jaxjagman Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Storm Data AND UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENA WITH LATE REPORTS AND CORRECTIONS http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/sd/sd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Another tool from the NCDA.Using Lawrenceburg as an example when the F5 hit there back in 1998 It's easier to put on all events for what state and county you use http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE# Edit:The F5 in Lawrenceburg could have been much worse than anyone could have imagined.Adjacent to it's path was the city Ethridge which is home to one of the largest Amish communities in the state of Tn,luckily it just went through the fields basically.As most people know,Amish builds their own homes and basically they never would have known what could have been without electricity or any source of communication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Joe Renken and Josh Herman Bearing Sea Blog http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/p/bsr-forecast-maps.html http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/bsr/ http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1516/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Tornado Outbreaks Data http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 While checking out twitter today, I came across this link to a Compendium of SSW data sets: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 I know I had two other links, but THIS is the correct link for the daily reanalysis page: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/plot20thc.day.v2.pl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Interesting find from a meteorologist in the MA forum regarding how the WPC generates their snowfall and other winter precip types probability forecasts: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Found this nice write up on 300 -250mb level while trying to learn more about what was causing the lift over SW VA this evening. https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/winds/JetStream_Stuff/300_200_chart.htm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Found this nice website that has some limited, but nice ECMWF data for the N. Hemisphere. I think it is all past data, but still useful http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 Found an interesting site from the University of Wisconsin with some non operation GOES 17 imagery: http://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=G17-ABI-FD-BAND01 Also, thanks to all for the good conversation lately (esp. Fall-Winter spec.), have been wanting to participate more, but swamped with work at this time. Although just catching up it looks like boring heat is the optimal word for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/ I don't believe this site has been shared on this thread. It's especially useful for it's snow&ice cover map as an alternative to https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snow-cover/ as well as having many other uses such as satellite imagery, NWS radar sites, and surface observations. You can thank Jax for finding it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 7 hours ago, *Flash* said: Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong thread, but does anyone have any good resources/links pertaining to future PDO behavior? It's leveled off recently.The dark shade is positive the white shade is negative.It could still stay weak/positive-negative into winter then drop off into winter http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/singapore.dat Edit:"Drop off", i mean going more positive, just wanted to clarify that to avoid confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Not sure who has CrankyWX site bookmarked, but i'd for sure do this one.You most certainly could delete a few you already have. http://www.stormhamster.com/resource.htm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 27, 2018 Share Posted November 27, 2018 Found a nice website for N. Hemisphere info: https://yannickpeings.wixsite.com/nhatmosphere/copy-of-october-november-1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Found a new toy for past MJO( some of you may already have this) : http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 A collection of realtime charts, some hard to find like AAM and GWO: http://atlas.niu.edu/ I'm not sure how to read some of this yet, but thought some might find it useful. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Finally found the site that has all the neat stratosphere prog maps I've been seeing in different places. https://stratobserve.com/tht_pvstr_maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51070870 Article about how the Euro uses ultraviolet beams from a satellite to gauge wind speeds in the atmosphere. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 If anyone (like me) has a masochistic urge to go back and look at old Himawari 8 images for comparison, here ye go: https://seg-web.nict.go.jp/wsdb_osndisk/shareDirDownload/bDw2maKV?sI=D531106,D531107,TI,D531106m,D531107m,TIm,evm&sIt=data_im&lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Current 90 day model bias. Hopefully these update in the page but maybe not. Won't bother with the Canadian, because they upgraded recently, but the old Canadian was in the 4-5+ degrees top cold at every period from 2-5 through 11-15. The most accurate 2-5 day temp forecast was NWS forecast offices, almost mirrored by GFS MOS. For longer range the Euro Op was best, but the GFS OP is surprisingly better than the Ensembles. The Canadian stunk at every level. Euro Ens GFSENS Euro Op GFS OP 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 Good find. I wouldn't argue with many of those, but I think(am nearly certain) the EPS has a really strong warm bias from d10-15 and also for the Weeklies. It is usually significantly warmer at 2m than any of the American model output. Not sure how those are generated, but the 90d