Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That is exactly what it looks like, and these 2 systems do have some similarities to them. Both of their parent vorts dove down into Mexico before lifting out. Both lows tracked into IN before lifting ENE. Both had initial waves a couple days previous. Both have big time severe potentials (that one was the Super Tuesday Outbreak). They look different to me. The 2008 storm didn't really cut off in the southwest at all and it also strengthened and closed off aloft over MO/IL and that's really where it really began to intensify where with this setup this weekend it intensifies (at least in model land) and it goes negative tilt and ejects out but then flys northeast as the vort shears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Um.... NO. You have enough snow on the ground and on the way already. We get the system. I bet Detroit gets 18 inches and I get like 8 inches. Typical outcome here.... I would like to see a rain snow line right on the Detroit river, sorry Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 They look different to me. The 2008 storm didn't really cut off in the southwest at all and it also strengthened and closed off aloft over MO/IL and that's really where it really began to intensify where with this setup this weekend it intensifies (at least in model land) and it goes negative tilt and ejects out but then flys northeast as the vort shears out. Track differences for sure, the former was around 100 miles north of where the Euro projects this track and maybe a bit more. More of a NW trend and the similarities may increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Track differences for sure, the former was around 100 miles north of where the Euro projects this track and maybe a bit more. More of a NW trend and the similarities may increase. I'm not talking track though. I'm talking just the synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Um.... NO. You have enough snow on the ground and on the way already. We get the system. I bet Detroit gets 18 inches and I get like 8 inches. Typical outcome here.... I would like to see a rain snow line right on the Detroit river, sorry Josh. As the saying goes: sometimes to get the best snows you have to smell the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 They look different to me. The 2008 storm didn't really cut off in the southwest at all and it also strengthened and closed off aloft over MO/IL and that's really where it really began to intensify where with this setup this weekend it intensifies (at least in model land) and it goes negative tilt and ejects out but then flys northeast as the vort shears out. The synoptic evolution is the one difference at this junction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The synoptic evolution is the one difference at this junction. Well that's kind of a big difference lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well that's kind of a big difference lol. Yes, the initial differences aren't that huge though, it is what happens after 90 hours where the synoptic evolution is significantly different. I am not saying these are going to evolve the same in any way, all I was pointing out was some notable similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 better hope that digging energy in the SW or Baja doesn't pump up to much of a ridge ahead of it...otherwise hello central/northern Iowa up into Western Wisconsin. Hopefully we don't get to strong of a storm to soon for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 better hope that digging energy in the SW or Baja doesn't pump up to much of a ridge ahead of it...otherwise hello central/northern Iowa up into Western Wisconsin. Hopefully we don't get to strong of a storm to soon for most of us. Analogs seem to support this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 better hope that digging energy in the SW or Baja doesn't pump up to much of a ridge ahead of it...otherwise hello central/northern Iowa up into Western Wisconsin. Hopefully we don't get to strong of a storm to soon for most of us. One thing that does not favor those in the SE part of the forum is the melting snowpack that will be occurring for those even just south of the Lakes. The snowcover gradient will really drop off from Chicago and Detroit southward. Could definitely see that as a likely location for the baroclinic zone or temp gradient to set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Saturday night-Sunday has a SVR look to it based on quick glance of Euro and GFS in OH Valley. Wouldn't be surprised to see some temps near 70 up to the OH river ahead of that CF. Instability is a question mark (I noticed that models are showing a little bit there) but with those powerhouse wind fields it won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Instability is a question mark (I noticed that models are showing a little bit there) but with those powerhouse wind fields it won't take much. I think at this time the models are underdoing instability in the warm sector which given the time of year isn't shocking. Given the moisture transport that is forecast it won't take much above 65 to generate good instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Here in sw OH I think a good portion of the snowpack will be melted over Thursday and Friday as this last system really compressed our pack with rain. So could allow for greater heating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Instability is a question mark (I noticed that models are showing a little bit there) but with those powerhouse wind fields it won't take much. I did notice thicknesses are very high 564+ which may indicate a lack of decent lapse rates. The entire column may be warm with that SE ridge. But it's too early to call any specifics of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 yeah we had one of these non linear type set ups a few Winters back and the system ended up way, way West of what was modeled a few days out and it was basically a MN special. This thing if it is a substantial system will end up further W than any model is outputting right now. If I'm in Des Moines or La Crosse I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable than say here in the Quad Cities. Climatology would favor something from Central to Northeast Iowa up into Wisconsin I think. Meanwhile over Eastern Iowa/Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin would be in a mixy type zone with an eventual changeover to snow before ending. Now if we can get the consistency to develop and still show somewhere around here, with not a substantially intense system then I'd be more confident for this area or points just South and East of us. And yes lots of snowcover around here and points East and South will be gone by Thursday so that won't help to reinforce any baroclinic zone, however, we have the lead wave for Thursday-Thursday Night which might push that "magic track zone" further to the S and E than would otherwise be typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 One thing that does not favor those in the SE part of the forum is the melting snowpack that will be occurring for those even just south of the Lakes. The snowcover gradient will really drop off from Chicago and Detroit southward. Could definitely see that as a likely location for the baroclinic zone or temp gradient to set up. I know we hear that a lot, but I doubt it has that great of a significance. This past storm, we had a snow pack down to the river and the weak wave of low pressure still made it well into western OH. There is going to be much greater influences that effect where that zone sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 yeah we had one of these non linear type set ups a few Winters back and the system ended up way, way West of what was modeled a few days out and it was basically a MN special. This thing if it is a substantial system will end up further W than any model is outputting right