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Carvers Gap

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Euro 12z the system not much difference,the system up N looks better organized.Ridge out W looks taller.Jut shows though what a slight shift here and there can really cut the QPFS.Don't see much difference in 2m,850 slightly cooler.Still looks like lt.sn showers and flakes,E still looks like a 1-2"

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THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
TROUGH SWINGS DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH A 500 MB COLD POOL NEAR -35 DEG C.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY FROM NW TO SE...AND SOME
SLEET OR SNOW WILL BE MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY. INTO TUESDAY EVENING...THE COLD TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD...
PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT ACCUMULATION
IS LIKELY FOR THE FAVORED HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU. IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT HIGH SPOTS FROM JAMESTOWN TO MONTEREY
COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COMBINED
NORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LAPSE RATE AND LOCALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NO MAJOR WX EVENTS ARE
SEEN. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WITH
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR...BUT NO MAJOR ARCTIC BLASTS.

 
 
Nashville disco
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Euro esm is showing a warm up around the 22-25,there should be a warm up around this time.There should be a trough setting up from the B-Sea right the same time..I'm seeing the PV at h360 on the esm dropping the 850's to -20- to -25 just N of Ky.I think this will end up more SW than what this is showing and colder because the ridge to the W is to far inland.Models have the bias of this.

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Euro esm is showing a warm up around the 22-25,there should be a warm up around this time.There should be a trough setting up from the B-Sea right the same time..I'm seeing the PV at h360 on the esm dropping the 850's to -20- to -25 just N of Ky.I think this will end up more SW than what this is showing and colder because the ridge to the W is to far inland.Models have the bias of this.

thats the control, not the mean.
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Does it make a difference?You look at the mean and it's even colder at 240?

Edit:I'm not saying 360 is right either,just my thoughts

the control is basically a lower resolution version of the op. The mean is all 51 ensemble members including the control. When you look at the ensembles and think " thats not very cold" thats a very strong signal for a mean at 2 weeks. Also, that 5oomb Pacific is great, especially the way hooks up with the one in eastern Europe over the pole.
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the control is basically a lower resolution version of the op. The mean is all 51 ensemble members including the control. When you look at the ensembles and think " thats not very cold" thats a very strong signal for a mean at 2 weeks. Also, that 5oomb Pacific is great, especially the way hooks up with the one in eastern Europe over the pole.

Not sure what you are getting at.I understand all this.Though i disagree with you about the Pac.We in the mid valley and even E of us get screwed when the pac goes to far E.It's the same for us when the NAO bombs - to much we don't get nothing here

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Not sure what you are getting at.I understand all this.Though i disagree with you about the Pac.We in the mid valley and even E of us get screwed when the pac goes to far E.It's the same for us when the NAO bombs - to much we don't get nothing here

after day ten the ensembles retrograde the ridge to just off the west coast and punch the ridge up over Alaska hooking up with the ridge over Eurasia. This is shown on the gefs now too. Next week the ridge is too far east for us.

Using an ensemble mean compared to one op or control run will is a better tool. Past day five op runs even the Euro have low skill.

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after day ten the ensembles retrograde the ridge to just off the west coast and punch the ridge up over Alaska hooking up with the ridge over Eurasia. This is shown on the gefs now too. Next week the ridge is too far east for us.

Using an ensemble mean compared to one op or control run will is a better tool. Past day five op runs even the Euro have low skill.

No you are wrong here and if i could post a pic i'd show it

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No its aacupro

 

So AccuPro maps are different from what Franklin posted?

 

 

Euro ensembles still very bullish on winter. The gfs ensembles have folded to the Euro ensembles. This is about the fourth run in a row of retrograding the ridge, this would be a good cold pattern. Only lacking the nao.

eps_z500a_nh_61-1.png

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No what it is Accu uses the esem's members and not the mean.Doesnt mean it's wrong but you'd rather use the mean.

 

 

Well regardless, it looks like both Euro and GFS ensembles are showing good things today.  The Wednesday event looks more and more "meh" but the long range is encouraging.  Maybe we can thread the needle at some point.

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