timestamps might be skewing those. I can say from personal experience, the EPS has a warm bias in d10-15. Maybe the miss earlier in January and over Canada last week is skewing those maps as the past 90 days of modeling have had some wicked busts where modeling verified much warmer than modeled d10-15. Additionally, I would think that modeling would have some sort of correlational coefficient rating based on where features verified on a map - I would be interested to see those as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 50 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Good find. I wouldn't argue with many of those, but I think(am nearly certain) the EPS has a really strong warm bias from d10-15 and also for the Weeklies. It is usually significantly warmer at 2m than any of the American model output. Not sure how those are generated, but the 90d timestamps might be skewing those. I can say from personal experience, the EPS has a warm bias in d10-15. Maybe the miss earlier in January and over Canada last week is skewing those maps as the past 90 days of modeling have had some wicked busts where modeling verified much warmer than modeled d10-15. Additionally, I would think that modeling would have some sort of correlational coefficient rating based on where features verified on a map - I would be interested to see those as well. From what I've seen it's been verifying similarly since November or December. It is much warmer than the North American models because they've been ridiculous. the off the chart GEFS had been verifying almost 8 degrees too cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 Seriously great site, @John1122. I could spend days there. This is line graph data from the same site. I would set forth the idea that four time periods are skewing normal model tendencies during the past 90 days(early Nov, mid Dec, early Jan and mid Jan). Looks like there is a big bust in December where models missed by 10-15 degrees and early and mid January where models busted by 7-10+ degrees during week one and two. Overall, January misses have skewed model tendencies...as we know January has not been a good month for modeling. I know the big bust in early January was where modeling was too cold. I am assuming the miss in December is also the same based on the idea that we have been head faked twice and Christmas being warm was a huge miss. For example, the December 13th 12-day forecast would actually verify on December 25th which we know was warm. I might assume Novembers model numbers were actually too warm as twelve days after October 30 were a period of severe cold. December and January were both well documented bad time frames for modeling as was early November when modeling completely missed the cold. What would be interesting is to see the rest of the year. Not sure how to dig those up. Interestingly the GFS ensemble was better than the Euro at spotting cold last November from the d12 range. It was nearly two degrees better than the EPS(albeit bad scores for both). As suspected, the GEFS spotted the cold snap in mid November. So overall, I would suggest normal model tendencies are skewed and potentially might misrepresent modeling as being "too cold" because of an anomalous two month warm period(December to January). So it is a tale of two contrasting biases. In early November(when the pattern changed to cold) the models were too warm. During December and January, modeling was too cold during near record warmth as modeling almost always has trouble with extremes. So, those maps above have two months of cold bias and one week of warm bias. So, makes sense they are skewed. So, I think we have to consider current model tendencies but be wary of using past performance as and indicator of future performance. For example, I think many assumed modeling in December(that predicted warmth) was possibly wrong, because its past performance had been too warm in early November. The warm December forecasts verified. It is possible that the same thing will happen in reverse where modeling busts high. Not saying that will happen, but the antecedent performance of November certainly did not continue into December. In other words, sometimes modeling mistakes can move from a cold bias to a warm bias vey quickly as occurred in November. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 CPC has a new (at least to me) interactive MJO site that lets you see lagged composites from each phase for 3 month periods throughout the year: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/LaggedComposites/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Found a fun new tool this AM: https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=MIMICTPW2.100¢er=11.178401873711785,-157.14843750000003&zoom=2&width=1316&height=780&basemap=bluemarble&labels=line&view=leaflet&timeproduct=MIMICTPW2×pan=-24t&animationspeed=100&animate=true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted December 8, 2022 Share Posted December 8, 2022 On 10/19/2018 at 11:11 PM, jaxjagman said: Not sure who has CrankyWX site bookmarked, but i'd for sure do this one.You most certainly could delete a few you already have. http://www.stormhamster.com/resource.htm I'll take this opportunity to aver how much I appreciated this voice in the community. It was sad to see him drop out. A quick search for him just now, long after his departure, reveals that the domain has expired (and been grabbed by a domain grabber). I know he was controversial; but I learned quite a lot from him, and still miss him. (hence the search). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 Thought I would drop these videos in on how to read a Skew-T. This guy does a great job. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Found this over in the West Coast sub forum: https://cw3e.ucsd.edu/iwv-and-ivt-forecasts/#IWV atmospheric river models if anyone wants to fantasize about being in the Sierras 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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