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I am just a lurker mostly here - not very weather savvy - although I have really learned a lot about models, etc. from reading here.  Think it is more prudent to read than comment!!! Not many folks from MS here it appears but since this forum does include Mississippi, would someone please update every once in a while if there is any potential for wintry precip in Mississippi - specifically East Central MS close to MS State Univ.  We are having a few snow flurries this afternoon on and off although it looks like the heavier flurries are off to my southwest.  Really enjoy following this forum - am jealous of everyone's knowledge!

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Jump right on in...we can put Mississippi in our discussions. With this suppressed pattern, could be some opportunities. Look at Houston now. Crazy business.

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0z Euro 51 ensemble members:

 

Knoxville
All show trace or more
20 show inch or more
9 show 2 inches or more
5 show 4 inches or more
1 shows a foot
Ensemble mean of 1.4

Nashville
All but 9 show a trace or more
17 show inch or more
7 show 2 inches or more
5 show 4 inches or more
1 shows 9 inches
Ensemble mean of 1.1

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0z Euro 51 ensemble members:

Knoxville

All show trace or more

20 show inch or more

9 show 2 inches or more

5 show 4 inches or more

1 shows a foot

Ensemble mean of 1.4

Nashville

All but 9 show a trace or more

17 show inch or more

7 show 2 inches or more

5 show 4 inches or more

1 shows 9 inches

Ensemble mean of 1.1

Is this for the full 240 hr run
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0z Euro 51 ensemble members:

Knoxville

All show trace or more

20 show inch or more

9 show 2 inches or more

5 show 4 inches or more

1 shows a foot

Ensemble mean of 1.4

Nashville

All but 9 show a trace or more

17 show inch or more

7 show 2 inches or more

5 show 4 inches or more

1 shows 9 inches

Ensemble mean of 1.1

Is this for the full 240 hr run

Yes

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Man, what a COLD pattern we are stuck in.  It's been about as crazy cold as possible without solid snow cover.  Stove, I would assume that KTRI is similar to Knoxville wrt to the Euro Ensembles..........?

 

More clipper love

Bristol

All have measurable snow

39 have 1 inch or more

18 have 2 inches or more

8 have 4 inches or more

3 have 6 inches or more

1 has a foot

Ensemble Mean of 2.4 inches

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Just glancing at the GEFS 12z and it appears most individuals must be a bit deeper with the cold from 192-300. The 850 line stays around I-40, or even a bit further south (except from 252-264 where it briefly heads into southern KY) at times for most of that timeframe with ABUNDANT moisture being shown. Time will tell, but I am guessing there are some pretty tasty individual members showing quite a prolonged event.

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Sure looks like the flood gates are fixing to open.

If you are looking for warmth in the first couple of weeks of February, this is what you want to see. Our only hope is the NAO and AO can save us. There has been some indication we might pop a -NAO, but I don't see that on Jax's charts.

Just for the record..................yuck, those are awful. lol

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For anyone that follows, there are actually a couple of individual GFS members from 12z that give 3-5 inches for a good chunk of east TN. One of them looked kind of screwy and one of them kind of looked like the 122 Canadian from today (just with a more expansive QPF field). I will again say, if we can somehow luck into a miracle and get some QPF back this way, the ratios would likely be insane (20-1 or better).

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6z NAM looking like a wave rides up the front. Not a bad look. I think the models don't have the energy portrayed correctly as evidenced by the wide range of solutions. The 0z Euro (days 7-10) quickly breaks down the cold pattern thereafter. If it is to be believed a -PNA occurs, and with little blocking in the Atlantic, a true forch is portrayed. A new pattern or a thaw, I don't know. But when the trough went West in December, it took a month to get it out of there. For those who wanted a negative PNA....remember the only time we have gotten cold at all is when it was positive. With no blocking in the Atlantic, the stage is set for at least 7-10 days of above normal temps and zero chances for frozen precip. to begin Feb. Without the +PNA this winter we would have torched. As it is, we have had a few things to track and finally some old school cold to show our kids.

