tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 12z OP from DT. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Todays AO dropped to -2.3.The PNA and EPO start to crash around the 27th,so we should be getting active for a possible storm.Matter of fact the EPS tonight has a slow moving system coming in from S/Alabama, 3-contour moving off the SC coast line around the 1st,right on que.This strong of a -AO SHOULD translate in some cold air for the valley roughly 10-14 days from now.Let's just hope,but i like the looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Actually if you look at todays 12z GFS around 300,i can easily see this shift to the e,i'm more interested to see if the -AO goes even more - tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The Canadian just drops doomsday cold into the Ohio Valley but for reasons I can't quite figure, it merely gets cold here and not frigid. It has 2m temps at -35 to -40c over Ohio but for some reason the cold doesn't move any further South. The temp is -30 degrees f just North of Cincy but probably 45-50 degrees warmer 75 miles South in Jackson Kentucky. It makes no sense because the high pressure bringing that supposed cold isn't terribly strong and it moves in a way from the upper midwest to the NE that should drive the cold down our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Take it with a grain as you wish.The Euro has a closed contour low in N/texas day 10.The -ao during this time is much colder than what the models are showing,this will go into S/ALABAMA and lift NE,this will be a big strom for the SE Edit:it's gone today,no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 28 - FEB 03, 2014THE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIODIS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLEMEAN DISAGREES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE AVAILABLECYCLES. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS EXTEND AN AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSSMUCH OF THE CONUS, BUT THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATEABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS.TELECONNECTIONS ON A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC SUPPORT THE GFS/CANADIANSOLUTIONS, SO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPRISE50 PERCENT OF THE MANUAL BLEND. THE 00Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS INCLUDED ASIT IS THE MODEL WITH THE BEST COMBINED ANALOG CORRELATION SCORE AND ANOMALYCORRELATION DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS.THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREFAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA DUE TO RIDGING AND ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLYCOMPONENT TO THE MEAN FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO FAVORED OVER MOST OFTHE WESTERN CONUS, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITHSLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS THERE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOMELOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO TRAVERSE THAT REGION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREFAVORED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ANDA DEEP TROUGH CENTERED NEAR BAFFIN ISLAND, BUT THE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURESARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.THE STORM TRACK DURING WEEK-2 IS LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THECONUS, FAVORING ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONTSMOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY FAVOR ABOVE-MEDIANPRECIPITATION FOR THOSE REGIONS. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR MOSTOF THE SOUTHWEST, AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO THE RIDGING AROSSTHE WEST DISPLACING THE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULDBRING SOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWS TO THE FRONT RANGE, SO PROBABILITIESFOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION THERE ARE LOWERED.THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'SOPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLEMEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTEREDON DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY11...AND 20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUETO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND FORECAST TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY THEPRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES, TENNESSEE VALLEY, ANDTHE MID-ATLANTIC.FORECASTER: MATT ROSENCRANS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Man, unless something very different happens, these cold fronts coming across the Tennessee Valley are mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 From the Chicago WFO. Is this indicative of an -NAO setting up? Could it push the trough axis a bit further West and help these short waves enter the country further west, giving us the kind of clippers that actually produce snow for most of the area? Or will it set up too far West and leave us in the warm sector? I am excited there may be some change on the horizon, this cold and mostly dry isn't for the best. TOWARDS THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LVL RIDGEWILL BEGIN TO RELAX...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE PATTERN TO BEGIN TOMODERATE. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH AS ENSEMBLES AREINDICATING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THENORTH ATLANTIC THAT STRETCHES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THISCOULD PREVENT THE HUDSON BAY VORT FROM LIFTING NORTHEAST FOR VERYLONG...AND COULD MAKE A RETURN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Last night's Euro weeklies back this up...according to them...cold stays in the MW through all four weeks....we get a brief respite in week 3 with the SER rearing its ugly head...but by mid February it is beaten back into submission. Perhaps at that point we can get a change in the Atlantic and a shot at something more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z operational ggem and euro both show a decent system hitting the TN Valley the middle of next week. Gulf low interacts with a northern piece. The models keep dangling this idea out there but it's always a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z operational ggem and euro both show a decent system hitting the TN Valley the middle of next week. Gulf low interacts with a northern piece. The models keep dangling this idea out there but it's always a week away. Best hope we've seen in sometime.And another system right on it's heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The GFS has a day 9/10 fantasy job going too. I'd like to see one of these systems actually become a trackable threat rather than a unicorn that hovers in the day 8-12 range til it's spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Best hope we've seen in sometime.And another system right on it's heels. Models really are all over the place. Yesterday, the Euro had this system as a lakes cutter with a Chicago blizzard. I do think there will be something to track eventually (day 7+), but it very well could be rain without a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Models really are all over the place. Yesterday, the Euro had this system as a lakes cutter with a