Ajdos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I disagree with the GFS, there is much more cold air to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It doesn't really strengthen like I thought it would if it trended NW, still around 1000mb for most of its journey through the Midwest, the Euro has been a tad stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS takes it to Toledo. cyclone, BowMe, Bo jackpot...if you can call it that. Rain is warmer here. 50+ getting closer. New model run for Alek to embrace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS really doesn't want to let go of it's weaker solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS takes it to Toledo. cyclone, BowMe, Bo jackpot...if you can call it that. Rain is warmer here. 50+ getting closer. New model run for Alek to embrace? I'm on board for a Madison special so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS really doesn't want to let go of it's weaker solution. It's a more organized system than it had been showing at 500/850/700, I think the surface reflection will trend stronger with time. Our problem remains the lack of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm still thinking this shifts south. Models tend to play this game all the time North Vs South...At the end they go back to that original solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm on board with a Madison special.....Mr John Dee thinks so as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS verbatim has good defo axis/fgen and large scale lift over northern IL into early Sunday so it would be a mix to snow north of I80 with that solution despite marginal thermal profile. But the lack of cold air compared to the Euro is concerning for any shifts farther nw. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's a more organized system than it had been showing at 500/850/700, I think the surface reflection will trend stronger with time. Our problem remains the lack of cold air. Nice thing is there is cold air in Canada. Question is can the Friday front runner be catalysis to bring enough of it down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 12z GGEM over Dayton on 12z Sunday, 997mb low. Dump trucks full of rain for Indiana. OKC to the southern QC getting it at that point. Will probably get N IL/S WI thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 which is still overdone given the 850s shown, especially on the southern edge. We really need to cool it with the wxbell stuff. Anyways, getting caught up on this thread. -I still think the GFS is struggling with the ejection of the baja sw and subsequent plains cyclogenesis. That said, the baroclinic zone over the southern plains / arkaltex isn't the best so maybe it's onto something. -I think QPF on the Euro is being overdone and by a pretty large amount. The baja/gulf moisture connection is solid but SW/WSW vectors at 700/850 ahead of the low I just don't see that much moisture being pulled back into the cold sector. I think a much more realistic situation with this setup would be a much more thin stripe of 6-10" along the northern edge of what's currently being shown on the wxbell weenie maps. Of course this is all moot if it's able to close and wrap up better in the southern plains. EDIT: that said the support from the Euro ensembles for OP like QPF is noteworthy -Thermals remain the biggest concern IMBY. Euro has the 850 0C line pushing down south from Madison to Springfield before the event, and the 0C 2M line running from STL to DTW through entire event...the main slug of moisture only peaks north of that line for 6-12 hours, but overall SN north of the 0C line that hits Chicago runs from abt 120 to 144 hours on the Euro... Hope it verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm on board with a Madison special.....Mr John Dee thinks so as well. Yep, every winter practically Madison is getting above average snowfall, I think 11-12 was the only recent exception, perhaps 09-10 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 First meltdown? Yes. I am emotionally overwrought, and I need to step away from the models. My hands are shaking. I was traumatized by last years "back loaded" winter. I see isobars in my sleep, and mutter soundings to myself...... Even in public. (Handcuffs are cold. Padded cells? Not so padded) In all seriousness, when it comes to storms that appear marginal, like this one does to me, I tend to err on the downside, only because it works out that way quite a bit. So, to save my sanity, I am going to go blow up some tanks...I'll let the virtual battlefield frustrate me for an hour or so.... So, then I'll be good and frustrated, and when I am, I clean house better.... so the wife will be happy, and it all works out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 12z GFS and GGEM tracks are much better for eastern Iowa, but the deformation zone would have to be more robust or it would just be a moderate snow event. The GFS, in particular, is pretty feeble with forcing and/or moisture transport into the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It will help to have a stronger system like what the Euro has been advertising to help pull in some colder air, and help to tighten up the baroclinic zone. If the GFS ramps up intensity closer to what the Euro has been showing we should see an uptick in deformation zone snows on that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 This GFS run would only benefit the Milwaukee crew and...... Bo. Bo will get 18 inches and then a wrap around 2 feet from the LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS gives me about 6". Milwaukee is about 7-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 For you to get rain it would have to pretty much go over you, I don't see that in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS gives me about 6". Milwaukee is about 7-8". NE trajectories would be possible at least part of the time for lake enhancement I would think. Maybe that's why the higher totals are within 20-30 miles of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wagons north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wagons north? wagons north.png Indeed. Chances the Euro makes another shift NW? Pretty good I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Taking the 12z GEM precip typing algorithm verbatim paints an extremely scary scenario for two separate areas regarding significant icing. The Quincy to Peoria area get 12hrs straight moderate to heavy freezing rain, while the Toronto areas get much the same. Verbatim the QC would get 9-12hrs of sleet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 WPC again says no thanks to the GFS... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1155 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013VALID DEC 17/1200 UTC THRU DEC 21/0000 UTC...AN EVALUATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS ALONG WITH PRELIMINARYPREFERENCES/FORECAST CONFIDENCE......CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN CA ON THURSDAY......SYSTEM EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF OF CA/SEA OFCORTEZ BY FRIDAY EVENING...PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE 00Z ECMWFENSEMBLE/06Z GEFS MEANSFORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGESHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST WILLEVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY LATE THURSDAY ACROSS THESOUTHERN CA COAST. THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF TIME...THE 00ZECMWF/UKMET ARE THE DEEPEST SOLUTIONS ALOFT BOTH SHOWING A 540-DMHEIGHT CONTOUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CATALINA ISLANDS. OVERALLTRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN SOME SLOWING RELATIVE TO THEIRPREVIOUS RUNS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z GFS WHICH ACCELERATEDAHEAD OF ITS PRIOR CYCLE. MOST IMPORTANTLY...THE ENSEMBLE MEANSHAVE EXHIBITED A SLOWING TREND...MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWFENSEMBLE/GEFS MEANS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR MODELS TO ACCELERATETHESE SYSTEMS TOO QUICKLY TO THE EAST...HAD PLANNED ON GOING WITHTHE SLOWER PIECES OF GUIDANCE. THIS FAVORS THE 00Z ECMWF ALONGWITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE/06Z GEFS MEANS. DEFINITELY PLAN ONSTAYING AWAY FROM THE FASTER MODELS WHICH INCLUDES THE 12Z GFS AND00Z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Indeed. Chances the Euro makes another shift NW? Pretty good I'd say. It's a southern outlier now, per se. But it's been consistent, while the others are tripping over each other. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 WPC again says no thanks to the GFS... How could they exclude the FIM, DGEX, and experimental 384hr RAP from the disco?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So the GFS takes a step towards the Euro with strength/organization (at least above surface level), but the GGEM takes a step to the GFS with lack of cold air (now rain as opposed to the ice storm it was showing). Maybe the Euro will complete the circle have an ice storm like the GGEM had been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So the GFS takes a step towards the Euro with strength/organization (at least above surface level), but the GGEM takes a step to the GFS with lack of cold air (now rain as opposed to the ice storm it was showing). Maybe the Euro will complete the circle have an ice storm like the GGEM had been showing. I'm not sure how much if any of the cold air issues can be attributed to speed differences but it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Indeed. Chances the Euro makes another shift NW? Pretty good I'd say. Another? The last two runs were nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Another? The last two runs were nearly identical. It looked like it nudged north (especially the southern/eastern extent of snows) but i'm not seeing what you are. Either way, i'll be very surprised if 12z it isn't warmer for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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