A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 A Texas clipper. haha I keep getting you and thundersnow mixed with those avs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z GEM meteogram for Detroit...eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 haha I keep getting you and thundersnow mixed with those avs Ha, funny thing is he was on the other side of the tornado in my av with a completely different (better) perspective of it. 12z GFS ensembles have started rolling out. Quite a bit of variation, which is to be extended beyond 120hrs. Some members look very similar to the op, but really don't see any amped up too crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ice ice baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 in regards to speed....at least for the SW trough....not the LP itself later on MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1150 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013 ..TROF AFFECTING THE WESTERN U.S. ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD WHICH CONCLUDES THURSDAY EVENING...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP UPPER TROF WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY. THE GUIDANCE DIFFER BUT THE SPREAD IS REASONABLE FOR AN 84 HOUR FORECAST. ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE EQUATION IS THE 00Z UKMET WITH THE 00Z CMC SOMEWHAT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION. MEANWHILE...THE SLOWEST AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS ARE THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 06Z GEFS MEAN. THE MULTI-DAY SPAGHETTI TRENDS AT 564 DM SUGGEST A WESTWARD/SLOWER SOLUTION IN TIME. IT SEEMS LIKE THE GUIDANCE ALWAYS TRY TO ACCELERATE SUCH SYSTEMS TOO FAR TO THE EAST WITH SLOWER MODELS TENDING TO VERIFY BETTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's still way too early to write that potential off. A very tight baroclonic zone looks to develop and that usually screams sleet, freezing rain. The 12z GFS definitely did not look good for our region - would be a classic "Grinch storm" melting away all the snow just before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The 12z GFS definitely did not look good for our region - would be a classic "Grinch storm" melting away all the snow just before Christmas. Its rainy yes but I think Ice would be a big concern. 12z GGEM illustrates my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Given what we've seen so far, I'd be taken aback if the 12z EURO went back to solution similar to the 12z/15 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ice ice baby Disastrous. Especially right before Christmas. I'd give it about a 0.5% of verifying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Its rainy yes but I think Ice would be a big concern. 12z GGEM illustrates my point. Given what we've seen so far, I'd be taken aback if the 12z EURO went back to solution similar to the 12z/15 run. The GFS still seems to be calling for cold weather for Christmas, albeit not exceptional cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 ice ice baby Interesting map there. You can see how it picks up on a relative minimum on the west side of Lake Michigan, probably due to onshore flow. But with the cold pattern as of late and the lake being relatively cold, it would be interesting to see how it would factor into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looking at 96 I get a strange feeling that the EURO may try and cut off the srn stream low. edit: on second inspection, doesn't look all that worse than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Disastrous. Especially right before Christmas. I'd give it about a 0.5% of verifying though. Such a nice storm, but lack of cold air, figures...Thankfully we are still days out, and anything can happen. However seriously that's the last thing we want in S/E Michigan, that much frzr would be terrible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 euro likely sticking the same general idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Holy Euro! by hr 144, by temp profiles, looks like heavy snow for all S/Mi.. Holy crap lol....Euro brings like 2' of snow for Detroit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro slower and more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 b2b major hits for ORD on the Euro, it's been a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro a bit slower and more cold air. the slower was def surprising given some of the recent trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Holy smokes. Major snowstorm here on the Euro. Wow. Looks slower too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro looks nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Holy smokes. Major snowstorm here on the Euro. Wow. Looks slower too the best part is we have a little thermal wiggle room with this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks pretty good for N IL, WI, MI, etc. Nicer high nosing in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Ive never seen a model showing this much snow for S/E Michigan...24"+ totals... HAAA,...Take it to CHASE BANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 One thing is becoming very obvious, this storm is gonna have very high QPF potential on all sides of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 2013......the year of the Christmas Blockbuster Barn Burner Blizzard...get your tickets now Price just went up on the tickets...gonna wait on last minute scalpers??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z Euro looks really similar to the 12z run yesterday but its a bit bit quicker allowing it to be a little north of said run before that high pushes it east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 lol 24-26" of snow for Detroit on the Euro, now that truly would make for a Christmas to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Euro slower and more cold air. Very subtle change in placement of that vortex over northern Quebec/Baffin Island. Forces the sfc ridge across the northern Plains to orient itself in a manner more favourable for cold air to funnel into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Borderline clocking of freezing rain here in the LAF on the euro. Has us at 32-33 the entire time with multiple inches of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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