Stovepipe Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Not sure what happened to the GFS.But it's just lost outside 72 hrs. Very odd run to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro 12z the system not much difference,the system up N looks better organized.Ridge out W looks taller.Jut shows though what a slight shift here and there can really cut the QPFS.Don't see much difference in 2m,850 slightly cooler.Still looks like lt.sn showers and flakes,E still looks like a 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The long range isn't looking great at all once we pass next Wednesday's system. Very dry and generally normal temps with above normal bearing down on the region in the CPC 8-14 day outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Though Bastardi did tweet this a bit ago. The GFS has been flopping around a lot apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2014 Author Share Posted January 11, 2014 This afternoon's model runs are significantly colder than yesterday's IMO. Good trends. Does everyone remember how much the models flip-flopped a few weeks ago w/ the record cold that just left. Looks like a signal of more cold barreling south. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXTTROUGH SWINGS DOWN INTO THE REGION. THIS POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILLBRING STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH A 500 MB COLD POOL NEAR -35 DEG C.SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY FROM NW TO SE...AND SOMESLEET OR SNOW WILL BE MIXED IN WITH THE SHOWERS BY THE END OF THEDAY. INTO TUESDAY EVENING...THE COLD TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD...PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. SOME MINORACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID STATE...BUT ACCUMULATIONIS LIKELY FOR THE FAVORED HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU. IT ISNOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT HIGH SPOTS FROM JAMESTOWN TO MONTEREYCOULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COMBINEDNORTHWEST FLOW...STEEP LAPSE RATE AND LOCALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT.THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...NO MAJOR WX EVENTS ARESEEN. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WITHREINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR...BUT NO MAJOR ARCTIC BLASTS. Nashville disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The NAM digs the 500mb vort a bit further south and west than the GFS. But it's the NAM at 78-84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The NAM digs the 500mb vort a bit further south and west than the GFS. But it's the NAM at 78-84hrs. Just seen that,that would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Euro esm iis showing a dusting and maybe .5 towards the E it's 1-2".The temp's in the 500's are at -25-30,that should support snow,maybe some issues at the 2m's,But you should cut those numbers,hopefully it digs more.John,the Euro esm is eerie close to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 The long range isn't looking great at all once we pass next Wednesday's system. Very dry and generally normal temps with above normal bearing down on the region in the CPC 8-14 day outlook.they must not be looking at the euro ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 they must not be looking at the euro ensembles! I'm telling you.You should expect a brief warm up with the heights rising by the Philippines,but i love the hints afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Euro esm is showing a warm up around the 22-25,there should be a warm up around this time.There should be a trough setting up from the B-Sea right the same time..I'm seeing the PV at h360 on the esm dropping the 850's to -20- to -25 just N of Ky.I think this will end up more SW than what this is showing and colder because the ridge to the W is to far inland.Models have the bias of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Euro esm is showing a warm up around the 22-25,there should be a warm up around this time.There should be a trough setting up from the B-Sea right the same time..I'm seeing the PV at h360 on the esm dropping the 850's to -20- to -25 just N of Ky.I think this will end up more SW than what this is showing and colder because the ridge to the W is to far inland.Models have the bias of this.thats the control, not the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 thats the control, not the mean. Does it make a difference?You look at the mean and it's even colder at 240? Edit:I'm not saying 360 is right either,just my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Does it make a difference?You look at the mean and it's even colder at 240? Edit:I'm not saying 360 is right either,just my thoughts the control is basically a lower resolution version of the op. The mean is all 51 ensemble members including the control. When you look at the ensembles and think " thats not very cold" thats a very strong signal for a mean at 2 weeks. Also, that 5oomb Pacific is great, especially the way hooks up with the one in eastern Europe over the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 the control is basically a lower resolution version of the op. The mean is all 51 ensemble members including the control. When you look at the ensembles and think " thats not very cold" thats a very strong signal for a mean at 2 weeks. Also, that 5oomb Pacific is great, especially the way hooks up with the one in eastern Europe over the pole. Not sure what you are getting at.I understand all this.Though i disagree with you about the Pac.We in the mid valley and even E of us get screwed when the pac goes to far E.It's the same for us when the NAO bombs - to much we don't get nothing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 NAM is still light FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Not sure what you are getting at.I understand all this.Though i disagree with you about the Pac.We in the mid valley and even E of us get screwed when the pac goes to far E.It's the same for us when the NAO bombs - to much we don't get nothing hereafter day ten the ensembles retrograde the ridge to just off the west coast and punch the ridge up over Alaska hooking up with the ridge over Eurasia. This is shown on the gefs now too. Next week the ridge is too far east for us.Using an ensemble mean compared to one op or control run will is a better tool. Past day five op runs even the Euro have low skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 after day ten the ensembles retrograde the ridge to just off the west coast and punch the ridge up over Alaska hooking up with the ridge over Eurasia. This is shown on the gefs now too. Next week the ridge is too far east for us. Using an ensemble mean compared to one op or control run will is a better tool. Past day five op runs even the Euro have low skill. No you are wrong here and if i could post a pic i'd show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 No you are wrong here and if i could post a pic i'd show it Jax, what data service are you using for your Euro if you don't mind me asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Jax, what data service are you using for your Euro if you don't mind me asking? promaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 No you are wrong here and if i could post a pic i'd show itokay, go ahead. I posted the Euro ensemble mean at day 15 in the southeast thread. Go check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 promaps Google has never heard of it. I'm just curious because between the 5 or 6 most active posters here we have subscriptions to most of the services. I'd just like to see the maps you are looking at to get context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Google has never heard of it. I'm just curious because between the 5 or 6 most active posters here we have subscriptions to most of the services. I'd just like to see the maps you are looking at to get context. No its aacupro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 okay, go ahead. I posted the Euro ensemble mean at day 15 in the southeast thread. Go check it out. You got me,i see what you are talking about .You use weather bell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 No its aacupro So AccuPro maps are different from what Franklin posted? Euro ensembles still very bullish on winter. The gfs ensembles have folded to the Euro ensembles. This is about the fourth run in a row of retrograding the ridge, this would be a good cold pattern. Only lacking the nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 So AccuPro maps are different from what Franklin posted? No what it is Accu uses the esem's members and not the mean.Doesnt mean it's wrong but you'd rather use the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 No what it is Accu uses the esem's members and not the mean.Doesnt mean it's wrong but you'd rather use the mean. Well regardless, it looks like both Euro and GFS ensembles are showing good things today. The Wednesday event looks more and more "meh" but the long range is encouraging. Maybe we can thread the needle at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Well regardless, it looks like both Euro and GFS ensembles are showing good things today. The Wednesday event looks more and more "meh" but the long range is encouraging. Maybe we can thread the needle at some point. Oh well,the esembles are looking cold still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 So AccuPro maps are different from what Franklin posted? Still looks good though either way,should be a trough coming in around this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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