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I'm hoping with all the hope I can muster. Sadly the NAM at 84 is not particularly good.

Might want to see Dacula's comments also on the SE board. Mentions it looks like a phase. If NAM is correct its portrayal opens the door for a shift NW. Can it get to the Plateau? That might be tough. But Knoxville eastward has something to watch. It will be a stretch to get here, but I have seen many times where a North Carolina storms hits us at the last minute. Odds are in their favor. But the NAM actually could put them and us in the game. Time will tell. Something to watch. I am not saying a storm is coming, but the NAM looks realistic IMO. Its features are more westward.

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FWIW, the Euro weeklies have been money this winter. Seems like I remember Mr. Bob mentioning a week in early Feb would be warm with a return to cold (based on those weeklies) mid to late month.

Also, it now appears that January will completely erase December's substantial early warmth and bring us to just below normal for the two months combined. That is impressive.

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FWIW, the 12z NAM makes a major attempt to phase the system over the Baja w/ the northern stream...not there yet.  But if it phases, it is coming northwest.  Right now the snow "belt" is over SC and central GA.  IMO, that is coming northwest.  How far, IDK?  Good trend.

 

Burger has some great disco on the SE board.  Mentions a few negatives for the 12z run as well.  Great disco over there. 

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I hope the trend is indeed our friend. I just don't know if it's going to be able to must up much for the Tennessee Valley though. Going to be a ton of dry air in place and as of now, we're on the fringe. Normally, without a -NAO I'd fear it cutting west of the Apps. This year the +NAO hasn't mattered to storm track that much at all and it's been a coastal bonanza.

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The 12z GGEM, which had been the most inland/robust model, sends everything out to sea for the most part. Either the NAM is pulling the coup of the century or it's almost fork time for this one. If nothing changes between now and the Sunday model suite, I would think this one is forked for the Tennessee Valley. 

 

This clipper, while still being fairly weak compared to clippers that track well for this area, at least makes me not mind a few more of them coming through. But all in all, I'm all for any kind of pattern change. I don't care if we do get warm at this point. The pattern we are in just isn't working at all but it has nearly doubled my electric bill.

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The 12z GGEM, which had been the most inland/robust model, sends everything out to sea for the most part. Either the NAM is pulling the coup of the century or it's almost fork time for this one. If nothing changes between now and the Sunday model suite, I would think this one is forked for the Tennessee Valley. 

 

This clipper, while still being fairly weak compared to clippers that track well for this area, at least makes me not mind a few more of them coming through. But all in all, I'm all for any kind of pattern change. I don't care if we do get warm at this point. The pattern we are in just isn't working at all but it has nearly doubled my electric bill.

 

The 9z SREF probabilities look surprisingly good for TN.  I'm not sold on any solution yet and won't be until Sun/Mon.  I'm also watching closely the situation next weekend.  The GFS shows it too warm but I think there is wiggle room there for a snow storm.  I'm also fine with a warm up.  A reset of the pattern is a good thing.  Lots of winter to go with Feb and early March. 

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The 9z SREF probabilities look surprisingly good for TN.  I'm not sold on any solution yet and won't be until Sun/Mon.  I'm also watching closely the situation next weekend.  The GFS shows it too warm but I think there is wiggle room there for a snow storm.  I'm also fine with a warm up.  A reset of the pattern is a good thing.  Lots of winter to go with Feb and early March. 

The SREF is run off the WRF/NAM members mostly. That's why it's showing a similar solution to the NAM.

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I do not think it has been modeled properly for Weds.  I am betting on somebody getting a surprise storm.  Last week's snow up the coast was not modeled accurately until within 48 hrs.  Flow is too fast and the models can't keep up.  GFS long range is attempting to build the cold back into the East.  Time will tell.  Though I am well north of you all, finally got some snow today.  So, I am not complaining.

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