Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 The earlier evening runs of the RAP/HRRR/RGEM might end up being right, or at least close... Better snows are pushing northeast across the LOT CWA...Extending all the way back to where re-development is occuring near the QC and NW. Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The earlier evening runs of the RAP/HRRR/RGEM might end up being right, or at least close... Better snows are pushing northeast across the LOT CWA...Extending all the way back to where re-development is occuring near the QC and NW. Missouri. My 2.9 for ORD might be a touch low then. Talk about a last minute victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 official 09z snow board ob is 2.4" ~4" snow depth including old snow and grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 3 inches as of 2:40 a.am ET at Plymouth IN. Snow progressing nicely across IWX area with models amping up the juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 lol @ LOT knocking down totals... THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE APPALACHIANS WHILE A SECONDARY LOWFORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGSTHROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR SNOW...BACKED OFF SNOWFALL TOTALS FORTHIS EVENT. LATEST RADAR INDICATES THE LARGER AREA RAIN ACROSSSOUTHERN IL/IN/KY/TN IS ROBBING THE NORTHERN STREAM OF MOISTURERESULTING IN LESS SNOW COVERAGE AND LIGHTER SNOWFALL RATES THANORIGINALLY THOUGHT.EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH SNOW FALLING ACROSSTHE ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING. BY NOON THINKING THE MOST WIDESPREADAND HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE EAST OF A WOODSTOCK TO MILFORD ILLINE. HOWEVER NOTE BY HEAVIER AMOUNTS...ONLY EXPECTING UP TO ANADDITIONAL 0.5 INCH OF SNOW TO FALL FROM NOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.THIS EVENING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOCUSES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OFLAKE MI WITH NO MORE THAN A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF SNOW EXPECTED. ASWINDS SHIFT TO NE THROUGH THE EVENING...THE LAKE EFFECT WILL SHIFTTO OVER NW INDIANA. THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVEAND THE AIR ALOFT IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COLD...THEREFORE ONLYEXPECTING A TENTH OR SO OF SNOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGHMIDNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...KNOCKED DOWN SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THISEVENT. HAVE AROUND A INCH FOR THE RFD AREA...WHICH MAY BE ON THEGENEROUS SIDE. AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WILL SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALLAMOUNTS...BUT NOW EXPECTING 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH A FEW ISOLATED SPOTSSEEING 6+ INCHES. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AS THEEVENT IS ONGOING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 3.5" now in Muncie, and every bit of it is sticking to the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 lol @ LOT knocking down totals... Actually, checking out their new map...The "lowered totals" are really not that much lower than previously forecasted... RFD is still around 1", ORD is still 2-4", but they did ditch the widespread 6-8" area far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks like it might be a good day to spend in the truck.... So are the snow maps out to lunch on this one ?? GFS and NAM are certainly on the moist side this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Lincoln IL343 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2013.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 323 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2013SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow...Snow coming to an end mostly by mid day. Some remainingflurries/-sn for the afternoon in the far east depending onforward progress of the wave. Radar returns weakening in the NWand will let the advisory there go at 12z at this point. Enhancedpush of precip in the warm sector with moisture influx on satimagery as well...resulting in higher pops east of the I55corridor, particularly east of I57. Another inch or two easilythrough central Illinois, with another 2-3 in the far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 just over 5" at 415 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 IWX mentioning possibility of heavier snows farther nw than originally thought due to progression of 700 mb low. Radar returns through central IL look good as they progress ne. This seems to be on track with initial thoughts before this system arrived that heavier snows would be east/se of Chicago area on eastward. Only fly in the ointment is possibility of sleet mixing in over ne IN/nw Ohio as tongue of warmer air moves northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks like it might be a good day to spend in the truck.... So are the snow maps out to lunch on this one ?? GFS and NAM are certainly on the moist side this AM. Very nice 6z runs! NAM even has a spot of 0.75"+ at the border. All 3 (GFS, NAM, RGEM) juiced up some. Thinking/hoping we see 6" today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Right around an inch, with some light snow still falling. Not much compared to areas east, but a nice refresher. Snow is