Lindsaywx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The euro and its ensembles break the ridge down but not as fast as the GFS it just collapses the thing. Not sure why people are freaking over the gfs hell just last week it was a torch for today.....I'm currently at 27.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z Euro is a Carolina/Georgia special by hour 144. Widespread 4-6 inches on the coastal side. Edit: 6-8 inches by hour 156 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 There is a fair amount of precip at the 200 hour mark and beyond but unfortunately it's a tad too warm this run. Close though, and I bet the ensembles still show opportunities. Edit: It ends on a snowy note at hour 240, of course hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 New to the forum. I've been lurking for the past month as a guest. Figured it was time for me to sign up! Stove, what do you think the chances are that coastal storm the Euro is showing trends NW? A 150-200 mile shift to the NW would dramatically increase our potential snow accumulation in East TN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 New to the forum. I've been lurking for the past month as a guest. Figured it was time for me to sign up! Stove, what do you think the chances are that coastal storm the Euro is showing trends NW? A 150-200 mile shift to the NW would dramatically increase our potential snow accumulation in East TN! I honestly don't know, but I'd wager this will move around quite a bit before all is said and done. We've seen NW trends many times before, so hopefully for our sake we do this time. And welcome to the forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 There is a fair amount of precip at the 200 hour mark and beyond but unfortunately it's a tad too warm this run. Close though, and I bet the ensembles still show opportunities. Edit: It ends on a snowy note at hour 240, of course hehe. Stove, It really presses in ANOTHER arctic high as the precip is running west to east under it day 10. It actually looked very GFS like in it's presentation days 7-9 I thought........hoping the cold air holds on long enough to give us something to track and have fun with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 New to the forum. I've been lurking for the past month as a guest. Figured it was time for me to sign up! Stove, what do you think the chances are that coastal storm the Euro is showing trends NW? A 150-200 mile shift to the NW would dramatically increase our potential snow accumulation in East TN! Welcome to the forum VFL, great to have new members join in and post. Go Vols! With that out of the way, I would say let's sit back and make sure the threat is real first. I think it is, but getting it to shift that far with the overall setup at 500 would be problematic I think. It's just one run that has it and it could very well be gone by the 0z run, so let's give it a few days to give us more clues! If the precip is more robust and some of the .1 to .2 could make it back this way (long shot), then with high ratios you could be looking at a 2-4 type powdery event. Not likely, but I guess you never want to rule anything out with the event still 5-6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Welcome to the forum VFL, great to have new members join in and post. Go Vols! With that out of the way, I would say let's sit back and make sure the threat is real first. I think it is, but getting it to shift that far with the overall setup at 500 would be problematic I think. It's just one run that has it and it could very well be gone by the 0z run, so let's give it a few days to give us more clues! If the precip is more robust and some of the .1 to .2 could make it back this way (long shot), then with high ratios you could be looking at a 2-4 type powdery event. Not likely, but I guess you never want to rule anything out with the event still 5-6 days away. This is kinda my hope - if we can get just a slight jog north and west, and maybe a little less dry air, we could get a powdery couple inches that hangs around across most of tn. The RH at 700mb tells the tale though. Its just hitting a brick wall of dry air right around the southern tn border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well, I hope that WxJordan (met in the SE forum) is right. He has been looking at the models and where the front has been showing on the GFS and EURO and wondering why a storm hasn't been showing until today. I appreciate his feedback in the other forum, but I don't know how he can see this coming further west than what the OP Euro at 12z shows. I guess you could make the argument of the 850 low in relation to the surface low, but I just don't see the longwave trough in a position to allow anything further inland. I'd love to be wrong and maybe he is onto something, but I can't "buy" just yet for anyone west of the Carolinas, and probably not the mountains of NC either at this point. Plenty of time to change I guess and should be fun to see someone in the SE (even if it's the coastal areas) get a good snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well, I hope that WxJordan (met in the SE forum) is right. He has been looking at the models and where the front has been showing on the GFS and EURO and wondering why a storm hasn't been showing until today. I appreciate his feedback in the other forum, but I don't know how he can see this coming further west than what the OP Euro at 12z shows. I guess you could make the argument of the 850 low in relation to the surface low, but I just don't see the longwave trough in a position to allow anything further inland. I'd love to be wrong and maybe he is onto something, but I can't "buy" just yet for anyone west of the Carolinas, and probably not the mountains of NC either at this point. Plenty of time to change I guess and should be fun to see someone in the SE (even if it's the coastal areas) get a good snow!We are assuming that the PV is being modeled correctly as far as location. And 6 days out I don't trust it. A slight adjustment north Or NE or heck NW would allow for NW movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well, I hope that WxJordan (met in the SE forum) is right. He has been looking at the models and where