the 120hr mark.. The next day or two should begin to tell the real story..

i'm neither excited or deflated.  my gut has been telling me this is a southern lakes storm.  I'll see an inch or two from it and have a north east flow.

[Spwild47]

This storm almost has the look of one of the rare ones that could deliver 1-2" of liquid followed by quite a dump on the back side with this double barrel structure of the surface lows.  If that ends up being the case this one will be very hard to pin down right to the end, as those systems always end up being very tricky.  Gonna be an interesting week to be sure.

 

Euro map is holding back some backside 24-30 hours in at certain spots

[stormtrackertf]

IKK has gone from like 20" to 4" on the wxbell clown maps in 2 runs.

Detroit went from 25" to 0".

[RJSnowLover]

Here's the article that this graphic came from:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/christmas-travel-forecast-delays/21048826

[Harry Perry]

Yeah, the models always bounce back and forth. They'll end up coming south again. Bet!

[A-L-E-K]

LOT drops the all snow and introduces wintery mixed bag...clearly the right call at this time.

[michsnowfreak]

Even the warm scenarios here are 33F to at most 34F with heavy rain. We will have frozen ground and probably still a decent snowpack down. This could definitely be interesting.

[weatherbo]

'copter^

that's as good a guess as any

[hm8]

Dtx

BAJA CALIFORNIA CUTOFF LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD

OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT SURPRISINGLY, MODELS DIFFER AS TO

HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS. HOWEVER, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO

AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS OUR

FIRST SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWS ON

ITS HEELS. A VERY TIGHT SW/NE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE

WILL SET UP OVER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY

UPPER JET. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z SUNDAY TO AROUND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z MONDAY.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD WITH GULF MOISTURE

BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. GFS IS

SHOWING PWATS TO 1"+ OVER OUR SOUTH, WHICH WOULD BE +2 SD FOR

DECEMBER. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP

OVER OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME,

BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN P-TYPE OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT

LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. IN ADDITION TO RAIN (MOST LIKELY

OVER OUR SOUTH) AND SNOW (MOST LIKELY OVER OUR NORTH), WE COULD ALSO SEE A

PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER

SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA MAY SUPPLY THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WHILE A

PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IS ESTABLISHED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE H9-H7

LAYER. THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR FUNNELING

BACK IN.

[Geos]

I got a wintry mix Saturday night, then all snow likely on Sunday, high 29°.

All snow across the border in Wisconsin Saturday night and on.

[A-L-E-K]

that's as good a guess as any

 

 

it's not a big deal but neither the euro, gfs, ukmet, ggem, etc have a low track like that. It's just a crappy accu graphic.

[A-L-E-K]

LOT...

 

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SIMILAR COLD SETUP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE

WEEKEND INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. WESTERN MID-LVL RIDGE MAY BEGIN

TO AMPLIFY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH

POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS

CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A ROBUST WEATHER SYSTEM SUN LIFTING

NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/EASTERN

TEXAS...WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THIS EVENT.

THEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS MUCH COLDER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE

CWFA WITH TEMPS ALOFT RETURNING TO -10 TO -14 DEG C AT 850MB FOR

EARLY CHRISTMAS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO

LOW 20S.

CONFIDENCE IN SUNDAY SYSTEM...HIGH.

CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS...MEDIUM/HIGH.

 

 

isn't that old...

[Chicago Storm]

isn't that old...

Yes. Double time-stamp ftl.

[harrisale]

it's not a big deal but neither the euro, gfs, ukmet, ggem, etc have a low track like that. It's just a crappy accu graphic.

 

Dunno, looks a lot like the GGEM output to me in terms of p-types. Obviously the red arrow low 'track' is complete wishwash.

 

Regardless still a typical accu graphic.

[chances14]

DTX

 

BAJA CALIFORNIA CUTOFF LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT SURPRISINGLY, MODELS DIFFER AS TO
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS. HOWEVER, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO
AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS OUR
FIRST SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWS ON
ITS HEELS. A VERY TIGHT SW/NE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SET UP OVER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER JET. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z SUNDAY TO AROUND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z MONDAY.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD WITH GULF MOISTURE
BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS TO 1"+ OVER OUR SOUTH, WHICH WOULD BE +2 SD FOR
DECEMBER. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP
OVER OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN P-TYPE OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. IN ADDITION TO RAIN (MOST LIKELY
OVER OUR SOUTH) AND SNOW (MOST LIKELY OVER OUR NORTH), WE COULD ALSO SEE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA MAY SUPPLY THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WHILE A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IS ESTABLISHED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE H9-H7
LAYER. THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR FUNNELING
BACK IN.