now. If I'm in Des Moines or La Crosse I'd be feeling a bit more comfortable than say here in the Quad Cities. Climatology would favor something from Central to Northeast Iowa up into Wisconsin I think. Meanwhile over Eastern Iowa/Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin would be in a mixy type zone with an eventual changeover to snow before ending. Now if we can get the consistency to develop and still show somewhere around here, with not a substantially intense system then I'd be more confident for this area or points just South and East of us. And yes lots of snowcover around here and points East and South will be gone by Thursday so that won't help to reinforce any baroclinic zone, however, we have the lead wave for Thursday-Thursday Night which might push that "magic track zone" further to the S and E than would otherwise be typical. I would think atleast a couple of the euro ensembles would pick up on such a track at this point if that were to be a threat ( trend that far nw ) but none are. Not saying they are the holy grail but yeah usually a few ( remember there is 51 members ) will atleast pick up on that sort of thing ( those past systems being mentioned had that ) especially if it is to be a strong and or deep low pressure. Still just outside the day 5 range so yeah i know it can change. Regardless of that the high the euro showed will have a say as to how far west the system can get as well. Without that high there is nothing to keep it from going further nw but on the flip side a stronger/further south high could shift everything further south as well regardless of where/when it ejects out of the sw/N.MX.. History also says that systems coming in well south of Amarillo do not track that far nw either..Ofcourse the models could be off with that too and thus where it ejects into Texas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Snowpack thing has to be one of the most over-rated things. One for the idea that it's going to keep a storm farther south, and two for how quickly it can be demolished. Trust me, watching the hard earned Dec 2010 double-digit pack here get eaten alive in the waning days of that month was horridly impressive. Now, if we're talking about a weaker storm that is running moisture up over a snow field, sure, that's when it has an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I know we hear that a lot, but I doubt it has that great of a significance. This past storm, we had a snow pack down to the river and the weak wave of low pressure still made it well into western OH. There is going to be much greater influences that effect where that zone sets up. See earlier in the month when we had no snow cover and everything stayed along/south of i-70.. All about if or where that high to the north is located and to some degree where it ejects into Texas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Regardless this thing is still beyond the day 5 range so yeah i am not gonna write anything off yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The NAM is taking the vort max down to Central BAJA almost. This means cyclogenesis will take place over South Central Texas. This will slow stuff down. Let the cold front make it into the Tennessee valley. This might put out a more Dallas to SW Ohio track = pure gold for most of us. Let us Pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 See earlier in the month when we had no snow cover and everything stayed along/south of i-70.. All about if or where that high to the north is located and to some degree where it ejects into Texas.. Bingo. I agree about those two factors. To a extent, the models are just kind of guessing at details at this range...as are we. But hey, Hoosier threw you bone and already referenced Jan 1967. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 See earlier in the month when we had no snow cover and everything stayed along/south of i-70.. All about if or where that high to the north is located and to some degree where it ejects into Texas.. And how strong it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Bingo. I agree about those two factors. To a extent, the models are just kind of guessing at details at this range...as are we. But hey, Hoosier threw you bone and already referenced Jan 1967. meh.. As said elsewhere i wanna see it to believe it.. Not saying it is impossible but yeah no need in setting oneself up for that kind of disappointment. Yes the euro ensembles are very encouraging for sure but still not time to get excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 meh.. As said elsewhere i wanna see it to believe it.. Not saying it is impossible but yeah no need in setting oneself up for that kind of disappointment. Yes the euro ensembles are very encouraging for sure but still not time to get excited yet. Well, I'm not being fair in that he was talking more about the total precip similarity of Jan 1967 compared to today's 12z Euro...but hey, it sounds good anyway. But you never know. Still lots and lots of time, and runs, to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Well, I'm not being fair in that he was talking more about the total precip similarity of Jan 1967 compared to today's 12z Euro...but hey, it sounds good anyway. But you never know. Still lots and lots of time, and runs, to go. Yeah this would be slightly south of that but still 18+ is still nothing to complain about. Gonna be very hard to get the total Jan 67 had here anyways. Reasons why it has remained the top dog for here as long as it has. But yeah who knows.. Nothing is impossible where the weather is concerned with these kinds of records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The NAM is taking the vort max down to Central BAJA almost. This means cyclogenesis will take place over South Central Texas. This will slow stuff down. Let the cold front make it into the Tennessee valley. This might put out a more Dallas to SW Ohio track = pure gold for most of us. Let us Pray. What I wouldn't give to see this thing track thru the northern TN Valley.....But c'mon man, you're extrapolating the 84 hour nam ...get ahold of yourself! I think for us lowly folks on the southeast flanks, we need several things to come together: - delayed ejection of sw - stronger high building in - and a weaker storm...or sheared out storm in pieces coming out (a sub 1000mb low any further north then TX and it's game over for us) there's going to be a ton of moisture being pulled up regardless of the strength of the low, all a strong slp does is bring the warm with the wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 What I wouldn't give to see this thing track thru the northern TN Valley.....But c'mon man, you're extrapolating the 84 hour ...get ahold of yourself! I think for us lowly folks on the southeast flanks, we need several things to come together: - delayed ejection of sw - stronger high building in - and a weaker storm...or sheared out storm in pieces coming out (a sub 1000mb low any further north then TX and it's game over for us) there's going to be a ton of moisture being pulled up regardless of the strength of the low, all a strong slp does is bring the warm with the wet. PD II comes to mind when i think of such heavy duty snows/ice with a weaker low passing by with that sort of track. Granted i think it did end up clipping far eastern KY and then transferred to the coast? Ofcourse with that some thought it would go even further south and as well miss those north of a Philly/Columbus line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 While we're killing time, I made this map a while back. It shows the max snowstorm of record for various locations. I think 1 or 2 of these may have been broken since I made the map but it gives an idea. There are a lot of gaps but the heaviest swath of snow on the 12z Euro would basically be record breaking for the areas affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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