hm8 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm not sure how much if any of the cold air issues can be attributed to speed differences but it's worth watching. Also seems like the trend has definitely been colder for the first wave as we get closer to it. For whatever that's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah if the Euro and it's cast of ensembles come out nearly identical to the last few runs it's gonna be very very hard to make an argument against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Still early in the game but doubts are going to creep in about this being massive/potentially historic if other models don't jump on board with the Euro in the next couple days. The Euro consistency in showing something massive is a good sign though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Another? The last two runs were nearly identical. You're right, but the Control run at 0z was a step NW from the OP at 12z yesterday. A very slight NW bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It looked like it nudged north (especially the southern/eastern extent of snows) but i'm not seeing what you are. Either way, i'll be very surprised if 12z it isn't warmer for ORD. WxBell snowmaps did have a sharper southern gradient to the snow maps but we all know how accurate those are. Track was the same for all intents and purposes. It's not like we haven't seen the Euro hold on to its own idea when it was in strong disagreement with other models before though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 It looked like it nudged north (especially the southern/eastern extent of snows) but i'm not seeing what you are. Either way, i'll be very surprised if 12z it isn't warmer for ORD. Warmer isn't north. The track was the same. Temps/precip type is another issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 You're right, but the Control run at 0z was a step NW from the OP at 12z yesterday. A very slight NW bump. No one is talking about the control run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Alek is trying to wish cast this thing into a MSP special. 12z GGEM is pretty close to a fairly serious ice storm for STL. Gives a good thump of it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 How could they exclude the FIM, DGEX, and experimental 384hr RAP from the disco?? it looks like no extra sampling flights or balloons for that matter over the next 72 hours....perhaps once energy moves on shore a little help??? NOUS42 KWNO 171413 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1412Z TUE DEC 17 2013 THE 12Z NAM STARTED ON TIME. 12Z NAM RAOB RECAP... 76405/LAP - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 76256/GYM - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS.. 70414/SYA - NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM.. A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 And the 12z UK obliges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 And the 12z UK obliges. uncle.gif Alek's new model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Taking the 12z GEM precip typing algorithm verbatim paints an extremely scary scenario for two separate areas regarding significant icing. The Quincy to Peoria area get 12hrs straight moderate to heavy freezing rain, while the Toronto areas get much the same. Verbatim the QC would get 9-12hrs of sleet lol. Sleet storm! Better than an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Surface temps for Sunday 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 850 temps, for Sunday, 12z Also, depicting the low, right overhead. Gee, if that doesn't spell sloppy mess, I don't know what does. So, precip type is going to be a big concern here. Surface temps are marginal at 30-35, maybe higher, maybe lower, but this would be, at this point, one of those situations, if it verifies, where temps will fluctuate a degree or two on either side of freezing, and precipitation if it is all snow, will be heavy and wet, or will flip between snow, and snow/rain mix. . the 850's are colder, over more of the NE IL area, so what that will spell is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Interesting spread on the GFS Ensembles, a lot of amplified, warm ones, some warm even as far west as Madison lol. The Euro will not be suppressed most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sleet storm! Better than an ice storm. Ha, I'd take a sleet storm over another miss southeast this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Alek's new model of choice. Plenty of choices with the 12z GEFS too. P010 looks like a sure winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Plenty of choices with the 12z GEFS too. P010 looks like a sure winner. Where are you getting them from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Plenty of choices with the 12z GEFS too. P010 looks like a sure winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm starting to agree full bore with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 And the 12z UK obliges. ....that's one bully southeast ridge....and that's one pathetic high to the east of Hudson bay....that's basically all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Where are you getting them from? e-Wall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f120.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Interesting spread on the GFS Ensembles, a lot of amplified, warm ones, some warm even as far west as Madison lol. The Euro will not be suppressed most likely. Call of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm starting to agree full bore with that idea. Y'all need to chill. Remember just 12 hours ago the models were locked onto a track that was farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 e-Wall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f120.html Thanks. Mine weren't updating but I was using the larger US view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 those GFS ensembles are a hot mess and really not useful for anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Y'all need to chill. Remember just 12 hours ago the models were locked onto a track that was farther south. I'm still licking my wounds from Sunday's 12z run. Now I'm rooting for this thing to go far enough nw so I can work in a game of golf and not waste those 60 degree temps....GGEM is almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Lol. One model run and everyone throws a fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Starting to become unsure of snow chances here for the first time since tracking this thing. If people get snow that haven't yet, half of me is legitimately happy for them. But the other half is a selfish gimme jerk, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.