the front has been showing on the GFS and EURO and wondering why a storm hasn't been showing until today. I appreciate his feedback in the other forum, but I don't know how he can see this coming further west than what the OP Euro at 12z shows. I guess you could make the argument of the 850 low in relation to the surface low, but I just don't see the longwave trough in a position to allow anything further inland. I'd love to be wrong and maybe he is onto something, but I can't "buy" just yet for anyone west of the Carolinas, and probably not the mountains of NC either at this point. Plenty of time to change I guess and should be fun to see someone in the SE (even if it's the coastal areas) get a good snow! If the Arctic boundary is modeled to far south I would say that would really help for folks North and West. At close to 6 days out that will surely change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Guys, the post by Moto in the SE thread is a very good one. He took the last three days of the Euro at 12z (500 mb) and compared them. WOW. What it shows makes me pretty excited (even if it doesn't make it back to us). The trend is real and the flow is FINALLY showing to back a bit. Take a look at the 120 hour 12 Euro map and look at the crazy flow (straight north to south) into Texas from Canada, which begins to buckle the flow and pop our low. I wonder if the trend can continue? It's generating a WSW flow, so at least we have the chance to trend into something.....even if only light. Will be interesting to follow, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 18z NAM is trying to be cute by stringing some precip across TN at hour 84. This isn't on the GFS and wasn't hinted at on previous NAM runs. It's probably nothing significant but couldn't help but notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The key for the Valley is where the boundary stalls out.The EPS showed it quite well yesterday and you can see it on the Euro at the end of the run.The 1040 HP coming in should kick it out into a cold front and not a warm front.You also have a system coming in from AR/LA/TX that could ride up it,this might be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z todays EPS still showing it...3-6" dump whole valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think the key is if this storm, if the Euro is even accurately portraying a threat, is does it phase? If it is a full phase it will move radically northwest on the models. If it is a partial, goes outside Hatteras IMO. With no blocking in the Atlantic, will move west even if the HP is correctly depicted in its position which it might not be. In other words, this potential is going to move around on the modeling. Could go OTS or west... But being in the bullseye now is not what I would want. Probably is exactly where I would want it in this time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2014THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIODIS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS ENSEMBLE BASEDSOLUTIONS MAINTAIN TWO AREAS OF BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS NEAR THE US-CANADA BORDER,WHILE THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE SINGLE, BUTBROADER AREAS OF BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS DO NOT ALIGNWELL WITH THE CORRESPONDING ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, SO THEY ARE LARGELYOMITTED FROM THE MANUAL BLEND. TODAY'S 00Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE GFSSUPERENSEMBLE COMPRISE MOST OF THE MANUAL BLEND AS THOSE TWO MODELS HAVE THEBEST PAST PERFORMANCE AND TWO OF THE HIGHEST ANALOG CORRELATION SCORES FORTODAY.THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREFAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS DUE TO RIDGING,ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW, AND ABOVE-NORMALSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. ABOVE-NORMALTEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN, CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, ANDWESTERN TEXAS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTAND NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, AND SOUTHWARD TO THELOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTERPORTIONS OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERNFLORIDA WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ABOVE-NORMAL SEA-SURFACETEMPERATURES NEAR FLORIDA.THE BROAD TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY FAVORABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THEPOTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY YIELDSINCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO OHIO. ADISPLACED STORM TRACK FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OFCALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, AND WESTERN TEXAS. SLIGHT RIDGING FAVORSBELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN FLORIDA.THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'SOPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLEMEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTEREDON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY11...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY10.FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TOGOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY UNCERTAINTYIN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND TENNESSEEVALLEY.FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I am just a lurker mostly here - not very weather savvy - although I have really learned a lot about models, etc. from reading here. Think it is more prudent to read than comment!!! Not many folks from MS here it appears but since this forum does include Mississippi, would someone please update every once in a while if there is any potential for wintry precip in Mississippi - specifically East Central MS close to MS State Univ. We are having a few snow flurries this afternoon on and off although it looks like the heavier flurries are off to my southwest. Really enjoy following this forum - am jealous of everyone's knowledge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I am just a lurker mostly here - not very weather savvy - although I have really learned a lot about models, etc. from reading