Geos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Lol, @ Alek's first comment in the thread. A snapshot of 24 hour snowfall, 12z EURO. 12/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Gonna be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 From Larry Cosgrove and his weekly newsletter... "The read I get on this system is threefold: one, that it is underdone due to model error (weak bias on GFS and ECMWF in the 144 - 180 hour time frame); secondly that the cold advance will be slightly more south and east than what current equation runs are showing (owing to favorable "gap" between the Gulf of Alaska ridge complex and the Sargasso Sea High); and the this feature will set up a major ice and snow event from western and northern Texas and Oklahoma into the Corn Belt and southern Ontario. Cities such as Dallas TX; St. Louis MO; Chicago IL; Indianapolis IN; and Detroit MI may be in line to see critical power and travel issues from ice and snow, followed by bitter cold." ...and of course JB thinks the euro is not aggressive enough with the advancing arctic front and the storm will go up EAST of the apps. Must have gotten a fresh batch of weenie feed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Gonna be a long week. lol if there is a bonus to this system...the flow isn't as crazy progressive. At the very least, there will be more time between sampling and actual system impacts in our subforum this go around. I imagine things will get somewhat locked in a little sooner than the last one. That being said....the energy is in the middle of the pacific right now. Not that sampling is everything....but it usually helps to clean up some of the rif raf in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Gonna be a long week. Time for your long overdue LAF big ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Thinking this system will be an I-70 - south tracker most likely. All this snow cover is really refrigerating the atmosphere and it helps that we're at the shortest days of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 lol if there is a bonus to this system...the flow isn't as crazy progressive. At the very least, there will be more time between sampling and actual system impacts in our subforum this go around. I imagine things will get somewhat locked in a little sooner than the last one. That being said....the energy is in the middle of the pacific right now. Not that sampling is everything....but it usually helps to clean up some of the rif raf in the models. From a modeling perspective, the thing that scares me is if the key features end up in Mexico for a while. That can wreak havoc...for a recent example, I'm a believer that it's the reason why the models struggled so much in the run up to the 2/5/2011 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Time for your long overdue LAF big ice storm? All I know is that I'm not sticking around for another sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 ...and of course JB thinks the euro is not aggressive enough with the advancing arctic front and the storm will go up EAST of the apps. Must have gotten a fresh batch of weenie feed in. Not with that strong high off the East Coast, good luck getting that Arctic front beyond the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 latest ggem depiction of lalaland pre-xmas 'event' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 All I know is that I'm not sticking around for another sleet storm. X2 latest ggem depiction of lalaland pre-xmas 'event' Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 X2 Good luck with that. from 144 to 192 that front is slowly moving southeast with a lot of precip and waves along it....someone is gonna get iced pretty bad....possibly a lot of the subforum will be sledding or skating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 From a modeling perspective, the thing that scares me is if the key features end up in Mexico for a while. That can wreak havoc...for a recent example, I'm a believer that it's the reason why the models struggled so much in the run up to the 2/5/2011 storm. Very true...good point...and also the mountainous terrain in western Canada can be quite data void as well...although I don't know that any energy sweeps in from that region or not yet....haven't really looked at the models too much yet on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 00z UKMET at 144 hours Out of the 00z GFS/GGEM/UKMET, the GFS seems to be dragging its feet the most with that energy in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 00z UKMET at 144 hours GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif Out of the 00z GFS/GGEM/UKMET, the GFS seems to be dragging its feet the most with that energy in the southwest. With it usually being the most progressive that might be a red flag for further runs of the other models trending slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Through 120 hours the 0Z Euro looks very similar to the latest GFS. It too has trended a fair bit south with the inital low trailing along the Canadian/USA border. Could pan out to be a major ice storm for some with such a strong gradient. Still 96+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 00z Euro has a 998 mb low in AR at 168 hrs. Edit: warm 850 mb temps for many of us. 0C line is a bit nw of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Euro is pretty consistent...however a lot weaker, less snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 00z Euro has a 998 mb low in AR at 168 hrs. Edit: warm 850 mb temps for many of us. 0C line is a bit nw of Chicago. That has a severe weather look to it for AR and W TN/MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 That has a severe weather look to it for AR and W TN/MS. Moisture return in general looks like it could be very good. Check this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Yeah those extremely favorable moisture trajectories have gotten my attention for this system for awhile now, the position of the high off the East coast is near ideal (obviously that 50-70+ kt LLJ feeding into the Mid South/rather strong surface reflection enhances the severe prospects from the 00z Euro's perspective) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Moisture return in general looks like it could be very good. Check this out. 5.gif 6.gif 7.gif Yeah the moisture transport with this one is going to be significant. someone on the back side of this system is going to get a ton of something, either snow and/or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 ouch on the 12z gfs. Holds back that energy forever and then sends it out as a xmas eve rainstorm for 80% of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 ouch on the 12z gfs. Holds back that energy forever and then sends it out as a xmas eve rainstorm for 80% of the forum.The backside looked interesting. Plus we're now looking at 240 hour maps.This run looked better to keep temps down in SEMI and points north. At this time frame, I prefer to limit the damage IMBY and up north. I know that is selfish. I pray for the whole subforum's snow coner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z Canadian and the Euro's crazy UnKle drumming up something past 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z Canadian and the Euro's crazy UnKle drumming up something past 144 hours. GGEM showed mostly snow for Chicago and surrounding areas but a major ice storm from SE Michigan/Northern Indiana and on into Southern/Eastern Ontario. Other regions including Ohio saw mostly rain. As for the initial low, the GGEM still tracks it further north amongst all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 12z Canadian and the Euro's crazy UnKle drumming up something past 144 hours. To say that the GGEM has a lot of moisture would be an understatement. Too early to buy into any of these solutions verbatim but it shows the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 To say that the GGEM has a lot of moisture would be an understatement. Too early to buy into any of these solutions verbatim but it shows the potential. santa gonna need his floaties.... The ggem has what looks like a share the wealth scenario with 3 lows coming up the front, starting around 120 and ending around 192. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Just for posterity Snow: ZR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Just for posterity Snow: ZR: damn, that's one wishful southeast trend I might have to root against.. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.