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December 13-14th Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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The earlier evening runs of the RAP/HRRR/RGEM might end up being right, or at least close...

 

Better snows are pushing northeast across the LOT CWA...Extending all the way back to where re-development is occuring near the QC and NW. Missouri.

 

My 2.9 for ORD might be a touch low then. Talk about a last minute victory.

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lol @ LOT knocking down totals...

 

THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR SNOW...BACKED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR
THIS EVENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES THE LARGER AREA RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN IL/IN/KY/TN IS ROBBING THE NORTHERN STREAM OF MOISTURE
RESULTING IN LESS SNOW COVERAGE AND LIGHTER SNOWFALL RATES THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.

EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH SNOW FALLING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. BY NOON THINKING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
AND HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE EAST OF A WOODSTOCK TO MILFORD IL
LINE. HOWEVER NOTE BY HEAVIER AMOUNTS...ONLY EXPECTING UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOW TO FALL FROM NOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THIS EVENING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOCUSES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
LAKE MI WITH NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF SNOW EXPECTED. AS
WINDS SHIFT TO NE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE LAKE EFFECT WILL SHIFT
TO OVER NW INDIANA. THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE
AND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLD...THEREFORE ONLY
EXPECTING A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...KNOCKED DOWN SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT. HAVE AROUND A INCH FOR THE RFD AREA...WHICH MAY BE ON THE
GENEROUS SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...BUT NOW EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS
SEEING 6+ INCHES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AS THE
EVENT IS ONGOING. 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
343 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2013

SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow...
Snow coming to an end mostly by mid day. Some remaining
flurries/-sn for the afternoon in the far east depending on
forward progress of the wave. Radar returns weakening in the NW
and will let the advisory there go at 12z at this point. Enhanced
push of precip in the warm sector with moisture influx on sat
imagery as well...resulting in higher pops east of the I55
corridor, particularly east of I57. Another inch or two easily
through central Illinois, with another 2-3 in the far east.

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IWX mentioning possibility of heavier snows farther nw than originally thought due to progression of 700 mb low.  Radar returns through central IL look good as they progress ne.  This seems to be on track with initial thoughts before this system arrived that heavier snows would be east/se of Chicago area on eastward.  Only fly in the ointment is possibility of sleet mixing in over ne IN/nw Ohio as tongue of warmer air moves northward.

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Getting some high-quality SN with the well advertised pseudo-defo band feature.

 

Also, re: the RAP. It's almost always too quick with onset and hangs returns around for way too long. In this case it did prove useful for some last minute trends, in this case the last minute northward push/defo feature and the total lack of LE.

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Starting to snow pretty good here in Hamilton. Picked up just over an inch in the last hour though it started to taper off just a few minutes ago where I'm at. Looks like the Hamilton-Oakville corridor is getting it pretty good from LES with some 30dbz returns very close by.

Per Buf radar it looks like some band is lifting toward Toronto area.

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Starting to snow pretty good here in Hamilton. Picked up just over an inch in the last hour though it started to taper off just a few minutes ago where I'm at. Looks like the Hamilton-Oakville corridor is getting it pretty good from LES with some 30dbz returns very close by.

 

Pouring snow per QEW highway cams in Burlington.

 

NAM finally caved. Sends the band into Toronto later today. Looks like snow has already begun at YYZ so no snow lost fighting dry air. I going to revise my call for Toronto to 5-8" (north to south gradient).

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Very nice 6z runs! NAM even has a spot of 0.75"+ at the border. All 3 (GFS, NAM, RGEM) juiced up some. Thinking/hoping we see 6" today!

Not too far from both of us...I haven't measured yet but looks possible

 

 

000

NWUS53 KDTX 141046

LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

546 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0545 AM SNOW BROWNSTOWN TOWNSHIP 42.15N 83.26W

12/14/2013 M2.5 INCH WAYNE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

5 HOUR TOTAL.

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Pouring snow per QEW highway cams in Burlington.

 

NAM finally caved. Sends the band into Toronto later today. Looks like snow has already begun at YYZ so no snow lost fighting dry air. I going to revise my call for Toronto to 5-8" (north to south gradient).

Already signs that the LE band is beginning to shift northward. Nice trends on the overnight euro,nam and NAM WRF which all bumped up QPF for YYZ and the city of Toronto. Currently some light flurries here in north york.

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Already signs that the LE band is beginning to shift northward. Nice trends on the overnight euro,nam and NAM WRF which all bumped up QPF for YYZ and the city of Toronto. Currently some light flurries here in north york.

 

I noticed that with even just very weak returns the snow is coming down hard enough around the airport to produce some accums. on the roads.

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I noticed that with even just very weak returns the snow is coming down hard enough around the airport to produce some accums. on the roads.

I'm hoping nws busts with that 4-8" call down here,i'm already close to 2 inches and with 13F temp this stuff piles up fast!

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