Harry Perry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I believe the GFS is under-doing that high pressure. There's nothing really keeping it from coming south behind that front. With time I suppose. I'm grasping straws here. DO NOT want all that rain in sub-freezing air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 might as well...some early NAM looks. Plains baroclinic zone not looking all that explosive. Vortmax dug pretty deep into the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS is still showing marginal temps, and cold air not coming into NE IL until the precip is well east in to MI. Temps at the surface stay at freezing or above, through hour 138, when the precip is done. 850 temps are marginal as well, but the 0C line splits NE IL, and the Chicago area in half, through hour 120. They are calling for temps right around 30-32 degrees for Sunday, and the TV mets have snow in the forecast for Saturday night through Sunday, so right now, it's a bit inconsistent. Precip at the beginning from what I can see looks to be mostly rain. A sloppy mess is still very much in the offing for NE IL and NW IN. Skip the 18" of snow. It's going to be rain to sleet to snow with very little snow on the backside. GFS shows the precip off to the east as the cold air moves in, so we will have blowing flurries, and that's about it. GFS has been pretty consistent so far, and I don't expect that to change much. I wish the Euro precip map posted earlier would verify but right now, it doesn't look like that is possible for the NE IL, NW IN portion. One unrelated note: They have backed off the low 40's for Thursday. Mostly I am seeing high temps of 36-38 degrees being forecast for Thursday, and just above freezing for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS is still showing marginal temps, and cold air not coming into NE IL until the precip is well east in to MI. Temps at the surface stay at freezing or above, through hour 138, when the precip is done. 850 temps are marginal as well, but the 0C line splits NE IL, and the Chicago area in half, through hour 120. They are calling for temps right around 30-32 degrees for Sunday, and the TV mets have snow in the forecast for Saturday night through Sunday, so right now, it's a bit inconsistent. Precip at the beginning from what I can see looks to be mostly rain. A sloppy mess is still very much in the offing for NE IL and NW IN. Skip the 18" of snow. It's going to be rain to sleet to snow with very little snow on the backside. GFS shows the precip off to the east as the cold air moves in, so we will have blowing flurries, and that's about it. GFS has been pretty consistent so far, and I don't expect that to change much. I wish the Euro precip map posted earlier would verify but right now, it doesn't look like that is possible for the NE IL, NW IN portion. One unrelated note: They have backed off the low 40's for Thursday. Mostly I am seeing high temps of 36-38 degrees being forecast for Thursday, and just above freezing for Friday. You can't punt on 2nd and short with the ball at the 50 yard line. Chicago is still plenty in the game for snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 12Z NAM at 84 hours has the 0C line at 850 approximately 40 mi further south than the EURO and GFS. Makes me hopeful this will trend into Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS is still showing marginal temps, and cold air not coming into NE IL until the precip is well east in to MI. Temps at the surface stay at freezing or above, through hour 138, when the precip is done. 850 temps are marginal as well, but the 0C line splits NE IL, and the Chicago area in half, through hour 120. They are calling for temps right around 30-32 degrees for Sunday, and the TV mets have snow in the forecast for Saturday night through Sunday, so right now, it's a bit inconsistent. Precip at the beginning from what I can see looks to be mostly rain. A sloppy mess is still very much in the offing for NE IL and NW IN. Skip the 18" of snow. It's going to be rain to sleet to snow with very little snow on the backside. GFS shows the precip off to the east as the cold air moves in, so we will have blowing flurries, and that's about it. GFS has been pretty consistent so far, and I don't expect that to change much. I wish the Euro precip map posted earlier would verify but right now, it doesn't look like that is possible for the NE IL, NW IN portion. One unrelated note: They have backed off the low 40's for Thursday. Mostly I am seeing high temps of 36-38 degrees being forecast for Thursday, and just above freezing for Friday. First meltdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Also, looks like cooler temps and lower dewpoints on Thursday and Friday which will surely keep our snow cover down here. That would definitely increase FZRA chances if we can keep our snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 First meltdown? yeah, I think so. Don't think anyone had him though, so we'll have to go into overtime for that category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS is still showing marginal temps, and cold air not coming into NE IL until the precip is well east in to MI. Temps at the surface stay at freezing or above, through hour 138, when the precip is done. 850 temps are marginal as well, but the 0C line splits NE IL, and the Chicago area in half, through hour 120. They are calling for temps right around 30-32 degrees for Sunday, and the TV mets have snow in the forecast for Saturday night through Sunday, so right now, it's a bit inconsistent. Precip at the beginning from what I can see looks to be mostly rain. A sloppy mess is still very much in the offing for NE IL and NW IN. Skip the 18" of snow. It's going to be rain to sleet to snow with very little snow on the backside. GFS shows the precip off to the east as the cold air moves in, so we will have blowing flurries, and that's about it. GFS has been pretty consistent so far, and I don't expect that to change much. I wish the Euro precip map posted earlier would verify but right now, it doesn't look like that is possible for the NE IL, NW IN portion. One unrelated note: They have backed off the low 40's for Thursday. Mostly I am seeing high temps of 36-38 degrees being forecast for Thursday, and just above freezing for Friday. Ding ding ding we have our first meltdown. Tell him what he's won! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 First meltdown?I love this place. Great rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The real question is.... When do first calls start coming out? That should be wildly entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The real question is.... When do first calls start coming out? That should be wildly entertaining. I'll bust a final call thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I still think it's only a matter of time before the GFS gets a clue and have rain as my #1 concern. FWIW the HPC shows nearly Euro level QPF for DTW and ORD. I can only hope you're right on this thing amping that much, but we have yet to see a big cut besides the GEM a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 yeah, I think so. Don't think anyone had him though, so we'll have to go into overtime for that category. This is a storm that seems will not give me a chance to have the first meltdown. Will ruin a few peoples predictions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I can only hope you're right on this thing amping that much, but we have yet to see a big cut besides the GEM a couple days ago. It's probably not going to cut...model support for that solution is lacking and the more I look at the playing field, the less impressive that aspect looks. that said, the GFS is probably a little weak with the surface reflection (even if getting sheared) and likely at least a little dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The moisture feed is incredible ahead of this system. WPC 7 day QPF will likely verify. The flow is bringing in precipitation from the Pacific, the Gulf, and the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 00z Euro LAF SUN 12Z 22-DEC 0.7 5.4 1004 97 89 1.44 557 554 Yeah, I know that's 6 hour precip before/up to 12z...but that's a patented LAF look there (33 and rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 First meltdown? No, he's just being negative, or realistic, depending on your POV. There is no hint of bitterness, just his opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Tim's had classic meltdowns before. I seem to recall him snapping before the end of February snow event, when the NAM and GFS called it off, while the Euro had us getting like 6". Euro won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 First meltdown? Too much rationale, not melty enough. Thread under a melt watch for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Good thread to revisit for everyone making GHD comparisons. These setups are different in many important ways. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/26126-2011-ghd-blizzard-images-for-ams-talk/page-1 GHD That link just sidetracked me for about a half hour lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 CIPS analog dates/storms based off the 0z GFS at 120 hours. 1) January 1, 1985 2) December 2, 1991 3) December 15, 1987 4) January 13, 1979 5) November 26, 1986 6) November 30, 2006 Full list here: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= Some big dogs in there. Was it fate that cyclone was talking about Dec 14-15, 1987 the other day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That link just sidetracked me for about a half hour lol. I know right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 CIPS analog dates/storms based off the 0z GFS at 120 hours. 1) January 1, 1985 2) December 2, 1991 3) December 15, 1987 4) January 13, 1979 5) November 26, 1986 6) November 30, 2006 Full list here: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg= Some big dogs in there. Was it fate that cyclone was talking about Dec 14-15, 1987 the other day? Haha, that was a quick mover as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's probably not going to cut...model support for that solution is lacking and the more I look at the playing field, the less impressive that aspect looks. that said, the GFS is probably a little weak with the surface reflection (even if getting sheared) and likely at least a little dry. I had been leaning pretty hard on a more amped/wound up system .... unless we see some trends that way today, that may not verify....still a significant event in the making though for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 early 12z GFS guesses? hold serve, baby step NW? 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 early 12z GFS guesses? hold serve, baby step NW? 6z 12z Hold serve track wise, have no idea if it increases QPF on the cold side ala the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like it will come NW based on better phasing at 500/700. EDIT: pretty sure the GFS just blinked. Massive changes at 850/500/700 from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Gfs very close... Your scared...im sitting in a dentist chair minutes away from a Crown Lengthening procedure. LMAO....Good luck...I'm not sure what to say about the 12z, this is going to be very very close based on GFS, but it did trend a bit colder this run. Would be a shame to get such a storm in the form on rain, and that snow line to the n/w of Detroit, which we've seen many times before...OH and I do see a dry slot party by hour 123.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like it will come NW based on better phasing at 500/700. EDIT: pretty sure the GFS just blinked. Massive changes at 850/500/700 from 6z. much better speed this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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