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Carvers Gap

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The synoptic snow has ended for me, hopefully that area moving towards Western Kentucky can pop a few showers here this afternoon/evening. Otherwise I'll hope out hope that I can get another 1/2-1 inch tomorrow night into Monday. If so, I'll be around 10 inches on the season. I got almost 5 inches of it from two clippers/upslope, the rest has been like Johnny Cash building his Caddy.

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Late in the period, the 12z Euro shows the a cold front draped west to east across the eastern US.  Looks to be north of us.  The PNA is strongly negative.  Looks like a pattern change and not a relaxation to me.  Maybe we can luck out and have a piece of energy go under the eastern ridge or the front drapes far enough south.  Looks like a SE ridge set-up to me.  We'll see if this verifies.  I still have my doubts on the LR pattern.  I think we see a thaw and a return to cold.  Taken verbatim, the 12z reveals a pattern that is not transient and is not conducive towards snow in any shape, form, or fashion past 144.  If that is the new pattern, we need that one to change in a hurry.  Our only hope would be for the front to drape across the TN Valley and catch impulses out of the SW.  Looks like we are on the wrong line of latitude at the moment as is often the case when living in the south.

 

edit:  I still do not think the mid-week pattern is being modeled correctly.  I do think this cold spell ends w/ a big storm.  Just a hunch.  Could easily be wrong.

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Saw where WxNC posted the HPC's model diagnostic discussion.  It is interesting.  Looks like the are riding the ensembles and SREF.  Interesting.  I don't know that it means anything about sensible wx here.  But explains a lot...

.DEPTH OF TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY......LEADING TOWARD A PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES...MASS FIELD PREFERENCE: 06Z GEFS MEANPRECIPITATION PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWFENSEMBLE MEAN...APPROXIMATED BY WPC QPFTHE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AS ABROADLY DEFINED SHORTWAVE DIGS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY3. AT A GLANCE...MASS FIELD DIFFERENCES WOULD NOT SEEM UNUSUALLYLARGE...BUT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS APPARENTLY VERYSENSITIVE TO THESE DIFFERENCES. FROM DAY 3 INTO DAY 4...THE 12ZGFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE VERY DRY...WITH NEAR ZERO PRECIPITATIONINLAND OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WHEREAS THEIR RESPECTIVEENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MUCH WETTER. THE 00Z UKMET WAS DRY...BUT THECANADIAN WAS WET. THE NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS WETTEST OF ALL...BUT ISALSO MORE SHARPLY AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING IN THESOUTHERN PLAINS.PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BREAK OUTIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EASTERN U.S. JET...AND THEN BECOMEENHANCED TOWARD DAY 4 WHEN THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS ROUNDS THEBASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARD THE GULF COAST AND CAROLINAS. MODELBIASES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE NAM IS TOO AMPLIFIED AND PLACING TOOMUCH PRECIPITATION IN THE COLD SECTOR...AND THAT THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET  ARE TOO DRY IN THE JET ENTRANCE REGION AT THESELONGER LEAD TIMES. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH THE WPC QPF...WINTERWEATHER...AND MEDIUM RANGE DESKS...WE FAVOR A BLEND OF QPF FROMTHE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE LATTER IS USEDTO DIMINISH THE 06Z GEFS MEAN QPF TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS. THATCONSENSUS IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED BY ANY PARTICULAR OPERATIONALMODEL...BUT WILL BE REPRESENTED IN WPC QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS.
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12z Euro has off and on periods of snow across TN from hour 200ish onward.  SE ridge or not, I'll take my chances with a wet pattern in February.

 

I am just using the PSU site.  Look like the 0 C isotherm is north of TN during that time frame.  That does not sound too bad.  Care to extrapolate since we can't see it? Or of course, the famous Stovepipe jpeg bootleg is always a possibility.

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I am just using the PSU site.  Look like the 0 C isotherm is north of TN during that time frame.  That does not sound too bad.  Care to extrapolate since we can't see it? Or of course, the famous Stovepipe jpeg bootleg is always a possibility.

 

The 0C line is mostly north of us but wobbles around and technically the northern half of TN gets a little snow, probably back to rain then back to snow (1 to 2 inches verbatim).  Nothing to write home about, those details don't matter, but if that is the type of pattern we slide into going into February, I think that could produce for us better than Clipperfest '14 did.  If it's wet, I think climo will come through for us at some point.

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Let's hope the 18z is not completely correct.  Warms up and rains w/ very little chance for frozen precip after this cold spell is spent next week.  The negative PNA pretty much ends any chances of cold in the East south of Kentucky.  Let's hope the front gets strung out over TN and not north of us.  Unfortunately looks north. 

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If I'm not going to get snow, I'd rather be warm and not get it.

 

I honestly think we probably have a better chance with storms actually on the field and hoping we get some cold rather than a roaring northern stream allowing no storms at all. Neither are the best spot to be in for snow storms. But a pattern that actually allows  storms to form gives us a better chance of having one meet up with cold air at some point than what we have now.  

 

We are finding every way possible to avoid having snow in winter. Unprecedented warmth. Unrelenting cold. All have the same result. On the positive side, the last time we had 3 very below average snow winters in a row, the next two were dynamite.

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If I'm not going to get snow, I'd rather be warm and not get it.

 

I honestly think we probably have a better chance with storms actually on the field and hoping we get some cold rather than a roaring northern stream allowing no storms at all. Neither are the best spot to be in for snow storms. But a pattern that actually allows  storms to form gives us a better chance of having one meet up with cold air at some point than what we have now.  

