snowstormcanuck Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Already the King but if the EURO nails this one we'll have to retire its number and induct it into the weather model hall of fame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Ends up being a 20-24hr event here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Already the King but if the EURO nails this one we'll have to retire its number and induct it into the weather model hall of fame. Or Shame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm just hoping we don't get a wet, heavy snow...EW per WxBell maps that is what it would be based on 2m Temps out that way in the eastern most counties along the river/border.. Just above freezing during height of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 0z ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So if we get 2 feet it would look like 1' LOL due to the snow compressing.. OUCH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Basically, the EURO didn't shift the heavy band of snow, it just shaved a fair amount off the southern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Going off memory but this seems like about 4 consecutive runs of the Euro throwing out these crazy totals somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Actually the high is a good ways south in the plains at 12z Sunday (1039mb over SD) compared to the 12z run (1039mb over ND/southern Canada) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just looking at raw numbers for ARR. Average sfc temp during snowfall this run is around 25 degrees Average 850mb temp is -5 deg C. Total QPF is 1.15", all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just looking at raw numbers for ARR. Average sfc temp during snowfall this run is around 25 degrees Average 850mb temp is -5 deg C. Total QPF is 1.15", all snow I hate to be a weenie but can you tell me anything about LAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Going off memory but this seems like about 4 consecutive runs of the Euro throwing out these crazy totals somewhere. You should see the QPF totals between this run vs the 12z.. Near Identical.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I hate to be a weenie but can you tell me anything about LAF? are we allowed to post raw data still from the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 are we allowed to post raw data still from the Euro? Yeah i think they only get bent if it is a map that is being shown from a private vendor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 are we allowed to post raw data still from the Euro? Yeah, don't think it's a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 LAF SAT 18Z 21-DEC 2.3 6.7 1014 87 92 0.01 562 551 SUN 00Z 22-DEC 1.6 7.0 1011 98 99 0.21 563 555 SUN 06Z 22-DEC 1.2 4.7 1006 97 98 0.74 561 556 SUN 12Z 22-DEC 0.7 5.4 1004 97 89 1.44 557 554 SUN 18Z 22-DEC -1.5 -2.6 1008 91 52 0.35 553 546 MON 00Z 23-DEC -2.4 -8.7 1018 84 91 0.03 550 535 MON 06Z 23-DEC -9.8 -11.7 1025 80 65 0.01 546 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Going off memory but this seems like about 4 consecutive runs of the Euro throwing out these crazy totals somewhere. Yep, it was the 12z 12/15 run that had the crazy totals for most of IN/OH and and each run since but obviously more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 LAF SAT 18Z 21-DEC 2.3 6.7 1014 87 92 0.01 562 551 SUN 00Z 22-DEC 1.6 7.0 1011 98 99 0.21 563 555 SUN 06Z 22-DEC 1.2 4.7 1006 97 98 0.74 561 556 SUN 12Z 22-DEC 0.7 5.4 1004 97 89 1.44 557 554 SUN 18Z 22-DEC -1.5 -2.6 1008 91 52 0.35 553 546 MON 00Z 23-DEC -2.4 -8.7 1018 84 91 0.03 550 535 MON 06Z 23-DEC -9.8 -11.7 1025 80 65 0.01 546 527 Thanks a lot. Somebody just north of here must get destroyed with ice given those types of 850 mb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Thanks a lot. Somebody just north of here must get destroyed with ice given those types of 850 mb temps. Joy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 There is that track again.. Yeah don't see anything with a huge left turn thus far, still time that could change but the window is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 0z ECMWF: Wow 2.5" liquid, hell whatever we get whether it is snow, ice or rain, it might be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Btw, I know we talked about not doing the Euro list this winter, but I think for this storm we might need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Might be too early to talk about this but it's kinda unfathomable that some of the same areas that got pounded on GHD could get a ton of snow again. Twice in less than 3 years would be taking a baseball bat to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Might be too early to talk about this but it's kinda unfathomable that some of the same areas that got pounded on GHD could get a ton of snow again. Twice in less than 3 years would be taking a baseball bat to climo. Unfathomable? Not really, unlikely for sure. However, you had Chicago getting January 1999 and December 11, 2000 in less than two years, both yielding over 12" of snow. That's one example right off the bat, probably a few more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Unfathomable? Not really, unlikely for sure. However, you had Chicago getting January 1999 and December 11, 2000 in less than two years, both yielding over 12" of snow. That's one example right off the bat, probably a few more. There's a big difference between those storms and what I'm talking about. If the higher end potential works out with the upcoming one, it's possible that some of the same areas will have gotten 18+ from both storms. THAT is hard to do in less than 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 There's a big difference between those storms and what I'm talking about. If the higher end potential works out with the upcoming one, it's possible that some of the same areas will have gotten 18+ from both storms. THAT is hard to do in less than 3 years. It's possible, but I think many areas that do end up with high precip from being on the ice/snow line will have low ratios, such that even with the higher end potential, 12-18" will likely be the ceiling or near it. If what you said does work out, you're right it is very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Btw, I know we talked about not doing the Euro list this winter, but I think for this storm we might need to. In a few days if an ECMWF-like solution is more likely I'll start it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 In a few days if an ECMWF-like solution is more likely I'll start it up. Okay, that is good, although realistically I should stop being a cheapskate and get the data myself. What do you use again if you don't mind my inquisition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 There's a big difference between those storms and what I'm talking about. If the higher end potential works out with the upcoming one, it's possible that some of the same areas will have gotten 18+ from both storms. THAT is hard to do in less than 3 years. Only ones to my knowledge here atleast is with Jan 78 followed up by Jan 79.. Both 18+ for many around here atleast.. Jan 78 had 25.5" vs Jan 79 with 18" at KBTL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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