here. Think it is more prudent to read than comment!!! Not many folks from MS here it appears but since this forum does include Mississippi, would someone please update every once in a while if there is any potential for wintry precip in Mississippi - specifically East Central MS close to MS State Univ. We are having a few snow flurries this afternoon on and off although it looks like the heavier flurries are off to my southwest. Really enjoy following this forum - am jealous of everyone's knowledge! Welcome,looking at the Euro your next chance is Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Wisher Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Thanks! Will be following the forum with much anticipation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Anyone with access to euro individuals want to fill us in about what they say about the storm for the Carolina's......? I wonder how many members show a tenn, or east tenn hit? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Anyone with access to euro individuals want to fill us in about what they say about the storm for the Carolina's......? I wonder how many members show a tenn, or east tenn hit? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'll try look over more cities later when I have more time and make a post but after eyeballing Knoxville and Nashville, they weren't as sexy as the previous 2 or 3 previous runs. Most had some measurable snow. Previously like 22 out of 50 had more than 2 inches, 12z only had about 14 showing 2+. Still some big dogs in there, but generally lower totals than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I still don't totally buy this Euro idea of a storm. Are any other models showing it? Again, if it phases it is coming waaaay west. If not, OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I just don't see this one working for us. The air will be extremely dry this way and the fact that the modeling has it so for east of us, while usually a decent sign, is not really what I would want to see given the set up. This isn't the cold we have seen in years past with models wanting to trending west. This is some intense arctic are with a very different set up than we usually see where a storm would trend n/w. This is just my opinion but I hope I am wrong! I'll take this over the usual ho hum winter pattern though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 If the flow can continue to back, a storm will be all but certain........the orientation of a due north/south flow from Canada into Texas is telling IMO. The jump today by the Euro made sense if you simply look at 500. I just don't know if it can back enough for east TN. Time will tell....... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 The physics of a tightly wound low will pull it northwest. That said, I do not see that type of phased system. Even if weak, I think it runs inside Hatteras. So many variables...just tough to know. The trend on the models has been west for two days in a row. The storm could just be model bias. However, the models have been attempting to build a storm during this time frame for quite some time. Time will tell. Man, hated being at work and not be able to participate. Great disco. Good to see the new members jumping in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I still don't totally buy this Euro idea of a storm. Are any other models showing it? Again, if it phases it is coming waaaay west. If not, OTS. Don't think there's any hope the mid-week storm trends far enough west..particularly for mid-TN. I'm personally more interested in the storm at the end of the run. That one could be a nail-biter depending on where the boundary sets up. Can there still be enough ridging to keep the boundary south of TN or will the flow relax too much and the boundary ends up in the Ohio Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm just a model watcher, a copier and paster of things. I don't have the weather chops that many of you guys have and I'm sure there are complexities involved with this system that I'm unable to grasp. But it seems to me that if the Euro had 3 or 4 heavy hitter runs for the mid south in a row, then shifted east for ONE run, what is to say it won't shift back to one of those previous solutions? I mean yeah this run is inside of 6 days now, but I don't see what is so magical about it. Seems to me we'd need to see several more runs in a row, and better model agreement, before forming any strong opinions. But again, that is just me, and I'm probably missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Don't think there's any hope the mid-week storm trends far enough west..particularly for mid-TN. I'm personally more interested in the storm at the end of the run. That one could be a nail-biter depending on where the boundary sets up. Can there still be enough ridging to keep the boundary south of TN or will the flow relax too much and the boundary ends up in the Ohio Valley? Good points. Threading the needle at all times this winter....if in doubt (this winter) the boundary when running west to east seems to really like Kentucky's latitude. Have to think we cash in at some point in the Valley though. I remember '94 being like this...cold and was tough to get it to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'm just a model watcher, a copier and paster of things. I don't have the weather chops that many of you guys have and I'm sure there are complexities involved with this system that I'm unable to grasp. But it seems to me that if the Euro had 3 or 4 heavy hitter runs for the mid south in a row, then shifted east for ONE run, what is to say it won't shift back to one of those previous solutions? I mean yeah this run is inside of 6 days now, but I don't see what is so magical about it. Seems to me we'd need to see several more runs in a row, and better model agreement, before forming any strong opinions. But again, that is just me, and I'm probably missing something. That is exactly right. So many variables. No way to know. The temptation is to really jump on one run. Have to see several. Right now the Euro is on its own. Hopefully it gets company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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