Chicago blizzard. I do think there will be something to track eventually (day 7+), but it very well could be rain without a -NAO Maybe so but with the PV near by we won't be tracking cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Maybe so but with the PV near by we won't be tracking cutters Don't get me wrong, I'd take my chances just to get out of this repetitive arctic cold with a skiff of snow in the air stuff we have been in. Give me something juicy with cold air near by. I don't think we'd get a full fledge Miller A out of this pattern, but maybe a hybrid A/B with snow/ice to rain, then back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Might not be many precip chances, but the 12z and 18z GFS was about as cold as you can get in January. This winter will definitely be remembered for January's cold. We actually have a decent chance to erase December's warm anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 0z Euro was a weenie run. Has a big winter storm hitting the TN Valley the 30th-31st. West TN to about Nashville 1-2 inches, there to Crossville 2 to 4, and eastward 4 to 6. Northern parts of MS, AL, and GA get in on the action as well as all of NC and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Someday it'll happen. The GFS shows several inches, mostly in East Tennessee during the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Positive nao and coastal areas from N.C to Maine are AOB in snowfall. I-95 is doing well too. Meanwhile us in the apps and upper south continue with well below normal temps above average precipitation and well below average snowfall. Hopefully the -pna coming up will help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 As of now, the GFS, GGEM and Euro all have a Gulf Low in the next Wednesday/Thursday time frame. I believe that if they occur, the precip field will be larger and the storm track probably a bit further north than the GFS/GGEM is currently advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Someday it'll happen. The GFS shows several inches, mostly in East Tennessee during the same timeframe. The Canadian tries pull off a similar storm as well at that time but it's messier. It's interesting, of the 51 Euro ensemble members from 0z: All 51 show a dusting of snow or more by hour 240 for Knoxville 35 show 1 inch or more 17 show 2 inches or more 10 show 4 inches or more 3 show 6 inches or more The deterministic shows 5.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The 500mb pattern suggests another northern stream shaftjob verbatim. As modeled the vort does not dig enough for us and turns the corner too late. Maybe that will change but the pattern suggests otherwise. I expect this to either disappear or be another snowstorm for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The GFS has a 1015mb low in the Central Gulf, heading towards Central/South Florida. It and the Northern stream energy never phase but the Northern stream of course blows up a LP off the NJ coast and buries New England on the Friday before the Super Bowl. The GGEM has the LP right along the coast from Houston to Jacksonville. It also doesn't quite hook up with the northern stream energy, but instead of a storm blowing up in New England everything marches off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This looks like it should be the beginning of something good, but it's just pffft this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 For anyone interested, of the 51 Euro ensembles on 0z for Nashville by hour 240: 43 show a dusting or more 16 show 1 inch or more 12 show 2 inches or more 6 show 4 inches or more 4 show 6 inches or more 1 shows 10 inches or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 For anyone interested, of the 51 Euro ensembles on 0z for Nashville by hour 240: 43 show a dusting or more 16 show 1 inch or more 12 show 2 inches or more 6 show 4 inches or more 4 show 6 inches or more 1 shows 10 inches or more Interesting, thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 One point in DTs morning FB thoughts. Seems pretty sure a split in the jet occurs. With so much cold around this is what we have all been waiting for. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hopefully we can get that to occur and they are actual Gulf Lows rather than Texas to Michigan storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 From the SE forum: The potential setup upcoming actually has garnered a little more interest, including WPC. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1100 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014VALID 12Z SAT JAN 25 2014 - 12Z WED JAN 29 2014...PATTERN OVERVIEW...MODEL/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT...SENSIBLEWEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THERE IS BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD SHOWING ONLY MINIMALBREAKDOWN AND SLOW MIGRATION OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS ALOFTALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA OVER THE COMING WEEK. THISWOULD MAINTAIN THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACEACROSS THE WRN US THIS SEASON. A DEEP AND VERY COLD MEAN TROUGHWILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...WITHMID-CONTINENT MID-LEVEL NNW FLOW TO THE LEE OF THE ANCHORING WRNNOAM RIDGE CARRYING A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL CLIPPER WAVES THAT CUTSWATHS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ALONG A LENGTHY STORM TRACK FROMTHE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND OUT ACROSS THEAPPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES/NORTHEAST.A FRESHENING OF THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED SAT ACROSS THEN-CENTRAL US AND MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES IN CONJUCTURE WITH UPPERLEVEL SUPPORT/LOWERERING HEIGHTS THAT WILL MIGRATE THROUGH THEAPPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLC/NEW ENG SUN...WITH AN ARCTIC SURGESPREADING SWD QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE.YET ANOTHER WELL ORGANIZED CLIPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THIS FLOWFROM CANADA INTO THE US SUN WITH A FRESH ARCTIC CANADIAN AIRMASSIN PLACE AHEAD OF IT AND ANOTHER TRAILING ARCTIC BOUNDARY TOSPREAD DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN US INTO MON.WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS HAVEBEEN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE MODEL BLEND USING THE 06UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET THIS WEEKEND CONSIDERING REDUCEDFORECAST SPREAD...AT LEAST ALOFT. PREFER TO TRANSITION TO ASOLUTION LEANING HARD UPON THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND TO ALESSER EXTENT THE 00 UTC ECMWF EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AMID GROWINGFORECAST SPREAD. THESE GUIDANCE PIECES OFFER A BIT MORE PATTERNAMPLITUDE OVERALL AND AT OFFER BETTER POSSIBILITY OF A DUG ENERGYINTO THE BASE OF A THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AFFORDING SOME THREAT FORTRAILING FRONTAL LOW GENESIS/PCPN OUT FROM THE SRN/SERN US INTOTHE WRN ATLC THAT MAY PROVE PRUDENT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z GFS better than previous runs for next week. Showing an active gulf, lots of moisture, and plenty of snow to go around through the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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