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Carvers Gap

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Todays AO dropped to -2.3.The PNA and EPO start to crash around the 27th,so we should be getting active for a possible storm.Matter of fact the EPS tonight has a slow moving system coming in from S/Alabama, 3-contour moving off the SC coast line around the 1st,right on que.This strong of a -AO SHOULD translate in some cold air for the valley roughly 10-14 days from now.Let's just hope,but i like the looks right now.

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The Canadian just drops doomsday cold into the Ohio Valley but for reasons I can't quite figure, it merely gets cold here and not frigid. It has 2m temps at -35 to -40c over Ohio but for some reason the cold doesn't move any further South. The temp is -30 degrees f just North of Cincy but probably 45-50 degrees warmer 75 miles South in Jackson Kentucky. It makes no sense because the high pressure bringing that supposed cold isn't terribly strong and it moves in a way from the upper midwest to the NE that should drive the cold down our way. 

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8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2014

THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.  THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN DISAGREES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE AVAILABLE
CYCLES.  THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS EXTEND AN AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS, BUT THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
TELECONNECTIONS ON A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC SUPPORT THE GFS/CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS, SO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPRISE
50 PERCENT OF THE MANUAL BLEND.  THE 00Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS INCLUDED AS
IT IS THE MODEL WITH THE BEST COMBINED ANALOG CORRELATION SCORE AND ANOMALY
CORRELATION DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS.

THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA DUE TO RIDGING AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO FAVORED OVER MOST OF
THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS THERE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO TRAVERSE THAT REGION.  BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND
A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND, BUT THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE STORM TRACK DURING WEEK-2 IS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS, FAVORING ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONTS
MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY FAVOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE REGIONS. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO THE RIDGING AROSS
THE WEST DISPLACING THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH.  A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD
BRING SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS TO THE FRONT RANGE, SO PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THERE ARE LOWERED.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND
THE MID-ATLANTIC.

FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS 

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From the Chicago WFO. Is this indicative of an -NAO setting up? Could it push the trough axis a bit further West and help these short waves enter the country further west, giving us the kind of clippers that actually produce snow for most of the area? Or will it set up too far West and leave us in the warm sector? I am excited there may be some change on the horizon, this cold and mostly dry isn't for the best.

 

 

 

TOWARDS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LVL RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE PATTERN TO BEGIN TO
MODERATE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC THAT STRETCHES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS
COULD PREVENT THE HUDSON BAY VORT FROM LIFTING NORTHEAST FOR VERY
LONG...AND COULD MAKE A RETURN.
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Last night's Euro weeklies back this up...according to them...cold stays in the MW through all four weeks....we get a brief respite in week 3 with the SER rearing its ugly head...but by mid February it is beaten back into submission. Perhaps at that point we can get a change in the Atlantic and a shot at something more.

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12z operational ggem and euro both show a decent system hitting the TN Valley the middle of next week.  Gulf low interacts with a northern piece.  The models keep dangling this idea out there but it's always a week away.

Best hope we've seen in sometime.And another system right on it's heels.

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Maybe so but with the PV near by we won't be tracking cutters

Don't get me wrong, I'd take my chances just to get out of this repetitive arctic cold with a skiff of snow in the air stuff we have been in.  Give me something juicy with cold air near by. I don't think we'd get a full fledge Miller A out of this pattern, but maybe a hybrid A/B with snow/ice to rain, then back to snow.

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Someday it'll happen. The GFS shows several inches, mostly in East Tennessee during the same timeframe.

 

The Canadian tries pull off a similar storm as well at that time but it's messier.

 

It's interesting, of the 51 Euro ensemble members from 0z:

 

All 51 show a dusting of snow or more by hour 240 for Knoxville

35 show 1 inch or more

17 show 2 inches or more

10 show 4 inches or more

3 show 6 inches or more

 

The deterministic shows 5.5 inches.

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The 500mb pattern suggests another northern stream shaftjob verbatim. As modeled the vort does not dig enough for us and turns the corner too late. Maybe that will change but the pattern suggests otherwise. I expect this to either disappear or be another snowstorm for coastal areas.

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The GFS has a 1015mb low in the Central Gulf, heading towards Central/South Florida. It and the Northern stream energy never phase but the Northern stream of course blows up a LP off the NJ coast and buries New England on the Friday before the Super Bowl.

 

The GGEM has the LP right along the coast from Houston to Jacksonville. It also doesn't quite hook up with the northern stream energy, but instead of a storm blowing up in New England everything marches off shore. 

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From the SE forum:

 

 

The potential setup upcoming actually has garnered a little more interest, including WPC.  

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 25 2014 - 12Z WED JAN 29 2014

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...MODEL/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT...SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THERE IS BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL
BREAKDOWN AND SLOW MIGRATION OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS ALOFT
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE COMING WEEK. THIS
WOULD MAINTAIN THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WRN US THIS SEASON. A DEEP AND VERY COLD MEAN TROUGH
WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH
MID-CONTINENT MID-LEVEL NNW FLOW TO THE LEE OF THE ANCHORING WRN
NOAM RIDGE CARRYING A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL CLIPPER WAVES THAT CUT
SWATHS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ALONG A LENGTHY STORM TRACK FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND OUT ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST.

A FRESHENING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED SAT ACROSS THE
N-CENTRAL US AND MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES IN CONJUCTURE WITH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT/LOWERERING HEIGHTS THAT WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLC/NEW ENG SUN...WITH AN ARCTIC SURGE
SPREADING SWD QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE.

YET ANOTHER WELL ORGANIZED CLIPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THIS FLOW
FROM CANADA INTO THE US SUN WITH A FRESH ARCTIC CANADIAN AIRMASS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT AND ANOTHER TRAILING ARCTIC BOUNDARY TO
SPREAD DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN US INTO MON.

WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVE
BEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE MODEL BLEND USING THE 06
UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET THIS WEEKEND CONSIDERING REDUCED
FORECAST SPREAD...AT LEAST ALOFT. PREFER TO TRANSITION TO A
SOLUTION LEANING HARD UPON THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC ECMWF EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AMID GROWING
FORECAST SPREAD. THESE GUIDANCE PIECES OFFER A BIT MORE PATTERN
AMPLITUDE OVERALL AND AT OFFER BETTER POSSIBILITY OF A DUG ENERGY
INTO THE BASE OF A THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AFFORDING SOME THREAT FOR
TRAILING FRONTAL LOW GENESIS/PCPN OUT FROM THE SRN/SERN US INTO
THE WRN ATLC THAT MAY PROVE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.


SCHICHTEL

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