A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 was wondering when we'd start talking NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 FWIW the 18z NAM has a stronger and further south high in the nrn plains at 84hr compared to the GFS and the NAM doesn't have the wave as far off the coast either. Wish I could see some anomaly maps for this. Notice the 850 mb 0C line making a run for central Baja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 bummed Roger didn't talk about how Saturns moons will impact plains cyclogenisis I'm not ready to start discussing the Jan 28 blizzard yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Wish I could see some anomaly maps for this. Notice the 850 mb 0C line making a run for central Baja nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Merry Christmas: http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/NAM/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 18z gfs going to come in warmer and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 18z gfs going to come in warmer and stronger Nothing like a December flood. It will make up for not having one in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 18z gfs going to come in warmer and stronger Meh...more strung out and weaker through 132. Equally warm. EDIT: Actually a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 500 MB on the 18z GFS looks very similar to the 12z EURO actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 DTW at least gets some backside snow on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS nothing too special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Seems like the GFS always has to play catchup to the Euro in this time range with these powerful storms. I'd expect the GFS to look better by 00z/06z/12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I would gladly take a nw trend to put those flooding rains over NW Indiana and SW Michigan. Terrible rain amounts. GFS has been indicating specks of 5" rain amounts. I can't imagine what the NAM might look like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 12Z ECMWF has much of this precip falling when thicknesses are above 5400m. The line goes above Detroit and is very near Chicago in these forecast time frames. That would mean sleet, freezing rain, or rain for Detroit, close call for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 12Z ECMWF has much of this precip falling when thicknesses are above 5400m. The line goes above Detroit and is very near Chicago in these forecast time frames. That would mean sleet, freezing rain, or rain for Detroit, close call for Chicago. 2013_12_16_12z_ECMWF_144hr.png 2013_12_16_12z_ECMWF_150hr.png Party pooper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 FYP The chart on Post #302 showed DTW >20". 1974 was 19.3" at DTW. In the end I don't think it is going to really matter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Just checking in to read this thread and say wow to the possibility of either two feet of snow or significant ice or rain in Michiana as models will vacillate. Yes, it will be interesting to see if the GFS follows suit with the king in time, but right now all I can realistically say is wow and expect that someone somewhere may get an epic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 As we get closer it's gonna be interesting to study some of the soundings and try to figure out just how much of an ice threat there will be. Could end up with just a wide corridor of primarily pingers, with little glazing depending on how the temp profiles work out. With such deep moisture feeding into this thing a devastating ice storm is definitely possible if the right temp profiles can setup and maintain in a given area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS nothing too special. wow maybe not much, but for once I'm in a part of one bulleye lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 wow maybe not much, but for once I'm in a part of one bulleye lol the bulls eye a week out, not usually the best place to be I'd like a good system snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 GFS nothing too special. Ha still a decent hit for YYZ, so thats encouraging, although I doubt those 12" totals would verify around here on that run verbatim. Still, pretty solid backside snow on this run makes up for the initial RA/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Watch tonights 00z come in like a wrecking ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 just to add a little more weenie to today's Euro...it shows some CAPE in the 110 to 120 range in NW Indiana @ H150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 This thread really took off quick! @ Gilbert. There's going to be a lot of weening out in here if the next runs are just as good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 On the 18z, GFS 500mb, is the low digging a bit more into Mexico? Looks like it's farther south and west from the last run. Otherwise, still showing a sloppy mess for NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Seems like the GFS always has to play catchup to the Euro in this time range with these powerful storms. I'd expect the GFS to look better by 00z/06z/12z. yep, always seems to play catchup with lee side cyclogenesis from a deep southwest vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 12Z ECMWF has much of this precip falling when thicknesses are above 5400m. The line goes above Detroit and is very near Chicago in these forecast time frames. That would mean sleet, freezing rain, or rain for Detroit, close call for Chicago. 2013_12_16_12z_ECMWF_144hr.png 2013_12_16_12z_ECMWF_150hr.png Not to overstep my bounds or come across as a know-it-all (as you're the Meteorologist), but I recall several significant snowfalls in Detroit where the 540m (1000mb-500mb) thickness line was over/north of Detroit. The dominant precipitation type in each of these events was snow as well. *12/19/2008 *02/20/2011 *02/06/2008 Just as well, I recall numerous instances where Detroit saw mixing issues despite the 540m line being south of the city *1/1/2008 *2/21/2012 My point is, from what I gathered, the most critical line of thicknesses when determining precipitation types for places such as Detroit is the 1300m line (1000mb-850mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 wow maybe not much, but for once I'm in a part of one bulleye lol the bulls eye a week out, not usually the best place to be I'd like a good system snow! Um.... NO. You have enough snow on the ground and on the way already. We get the system. I bet Detroit gets 18 inches and I get like 8 inches. Typical outcome here.... I would like to see a rain snow line right on the Detroit river, sorry Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Not to overstep my bounds or come across as a know-it-all (as you're the Meteorologist), but I recall several significant snowfalls in Detroit where the 540m (1000mb-500mb) thickness line was over/north of Detroit. The dominant precipitation type in each of these events was snow as well. My point is, from what I gathered, the most critical line of thicknesses when determining precipitation types for places such as Detroit is the 1300m line (1000mb-850mb). Yes, of course, the 5400 meters is just a rough guideline, and the temperatures below 10000 feet matter the most. You can (if you want to) access the GFS forecast soundings, but not ECMWF. None of these things will be 100% accurate at 144 hours, so I was just trying to give my two cents. *edit* out here in the Rocky Mountains, we just don't care about 1000-500 thickness. Rain never falls in December through February. Sleet is almost unheard of. We have had one or two instances of freezing drizzle in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The track on the EURO reminds me of the FEB 6th 2008 storm. Any thoughts? That is exactly what it looks like, and these 2 systems do have some similarities to them. Both of their parent vorts dove down into Mexico before lifting out. Both lows tracked into IN before lifting ENE. Both had initial waves a couple days previous. Both have big time severe potentials (that one was the Super Tuesday Outbreak). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Saturday night-Sunday has a SVR look to it based on quick glance of Euro and GFS in OH Valley. Wouldn't be surprised to see some temps near 70 up to the OH river ahead of that CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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