 

We are finding every way possible to avoid having snow in winter. Unprecedented warmth. Unrelenting cold. All have the same result. On the positive side, the last time we had 3 very below average snow winters in a row, the next two were dynamite.

 

Hints of El Nino next winter.  I believe you are exactly right.  What we really need to look for is the NAO going negative, even if barely.  It signaled this cold spell and I bet it signals the next snow storm.

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Took a look at the CPC teleconnection ensembles.  The NAO takes nose towards negative during the second week of Feb.  I believe that is the time frame to circle, late in the week say around Valentine's Day.

You sure that's right,it looks + to me

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

Sorry,my bad i was looking at the NAO..whew !!

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Took a look at the CPC teleconnection ensembles.  The NAO takes nose towards negative during the second week of Feb.  I believe that is the time frame to circle, late in the week say around Valentine's Day.

I assume Don S is going by the mean and not the esms as what you shown on the main board:

 

Some morning thoughts...

 

1. With this morning's light snowfall, it appears that Detroit has set a new January snowfall record.

2. Given the forecast teleconnections (EPO-/AO-), there is no need right now to panic about the sudden turn to warmer conditions on the extended range GFS. Some moderation, but not sustained warmth appears more likely. I have no changes in my thinking that the Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England areas will see above average snowfall for the 1/25-2/15 timeframe.

3. Odds continue to favor a lot of cold in Canada and the CONUS for February.

 
 
Now with this said ,if Don is right we have a realistic chance of a major ice storm down the line.The AO WAS -200 from the 26-28 so that should bring in much colder shallow air than what the models are showing right now in the valley,10 days or so,from the 26-28
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I'm surprised the 00Z NAM wasn't mentioned. It's pretty far to the south and before any phasing would occur if any. Is it possible the NAM could phase this thing and push it further north over time?

 

The snowfall amounts are eerily similar to the 1962-1963 New Years Eve/Day totals, but at a different angle. That phased and bombed out though and headed towards Nashville.

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I'm surprised the 00Z NAM wasn't mentioned. It's pretty far to the south and before any phasing would occur if any. Is it possible the NAM could phase this thing and push it further north over time?

 

The snowfall amounts are eerily similar to the 1962-1963 New Years Eve/Day totals, but at a different angle. That phased and bombed out though and headed towards Nashville.

Let's see what happens tomorrow after the sampled data gets ingested. It's probably a long shot but we might get lucky and the models line things up a bit differently in our favor.

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I'm surprised the 00Z NAM wasn't mentioned. It's pretty far to the south and before any phasing would occur if any. Is it possible the NAM could phase this thing and push it further north over time?

 

The snowfall amounts are eerily similar to the 1962-1963 New Years Eve/Day totals, but at a different angle. That phased and bombed out though and headed towards Nashville.

0z runs are evidence that this storm system is yet to be modeled accurately. Might not get back this far...but IMO it's not done shifting way northwest.

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The GGEM at 204-228 is a full on big time ice storm from the Plateau west over the entire western half of the Tennessee Valley. The GFS is actually pretty close to the same set up. After this, for days on end the GFS pretty much keeps the surface freezing line right on the Tennessee/Kentucky border. Occasionally dipping below to give different parts of Tennessee wintry precip.

 

PT_PN_204_0000.gif

 

PT_PN_228_0000.gif

 

usa_pt10.gif

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The GGEM at 204-228 is a full on big time ice storm from the Plateau west over the entire western half of the Tennessee Valley. The GFS is actually pretty close to the same set up. After this, for days on end the GFS pretty much keeps the surface freezing line right on the Tennessee/Kentucky border. Occasionally dipping below to give different parts of Tennessee wintry precip.

 

PT_PN_204_0000.gif

 

PT_PN_228_0000.gif

 

usa_pt10.gif

 

This is what I've been been harping on the past several days.  I'm not discouraged at all about teleconnections when we have boat loads of precip and the cold air on our doorstep to the north.  Yes, if you fart in the wrong direction we could have rain but it doesn't take much to put us in a big time wintry situation.  Another case in point, the 0z Euro.  It also brings a massive snow storm to western half of TN and our friends in northern MS.  This is snowfall from hour 204 onward:

 

yxBLG5i.png

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That PNA goes negative with no blocking in the Atlantic...it will not snow here IMO. Will be record warmth. Memphis maybe. Anywhere else, probably not. Now, I don't see a permanent break down of the PNA and the Atlantic is hinting at blocking. Also, the vortex to our north can help. Second week of Feb is what I am watching.

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LOL at the 1068 high in western Canada AND the snow accumulation map at 264 and 288 respectively......

u9aqe3ud.jpg. (Shameless plug to get holdouts to consider the AmericanWx model suite)

It will be interesting to see if we can score after the projected warmup. By the way, the warm up is already looking less impressive today than yesterday. Lets see what the Euro says here in a few minutes.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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12z Euro shows rain to snow early next week.  If the temps were a tad colder it would be a big deal.  As is, only a 2-4 inch swath in middle/eastern part of TN.

 

Edit:  That is shown on the SV maps, WxBell maps not as aggressive.  The point is, we're close to something during that time period.

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This is what I've been been harping on the past several days.  I'm not discouraged at all about teleconnections when we have boat loads of precip and the cold air on our doorstep to the north.  Yes, if you fart in the wrong direction we could have rain but it doesn't take much to put us in a big time wintry situation.  Another case in point, the 0z Euro.  It also brings a massive snow storm to western half of TN and our friends in northern MS.  This is snowfall from hour 204 onward:

 

yxBLG5i.png

That is some great eye-candy, if only it were the day before the event, as I know that will change, I am right under the over 9" amount north of Nashville, sweet

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