 

I have a feeling that the battle ground between rain/snow is going to set up right over my backyard

[A-L-E-K]

Dunno, looks a lot like the GGEM output to me.

 

even the GGEM (the furthest east of the bunch) has the surface low in western OH.

 

Model consensus on surface low(s) between far S. IL and western OH is solid...which would normally be decent for many of us but the ULL picture is ugly.

[chances14]

here's GRR thoughts

 

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT LOWER MICHIGAN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION SATURDAY WILL TRACK NE AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ONCE AGAIN IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MANY SPECIFICS GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION AND EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE SYSTEM. IN THIS REGARD 12Z GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
HEAVIEST SWATH OF PCPN WOULD STAY SE OF OUR FCST AREA... BUT THAT A
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW COULD STILL AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FCST AREA
FAR TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW TRACK BUT THAT THE DRY SLOT COULD GET
UP INTO SOUTHERN LWR MI REDUCING POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS.

HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT FOR NUMEROUS CONSECUTIVE
RUNS NOW IN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
GULF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL REACH AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOWER MICHIGAN. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH A SFC LOW TRACK FROM NEAR IND NE TO BETWEEN
TOL AND CLE... WHICH IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF
FORECAST AREA TO GET VERY HEAVY SNOW. THIS NOTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE 12Z GLOBAL CANADIAN. 12Z UKMET GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW NEAR THE
MI/IN STATE LINE AT 12Z SUNDAY BUT IS AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S FURTHEST
NORTHWEST SFC LOW TRACK.

THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD COME
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY... BUT THAT SIGNIFICANT
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW WOULD LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR FCST AREA.

IN THE NEARER TERM... INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN
TO INCLUDE FZDZ/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE NEAR TO MAINLY
NORTH OF I-96 WITH PCPN TYPE LIKELY IN MAINLY LIQUID FORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERNMOST FCST AREA. MEANWHILE P-TYPE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY BE PLAIN LIGHT SNOW.
COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME FOG IN THAT TIME FRAME AS WELL GIVEN HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND AS THE TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD BECOMES SMALL.

ALSO OF NOTE... TEMPS WILL FALL TO BELOW TO POTENTIALLY MUCH BELOW
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH
MAX TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE TEENS TO TWENTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SNOW (COMBINATION LAKE EFFECT AND
UPPER SHORTWAVES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW).

[Stebo]

Dtx

BAJA CALIFORNIA CUTOFF LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD

OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT SURPRISINGLY, MODELS DIFFER AS TO

HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS. HOWEVER, ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO

AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS OUR

FIRST SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND THE SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWS ON

ITS HEELS. A VERY TIGHT SW/NE ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE

WILL SET UP OVER MICHIGAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY

UPPER JET. SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT 00Z SUNDAY TO AROUND LAKE ERIE BY 00Z MONDAY.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GOOD WITH GULF MOISTURE

BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. GFS IS

SHOWING PWATS TO 1"+ OVER OUR SOUTH, WHICH WOULD BE +2 SD FOR

DECEMBER. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF PRECIP

OVER OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME,

BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN P-TYPE OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TIGHT

LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. IN ADDITION TO RAIN (MOST LIKELY

OVER OUR SOUTH) AND SNOW (MOST LIKELY OVER OUR NORTH), WE COULD ALSO SEE A

PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER

SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA MAY SUPPLY THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WHILE A

PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE IS ESTABLISHED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE H9-H7

LAYER. THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR FUNNELING

BACK IN.

 

DTX is seeing what I am with respect to the low-level cold air. That to me is a bit troublesome considering the amount of liquid equivalent being shown. I mean realistically all three scenarios are bad. Heavy snow is a travel nightmare, an ice storm is an even worse nightmare and you add in power issues and heavy rains with the snow pack on the ground and a frozen ground under that would lead to big time flooding especially if we get 2-3" of rain. All the area rivers are frozen already so the water will have an extremely hard time draining off.