wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just saw 132 hours...it has the surface low near the OH/PA border. Lots of precip but probably not a ton of snow. The GEM flip flops worse than the attitude of some of the posters on this board this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The GEM flip flops worse than the attitude of some of the posters on this board this month. Other than that 00z run last night, I think it's actually been fairly consistent in general minus typical run to run north/south shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just saw 132 hours...it has the surface low near the OH/PA border. Lots of precip but probably not a ton of snow. Reasons why it is so hard for me to take anything serious beyond 120hrs on the models. Yes a storm does look to happen but shifts that can be a make or break deal are still very possible. Ofcourse now we are reaching that point of 120hrs.. The next day or two should be telling unless it gets pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just saw 132 hours...it has the surface low near the OH/PA border. Lots of precip but probably not a ton of snow. Lots of rain for us. Though looks like NW MO may be cashing in at 132. Kinda fizzles as it heads into NE IL at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GEM crushes the I70 to i80 corridors with ice and snow. Assuming 2m is cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Lots of rain for us. Though looks like NW MO may be cashing in at 132. 0z GEM 132.jpg Kinda fizzles as it heads into NE IL at 144 hours. I don't know about that...kinda looks like we'd get cranked with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GGEM Far northern burbs of Detroit gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 How are the GEM 2M temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I don't know about that...kinda looks like we'd get cranked with ice. Looks "warm enough" to me. But you could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks "warm enough" to me. But you could be right. Perhaps. I'm confident it's awfully close at the very least. I guess we'll see when the better maps come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GGEM Far northern burbs of Detroit gets crushed. There is that track again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 How are the GEM 2M temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 OMG THAT = HISTORIC ICE STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 OMG THAT = HISTORIC ICE STORM. I can't even make anything out on those maps lol. At least if the 32F was labeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 WPC pitches the 00Z GFS into the trash.... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1120 PM EST MON DEC 16 2013VALID DEC 17/0000 UTC THRU DEC 20/1200 UTCTROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST TOWARDS THE PLAINS~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGEDUE TO VERY STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC, ENERGYDROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST WITH MUCH OF IT MANIFESTED INTO ACLOSED CYCLONE MOVING BY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY. THE00Z GFS IS THE QUICKEST TO PROGRESS THIS ENERGY EASTWARD INTO THESOUTHWEST, WHICH DESPITE THE NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGHMOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, APPEARS ERRANT AS THIS CLOSED LOWSHOULD REMAIN A SEPARATE FEATURE FOR 2-3 DAYS. THERE IS NOOBVIOUS UPSTREAM KICKER TO BOOT, SO PREFER THE SLOWER NON-GFSGUIDANCE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFIEDNATURE OF THE FLOW IN THIS REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 And there's the answer. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I can't even make anything out on those maps lol. At least if the 32F was labeled... looks like lots of mid 20s to low 30s and rain NW of the Ohio River or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 WPC pitches the 00Z GFS into the trash.... So they like the EURO I'm assuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So far (at 5 days out) all signs point to either a miss, or a sloppy mix for NE IL. TV mets putting snow in the forecast for Sat night/Sun, and talking about it mostly staying south. Other than that, it still bears watching. There are a few solutions on the table, it's just a matter of waiting to see which one comes to fruition. If I made a call, it would be pessimistic at this time, so I shall refrain. Just chalk it up to my mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Ha a temp difference of 40 degree in ohio in a distance of jus 30 miles... Ya ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Gut feeling right now says the DTX area gets a ZR storm or some sort of frozen mix with back end snow. All rain scenario has very little support atm and really I'd be stoked for any kind of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I can't even make anything out on those maps lol. At least if the 32F was labeled... There's a hint of light pink over us at 126 hours, which I think is AOB 32º...but after that I think it's safely above freezing. I don't know. My eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So they like the EURO I'm assuming. well, thus far they are just saying NON GFS....so a blend of the rest.....but this is not their final evaluation yet for the evening....euro typically does better with the speed of these SW closed lows and when they start to roll out....we'll see what they say once all is said and done with the rest of the models tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's not much but the 0z GFS did go to the Euro with a tad stronger high (1034mb) over nrn plains/MN and it reflects in the 850mb temps and how far south better cold air gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 So they like the EURO I'm assuming. They like the slower, amplified models for sure based on their wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's not much but the 0z GFS did go to the Euro with a tad stronger high (1034mb) over nrn plains/MN and it reflects in the 850mb temps and how far south better cold air gets. yeah a step in the "right" direction....but the speed screwed the pooch a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Sunday is going to be a really big travel day... this storm is going to cause a lot of headaches in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's not much but the 0z GFS did go to the Euro with a tad stronger high (1034mb) over nrn plains/MN and it reflects in the 850mb temps and how far south better cold air gets. It did. Problem is that with its faster solution the high pressure is 12 hours late or so getting to the party to feed the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 There is that track again.. Yep...At least that's becoming a bit more consistent as time goes by...for now that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 If I had to guess, the low will pass through Indianapolis then near Detroit. Slow down and amp up the GFS a bit and there she is. You think slowing down would mean it would trend NW? A poster on another forum (one that shall not be named ) commented that the slower solutions would likely be suppressed in future runs due to the high taking precedence. It makes sense unless the high doesn't budge in as quickly in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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