Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Okay, that is good, although realistically I should stop being a cheapskate and get the data myself. What do you use again if you don't mind my inquisition. AccuWx Pro is the only place I know of that has text data come out in real-time... Though I know Josh has shared that one page before...But I'm sure it's delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 AccuWx Pro is the only place I know of that has text data come out in real-time... Though I know Josh has shared that one page before...But I'm sure it's delayed. Ahh okay, I'll have to look into it, see if it is within my price range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 00z euro ensembles basically the same as the previous ensemble runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GRR afd.. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)ISSUED AT 325 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM DEALS WITH THE POTENTIAL FORHEAVIER PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND WHAT TYPE.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE OH VALLEY SATNIGHT INTO SUN. THE GFS IS 6 TO 12 HRS QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEM.NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE SYSTEM DEEPENING AS IT TRACKSFROM SE MO TO CENTRAL NY. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THISSYSTEM ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SYSTEMTRACK. ALOFT THIS SYSTEM DOES DISPLAY VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER JETDYNAMICS WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF ONE THE STRONGEST JET STREAKSTHAT I HAVE SEEN OVER NORTH AMERICA SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKESREGION. FROM THE 00Z HIGH RES EURO 250 MB WINDS WITHIN THE CORE OFTHIS JET OVER QUEBEC ARE PREDICTED TO TOP OUT AT 225 KT 12Z SUN.OVERALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MAIN TYPE OF PRECIPITATION ASSNOW...HOWEVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI LOCATIONS LIKEJACKSON COULD SEE A MIX. 00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS ABOVE FREEZING WETBULB TEMPS FROM 925 MB TO ROUGHLY 775 MB. LOOKS MORE LIKE ZRDOWN THERE. HIGH RES EURO 00Z RUN IS COLDER...BUT DOES HINT AT MOREELEVATED THIN ABOVE FREEZING WET BULB TEMPS APPROXIMATELY 700MB TO 750 MB. GIVEN THE HIGH RES EURO STILL SUPPORTS NEARLY THEENTIRE AREA WITH SNOW...WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE THAT WAYFOR NOW.CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THISPOTENTIAL SYSTEM AS WELL. THE MAIN LIMITING INGREDIENT IS A MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT SHOWN ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS AND 12Z FIM. GENERALLYTHESE SETUPS CUT BACK QPF AN SNOW AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY. AS A BETTERCONSENSUS EXISTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTOSOUTHWEST LOWER MI...WILL BUMP UP POPS. This office has a obsession with that FIM model. Anyone know how much more reliable it is or if it is? I have not followed it much this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 one thing I have noticed is that ecm is the only model producing massive amounts of snow early on and all the way to the east coast whereas other models like GFS and GEM aren't producing big snow totals till it gets in the upper Great Lakes. I take it ecm is phasing the streams faster than other models. here is a graphic a meteorology friend of mine put together comparing the snow maps. what do you all think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Raw Euro data for DTW, for anyone that's interested... SUN 00Z 22-DEC 1.0 3.3 1014 94 80 0.01 560 549SUN 06Z 22-DEC 0.4 1.3 1009 98 100 0.35 559 551SUN 12Z 22-DEC 0.1 0.8 1006 96 100 1.13 556 551SUN 18Z 22-DEC 0.3 -1.7 1005 92 97 0.76 552 548MON 00Z 23-DEC -2.3 -6.8 1013 83 95 0.09 548 538MON 06Z 23-DEC -9.1 -10.6 1021 82 88 0.01 544 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 one thing I have noticed is that ecm is the only model producing massive amounts of snow early on and all the way to the east coast whereas other models like GFS and GEM aren't producing big snow totals till it gets in the upper Great Lakes. I take it ecm is phasing the streams faster than other models. here is a graphic a meteorology friend of mine put together comparing the snow maps. what do you all think? The only thing odd i have noticed is seeing the euro as the wettest/snowiest model in these parts. Usually it is the other way around? Usually it is the euro playing catch up or the GFS/NAM over blowing it where QPF/Snowfall amounts are concerned here. I think someone else mentioned this too? Even the euro ensemble mean is juiced up. Ofcourse we don't get many systems like this either that have a tremendous amount of moisture to work with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The concern I have with the Euro is it is the only model really producing big snow totals... I believe its performance so far this cold season has been a bit lacking too... I think the GFS model overall has actually done a somewhat better job. The Canadian model does lend some credence to the GFS too. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see one of these models cave in today...be it the GFS gets wetter or the Euro dries up a bit. One always has to take a step back when a model cranks out historic level snowfall. Today and Wednesday should be interesting to see where the trends head. I still wouldn't be shocked to see adjustments on the track, although I think that is becoming less and less likely as we have a pretty strong consensus on where the models are taking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 6z gfs doesn't blink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 IWX... .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)ISSUED AT 415 AM EST TUE DEC 17 2013FAIRLY STRAIGHT FWD TO START THE PD ON WED BUT TURNS EXTREMELY DICEYOVR THE WEEKEND AS SIG WINTER STORM DVLPS ACRS TX AND TURNS NE INTOTHE OH VALLEY.SFC RIDGE ACRS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE WRNATL WHILE ERN NOAM HGTS RELAX TO ZONAL DOWNSTREAM OF SIG LW TROUGHDVLPG OUT WEST. WRN WAVE FRACTURE ASSURED W/STG UPR JET DIGGING STGRSRN WAVE INTO NRN MEXICO WHILE NRN WAVE BREAKS RAPIDLY EWD ALLOWINGSTG ARCTIC WEDGE TO BLD SWD INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS. ROBUSTMODEL CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF STALLING FNTL ZONE INVOF OH RVR ISCOMPELLING AND SHLD SERVE AS FVRD PROXY SFC LOW TRACK THROUGH SUN.HWVR NEWD EJECTION OF WKNG SFC/UPR LOW TOO QUICK W/PREFERENCE TWDSTGR EC/GEM SOLUTIONS. THUS BROKE HIGHER W/POPS FM ALL BLEND SAT-SUN.PTYPE CONCERNS ARE MANY SAT INTO EARLY SUN BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE HAVELTL CONFIDENCE IN MED RANGE THERMAL FIELDS ESP GIVEN CONTD POOR SNOWCOVER ANALYSIS FIELDS. EWD SHEARING LEAD WAVE AND ASSOCD/SFCREFLECTION ON FRI...AND IN LIGHT OF FAIRLY DEEP ARCTIC RIDGE...WOULDSUGGEST COLD SIDE OF BAROCLINIC ZONE IS DISPLACED FURTHER SEWD ESPSHLD DEEPER EXTENT OF SNOW FIELD HOLD INTACT IN FACE OF ABV FREEZINGTEMPS FRI-SAT. REGARDLESS LOW LAT EJECTION ON INTENSE SRN STREAMWAVE AND OPEN GOMEX MSTR TAP YIELD HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY QPF.THUS IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO MAKE FUTILE ATTEMPTS TO PIN THINGS DOWNAND CONTD W/A GENERALIZED AND REASONABLY CONSISTENT WX MENTION THISWEEKEND. NONETHELESS THIS SYS WILL WRECK MANY A XMAS TRAVEL PLAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Dtx AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM...ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP ALONG IT AND THROUGH OHIO...SIMILAR TO THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WE HAD THIS PAST SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS A CUT OFF LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT GETS EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE TROUGH AS IT STARTS ITS TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS. THE VORT MAX WILL SHEAR OUT AS IT RIDES UP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 0.8 INCHES. IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND FGEN. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND THERMAL PROFILE MAKE FOR SOME CONCERN ABOUT PTYPE. MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD WITH EVERYTHING IMAGINABLE FALLING OUT OF THIS STORM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY KEEP A STEADY FEED OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IF IT CAN BUILD CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL THE TRACK TO OUR SOUTH WOULD PUT US IN THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH SOME MIXED PRECIP EARLY ON. WILL WATCH INTENTLY TO MAKE NECESSARY CHANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The GFS is the new "Dr. No". Usually it is the otherway around.Looks like his intern Oscar finally graduated med school. Dr. Weenie is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Over 5 Inches QPF.. Think the gfs has been sleeping around with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Toledo is about 1 degree away from seeing about 3" of ice that run... No thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I still think it's only a matter of time before the GFS gets a clue and have rain as my #1 concern. FWIW the HPC shows nearly Euro level QPF for DTW and ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So if we get 2 feet it would look like 1' LOL due to the snow compressing.. OUCH lol Not neccessarily. Biggest snowstorm I've ever experienced was the April Fools Blizzard near Worcester, MA in '97. Very heavy wet snow and nearly three feet of it. Very little compression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not neccessarily. Biggest snowstorm I've ever experienced was the April Fools Blizzard near Worcester, MA in '97. Very heavy wet snow and nearly three feet of it. Very little compression. What were the ratios for GHD in north illinois? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 A closer, crisp image of the 0z euro snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 A closer, crisp image of the 0z euro snowfall. euro0z121713.png Pre-Christmas 2004 storm would certainly take a backseat up here if that were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Pre-Christmas 2004 storm would certainly take a backseat up here if that were to verify. And that is all 10:1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not a whole lot of wiggle room with this thing, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 06z DGEX (which is essentially the long range NAM with the GFS' resolution) not only keeps majority of the moisture in the warm sector, but also congratulates turtlehurricane and weatherbo with whatever snow that does fall in the cold sector. Meanwhile, IN/MI gets a deluge of 33*F to 34*F rain. The low tracks from Indianapolis Toledo to Toronto. A grinch solution for majority of the sub-forum if I ever saw one. Even michsnowfreak would probably b**ch about it. Fortunately, it is the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 And that is all 10:1! which is still overdone given the 850s shown, especially on the southern edge. We really need to cool it with the wxbell stuff. Anyways, getting caught up on this thread. -I still think the GFS is struggling with the ejection of the baja sw and subsequent plains cyclogenesis. That said, the baroclinic zone over the southern plains / arkaltex isn't the best so maybe it's onto something. -I think QPF on the Euro is being overdone and by a pretty large amount. The baja/gulf moisture connection is solid but SW/WSW vectors at 700/850 ahead of the low I just don't see that much moisture being pulled back into the cold sector. I think a much more realistic situation with this setup would be a much more thin stripe of 6-10" along the northern edge of what's currently being shown on the wxbell weenie maps. Of course this is all moot if it's able to close and wrap up better in the southern plains. EDIT: that said the support from the Euro ensembles for OP like QPF is noteworthy -Thermals remain the biggest concern IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 06z DGEX (which is essentially the long range NAM with the GFS' resolution) not only keeps majority of the moisture in the warm sector, but also congratulates turtlehurricane and weatherbo with whatever snow that does fall in the cold sector. Meanwhile, IN/MI gets a deluge of 33*F to 34*F rain. The low tracks from Indianapolis Toledo to Toronto. A grinch solution for majority of the sub-forum if I ever saw one. Even michsnowfreak would probably b**ch about it. Fortunately, it is the DGEX. And the DGEX/NAM have been known to start NW with storms and settle back SE. You know we are all getting excited when we actually look at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Good thread to revisit for everyone making GHD comparisons. These setups are different in many important ways. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/26126-2011-ghd-blizzard-images-for-ams-talk/page-1 GHD 21-23 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 A closer, crisp image of the 0z euro snowfall. euro0z121713.png Wow--if that verifies you're looking at 7-8+ in. snowfall differentials within 30 miles of each other (e.g. from Springfield, IL to Taylorville; ILX to Decatur). But likely those areas within the big snowfall dropoff areas get crushed with ice under that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 00z Euro OKK FRI 00Z 20-DEC 5.6 2.7 1013 88 25 0.00 564 553 FRI 06Z 20-DEC 7.8 5.2 1011 95 32 0.05 563 554 FRI 12Z 20-DEC 9.4 6.1 1010 97 57 0.14 560 552 FRI 18Z 20-DEC 9.5 5.5 1010 99 88 0.08 560 552 SAT 00Z 21-DEC 4.7 6.6 1011 99 36 0.05 560 551 SAT 06Z 21-DEC 4.4 4.2 1012 98 24 0.03 561 551 SAT 12Z 21-DEC 2.5 7.5 1014 94 53 0.00 562 551 SAT 18Z 21-DEC 3.5 7.1 1014 86 91 0.01 563 552 SUN 00Z 22-DEC 2.6 7.6 1011 97 92 0.25 564 555 SUN 06Z 22-DEC 1.4 7.1 1006 97 100 0.77 562 557 SUN 12Z 22-DEC 0.8 4.0 1005 99 98 1.41 558 554 SUN 18Z 22-DEC -1.6 0.3 1007 92 39 0.57 554 549 MON 00Z 23-DEC -3.3 -7.3 1017 86 77 0.04 551 538 MON 06Z 23-DEC -8.0 -11.5 1024 79 67 0.01 547 528 LAF FRI 06Z 20-DEC 7.8 5.2 1011 96 31 0.05 563 554 FRI 12Z 20-DEC 8.8 5.8 1010 99 57 0.12 560 552 FRI 18Z 20-DEC 8.0 5.9 1010 99 77 0.05 560 552 SAT 00Z 21-DEC 3.4 5.8 1012 98 43 0.06 560 550 SAT 06Z 21-DEC 2.5 3.7 1013 98 27 0.02 561 550 SAT 12Z 21-DEC 1.4 6.7 1014 96 60 0.00 561 550 SAT 18Z 21-DEC 2.3 6.7 1014 87 92 0.01 562 551 SUN 00Z 22-DEC 1.6 7.0 1011 98 99 0.21 563 555 SUN 06Z 22-DEC 1.2 4.7 1006 97 98 0.74 561 556 SUN 12Z 22-DEC 0.7 5.4 1004 97 89 1.44 557 554 SUN 18Z 22-DEC -1.5 -2.6 1008 91 52 0.35 553 546 MON 00Z 23-DEC -2.4 -8.7 1018 84 91 0.03 550 535 MON 06Z 23-DEC -9.8 -11.7 1025 80 65 0.01 546 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The clipper behind the this storm has more cold sector precip than the GFS does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 CAPE reaching 120+ in SW lower Michigan @H135 of last night's 00Z EURO... The details are completely filed under FWIW....but it does keep hinting at some elevated CAPE for that time period and the same general area around southern lake michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 CAPE reaching 120+ in SW lower Michigan @H135 of last night's 00Z EURO... The details are completely filed under FWIW....but it does keep hinting at some elevated CAPE for that time period and the same general area around southern lake michigan Thundersnow potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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