definitely wetter than the last few snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 MKX cancelled the LESW. that was one of the worst calls on their part in a long time....was so obviously not happening About 1" and some change...should add another 1-2" EDIT: 1 and change looks like it's closer to 2". Radar looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Starting to snow pretty good here in Hamilton. Picked up just over an inch in the last hour though it started to taper off just a few minutes ago where I'm at. Looks like the Hamilton-Oakville corridor is getting it pretty good from LES with some 30dbz returns very close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Getting some high-quality SN with the well advertised pseudo-defo band feature. Also, re: the RAP. It's almost always too quick with onset and hangs returns around for way too long. In this case it did prove useful for some last minute trends, in this case the last minute northward push/defo feature and the total lack of LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Solid band about to move into Metro Detroit 25dbz in the core of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Starting to snow pretty good here in Hamilton. Picked up just over an inch in the last hour though it started to taper off just a few minutes ago where I'm at. Looks like the Hamilton-Oakville corridor is getting it pretty good from LES with some 30dbz returns very close by. Per Buf radar it looks like some band is lifting toward Toronto area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Starting to snow pretty good here in Hamilton. Picked up just over an inch in the last hour though it started to taper off just a few minutes ago where I'm at. Looks like the Hamilton-Oakville corridor is getting it pretty good from LES with some 30dbz returns very close by. Pouring snow per QEW highway cams in Burlington. NAM finally caved. Sends the band into Toronto later today. Looks like snow has already begun at YYZ so no snow lost fighting dry air. I going to revise my call for Toronto to 5-8" (north to south gradient). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Blowing/Drifting low visibility....not sure how much snow but more guess is 1-2"?, plus my current temp is 16f! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Very nice 6z runs! NAM even has a spot of 0.75"+ at the border. All 3 (GFS, NAM, RGEM) juiced up some. Thinking/hoping we see 6" today! Not too far from both of us...I haven't measured yet but looks possible 000 NWUS53 KDTX 141046 LSRDTX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 546 AM EST SAT DEC 14 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0545 AM SNOW BROWNSTOWN TOWNSHIP 42.15N 83.26W 12/14/2013 M2.5 INCH WAYNE MI TRAINED SPOTTER 5 HOUR TOTAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Pouring snow per QEW highway cams in Burlington. NAM finally caved. Sends the band into Toronto later today. Looks like snow has already begun at YYZ so no snow lost fighting dry air. I going to revise my call for Toronto to 5-8" (north to south gradient). Already signs that the LE band is beginning to shift northward. Nice trends on the overnight euro,nam and NAM WRF which all bumped up QPF for YYZ and the city of Toronto. Currently some light flurries here in north york. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Already signs that the LE band is beginning to shift northward. Nice trends on the overnight euro,nam and NAM WRF which all bumped up QPF for YYZ and the city of Toronto. Currently some light flurries here in north york. I noticed that with even just very weak returns the snow is coming down hard enough around the airport to produce some accums. on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I noticed that with even just very weak returns the snow is coming down hard enough around the airport to produce some accums. on the roads. I'm hoping nws busts with that 4-8" call down here,i'm already close to 2 inches and with 13F temp this stuff piles up fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 3.6" here at 7am, SWE of 0.34"... just a hair over 10:1. Hoping we can do better ratios in whats coming now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm hoping nws busts with that 4-8" call down here,i'm already close to 2 inches and with 13F temp this stuff piles up fast! Look at the national radar loop. 24 hours of snowfall to go. I think you've got a good chance of going over that range with 2" down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 wonder if we are seeing some seeder/feeder mechanisms coming into play...really high end SN with occasional monster flakes starting to mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Best snowflakes of the night currently, for the most part it has been the sand type snow, now we have transitioned to mostly flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Best snowflakes of the night currently, for the most part it has been the sand type snow, now we have transitioned to mostly flakes. heaviest snow of the year here as well...absolutely monster flakes as we push 25-30 dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 35-40dbz returns staying onshore just north of hamilton, through the burlington/oakville area. Already seeing reports of 2-4" down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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