Toronto4 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Why doesn't Lk Ontario save my butt? I'm starting to get concerned for a major ice storm in Toronto Saturday night into Sunday. Hopefully models cool the upper levels a bit to allow more sleet to fall than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 southern Kansas getting dumped on at 12z Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Double barrel low. Interesting. Only question left for LAF is 35 and rain or 55 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Losing about 50 miles of buffer zone on each Euro run. Hopefully we can get the baroclinic zone to shift a bit back south but the trend is not my friend. Might as well enjoy the 4 or so Euro runs with 12"+ IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Double barrel low. Interesting. Only question left for LAF is 35 and rain or 55 and rain. punting 33 and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 EURO definitely warmer. Gonna have mixing issues well north of where they were on the 0z run. EURO is slightly warmer, yes, but it shows a nice snowstorm for the GTA with 10-15". Could be some ice/freezing rain mixing in at times but overall its another beautiful run for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm starting to get concerned for a major ice storm in Toronto Saturday night into Sunday. Hopefully models cool the upper levels a bit to allow more sleet to fall than freezing rain. When's the last time we had a devastating ice storm? March 2007 and April 2003 were close but we always seem to mix with snow and/or sleet and avoid widespread damage. Maybe climo (or plain luck) will strike again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like the Euro has backed off a bit on snow amounts overall compared to some of the crazy runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 punting 33 and rain? Seems like a good consensus call. No model is really close to that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Euro would indicate an ice storm for this area followed by several inches of snow with the second surface low. Verbatim about 0.5-0.75" of liquid falls with temps shown in the mid to upper 20s. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 EURO is slightly warmer, yes, but it shows a nice snowstorm for the GTA with 10-15". Could be some ice/freezing rain mixing in at times but overall its another beautiful run for us. Really? The 0c 850mb line is to our north at 12z Sunday. Those wxbell maps are not accurate on the southern periphery I've heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Lol. One model run and everyone throws a fit. Glad I am not the only one who had a meltdown...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 IKK has gone from like 20" to 4" on the wxbell clown maps in 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I think I am giving it a break until at least late this afternoon. I was going to say "until Friday" but that would be a lie..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Really? The 0c 850mb line is to our north at 12z Sunday. Those wxbell maps are not accurate on the southern periphery I've heard.Those maps could be taking into account the sleet and freezing rain that will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 When's the last time we had a devastating ice storm? March 2007 and April 2003 were close but we always seem to mix with snow and/or sleet and avoid widespread damage. Maybe climo (or plain luck) will strike again. I wasn't born then, but there was a major ice storm on January 14-15, 1968 that gave downtown Toronto over an inch of freezing rain. It was followed by a foot of snow. On January 27, 1994, about 15-20 mm of freezing rain feel and that forced the shutdown of Pearson Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Heaviest band literally over Chicago metro to Alek's place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Those maps could be taking into account the sleet and freezing rain that will happen. That's what I'm thinking. Although the sfc low does stay to our south on the EURO unlike the other models. Maybe we transition to +SN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Really? The 0c 850mb line is to our north at 12z Sunday. Those wxbell maps are not accurate on the southern periphery I've heard. It starts off as snow, perhaps a nice 3-5" then transitions to Freezing rain/Sleet/snow together before it transitions back over to snow and another 3-5". Temperatures are marginal. Might be some rain mixed in closer to the lake however, Its cooler the further inland you go. Its a close one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 12z ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 IKK has gone from like 20" to 4" on the wxbell clown maps in 2 runs.great consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Heaviest band literally over Chicago metro to Alek's place I suspect soundings would show there's significant mixing over my place but can't say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It starts off as snow, perhaps a nice 3-5" then transitions to Freezing rain/Sleet/snow together before it transitions back over to snow and another 3-5". Temperatures are marginal. Might be some rain mixed in closer to the lake however, Its cooler the further inland you go. Its a close one. This may be one of the rare cases where 850 temps are above freezing, but surface temps are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That's what I'm thinking. Although the sfc low does stay to our south on the EURO unlike the other models. Maybe we transition to +SN?I'll get text soon. When it updates I'll tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Indy is going to be such a mess with all that rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The models are not picking up on exactly how wide of a ice zone this should have, you have a high extending into Quebec and would be funneling down low level cold air on the North side of this system. The GGEM painting such a wide area of rain north of the low track is a red flag for ice potential, as models always struggle shallow cold air advecting in from the northeast in these situations. Plus it isn't like the 850mb temps on the north side of the low are extremely warm, unless you are expecting snow. Realistically this has a very real ice storm potential on the north side of the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 IKK has gone from like 20" to 4" on the wxbell clown maps in 2 runs.great consistency. The track is pretty much the same, so good consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 IKK has gone from like 20" to 4" on the wxbell clown maps in 2 runs. My backup plan is blowing up. Theme of today I guess is battle ground for the wintry side (for all forms/types), runs from around St. Louis up to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 My backup plan is blowing up. Theme of today I guess is battle ground for the wintry side (for all forms/types), runs from around St. Louis up to Chicago. It could work if you're willing to travel for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I suspect soundings would show there's significant mixing over my place but can't say for sure. EURO gives you 14-15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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