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Carvers Gap

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I'd love to see a synoptic snow event that actually pans out. I will take what I can get, but these nickel and dimers just aren't the same as seeing the big half dollar sized flakes pouring straight down. The GFS did have a fantasy storm around 300. It looks like the last 10 days of the month have lots of wintry potential as of now. It also looks like we have a good shot at finishing well below normal for January temp wise, to do that and not get a meaningful snow event has to be fairly rare.

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It's always out there on the horizon, high time it actually happens. If winter weather doesn't hit the mid state in the next month, climo and a host of factors begin working against us. Yes, tennessee can get the big late feb or early march snow but they are almost always gone in a day or 2. For real winter weather with big snow or snows and more than a day on the ground we need it to  happen in the next 3-4 weeks.In short time is growing near when we are going to have to see more happening than a 300+ hour big snow event. At present alot of Tennessee has even seen any measurable snowfall, especially west of nashville. maybe the rant will get something going, tired of wimpy Tennessee winters that we have had going on year 3. At least we did get some cold but cold without snow just isn't the same.

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GFS was more of the same. Slight warm ups, generally cold, snow showers possible through several periods. Nothing heavy. Something tries to get going deep in the Gulf in the 150+ timeframe but it just slides out to sea. Post truncation is cold, snow showery, finally warming up to rain at the end of the run. Of course any non-rain event is likely improperly modeled outside of 24 hours.

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Signs of cold weather coming back towards the end of the month.EPO is going into the big -.EPS is showing some single digits for lows with highs not getting out the teens late in the run.Until then it's looking like clipper action galore for the Valley,the next 7 days starting Friday.

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attachicon.gif4panel.png 1024×1024 .png

 

Signs of cold weather coming back towards the end of the month.EPO is going into the big -.EPS is showing some single digits for lows with highs not getting out the teens late in the run.Until then it's looking like clipper action galore for the Valley,the next 7 days starting Friday.

Interestingly, not seeing any super cold on the SV version of the 0Z ECMWF Ens run...and the ridge relaxes at the end of the period tho I don't htink it is for very long. I am not sold on Jan 7 cold redux in our neck of the woods...in the last 30 years we generally only get one major arctic dump followed and/or preceded by lesser blasts. '88 and 84 are the only examples I can find where the single digits return after a couple of week refrain.....

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Both regular and hi res nam really liking the idea of a trowel with the Friday system that would bring decent snow to the northern half of tennesee.

It has been interesting to watch the models overplay the moisture on every system that is associated with cold air this winter. I would think the plateau and NE corner of TN should get something this time though.

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It has been interesting to watch the models overplay the moisture on every system that is associated with cold air this winter. I would think the plateau and NE corner of TN should get something this time though.

The Canadian has been particularly bad for doing this. If it verified at 50 percent here we'd have had 3 big storms at least.

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Ridging REALLY begins to build out west late in the modeling on the EURO at 12z. Check out the ridge bridge at 240. That's a 424 mb above normal anomaly in an almost ideal location to deliver cold!

We also see a trough east of Hawaii, which should kick that closed disturbance in the southwest out......but even if it doesn't, that's a feature that can spit out weaker disturbances that would provide overrunning opportunities every couple of days.

I am becoming VERY bullish on a sustained period of winter we haven't seen for several years for a large chunk of the SE. I just hope we can finally reel it in!

rytyvusa.jpg

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Ridging REALLY begins to build out west late in the modeling on the EURO at 12z. Check out the ridge bridge at 240. That's a 424 mb above normal anomaly in an almost ideal location to deliver cold!

We also see a trough east of Hawaii, which should kick that closed disturbance in the southwest out......but even if it doesn't, that's a feature that can spit out weaker disturbances that would provide overrunning opportunities every couple of days.

I am becoming VERY bullish on a sustained period of winter we haven't seen for several years for a large chunk of the SE. I just hope we can finally reel it in!

 

 

Good post Nut, I like the way you talk.

 

I'm also very interested in what happens after this clipper pattern wraps up.  This is like the 3rd or 4th day in a row the GFS and it's ensemble members have shown interesting possibilities around or after truncation.  I know it always seems like the good stuff is 10 days away but taking into account climo it really seems like we are on the verge of some of very good potential at the end of the month.

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WeatherTree, I assume this is what OHX is referencing. The trough shifts east and the pattern change will be the NW flow, clipper after clipper shots coming to an end. This is 8 days out.

 

gfs_z510.jpg

 

But 5 days later, this is the 500mb map.

 

gfs_z511.jpg

 

Then we see this in place.

 

gfs_z512.jpg

Which leads to the following.

 

gfs_t210.png

While the GFS hasn't been doing well with individual storms, it's been pretty good sniffing out these cold patterns and it looks downright frigid towards late January as you see above. Similar to the first of the month Arctic outbreak. Once again, this is the GFS and past 300, but it showed -0 temps in the 300+ range that verified earlier this month. 

 

Lets just hope that at some point, there's some moisture to meet this air mass. Right now, it's pretty scarce.

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