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Larry Cosgrove is also bullish, leaning on the Euro ensembles. I took a look at the mean ensemble and don't see a big reason to be bullish as the trough axis is a bit too far east for my liking. I'd rather see that ridge on the west coast anchor itself instead of gradually pushing east.

Time will tell, meanwhile, back at the ranch, we have a light snow opportunity coming at us that is under the 136 hour time frame.

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Euro 0z output for KTRI - for the little event next Wednesday. Of course without more detailed information, I can't tell how much of the .25 falls as snow. Same for TYS, except it looks the surface is an issue there until the very end.

TRI

WED 18Z 15-JAN 0.0 -6.4 1018 85 99 0.25 541 526

THU 00Z 16-JAN -3.3 -9.1 1021 86 83 0.14 538 522

TYS

WED 12Z 15-JAN 0.5 -4.9 1017 99 100 0.17 542 528

WED 18Z 15-JAN 0.7 -7.2 1020 88 98 0.17 538 522

THU 00Z 16-JAN -2.3 -10.1 1022 78 48 0.05 537 520

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Euro 0z output for KTRI - for the little event next Wednesday. Of course without more detailed information, I can't tell how much of the .25 falls as snow. Same for TYS, except it looks the surface is an issue there until the very end.

TRI

WED 18Z 15-JAN 0.0 -6.4 1018 85 99 0.25 541 526

THU 00Z 16-JAN -3.3 -9.1 1021 86 83 0.14 538 522

TYS

WED 12Z 15-JAN 0.5 -4.9 1017 99 100 0.17 542 528

WED 18Z 15-JAN 0.7 -7.2 1020 88 98 0.17 538 522

THU 00Z 16-JAN -2.3 -10.1 1022 78 48 0.05 537 520

 

Each of the last three GFS runs (including 12z today) have ratcheted up the snow for east TN for this event.  12z shows 1-3 with TRI in the sweet spot of 4.  Smells like a dusting to me but we'll see.

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GFS got a little wetter anyways and colder.BNA disco this morn. said the Nashville could get .5 to 2",i'm sure that was based on the Euro and the 2" would be the Cumberland and .5 Nashville.Hopefully we keep seeing trends our way for a change.You guys in the E might get surprised especially the orographic areas like always

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We either need the pac ridge to retrograde further west or we need some blocking over Greenland. Its just not gonna happen otherwise. Without one or the other, it will be rinse/repeat with coldfronts, northwest flow, and then cool rain as the cold air departs and the gulf opens up.

 

If the ridge retrogrades just a bit and the core of the cold startsdumping into OK and AR, and stalls out, we can do pretty well (at least those of us east of the plateau.

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That (PNA) is the biggest concern in my eyes Jmundie.......I have noticed the trend on the ensembles is to be progressive with any PAC ridging that does form. (Looks great for a brief period and then kind of craps the bed). If it doesn't remain in place most of our state would be cool/cold and dry in a northwest flow before warming again.

I have been hoping to see signs of a stable ridge (goodness knows it keeps wanting to develop out that way, thanks to the SSTs in the North Pacific), but it appears the progressive nature of things is still hurting any BIG potential. Still no signs of significant blocking in the Atlantic.

I am not discounting the day 5-6 threat at all, and I hope we can score from that, but the overall look on the ensembles through 240 is just kind of "bleh" to me........

At this point, I'd probably disagree with JB and DT in saying Feb will be rocking in the SE. Still plenty of time, but I am not optimistic we don't stay progressive with very little, if any help from the dismal Atlantic.

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One way to slow down the progression, albeit briefly, would be to have a strong vorticity diving into the base of the trough, from the northern plains to the western gulf.

Obviously this far out any vorts would not be readily seen. But it wouldn't take much to give us a period of amplification and a slowed progression at the base of that trough. JMO

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What a difference two days makes in NWP! Day 10 Euro drops this bomb which essentially ends winter by Day 11-12. No, I don't really believe it but it is funny how models swing.

Jeff,

Thanks for your input. I really enjoy reading your brief blurbs in our subforum. I was thinking...

Even if we take that map verbatim, Is it really all that bad or just more of the same ...... meaning a progressive flow? (warm for a couple, cool for a couple, cold for a couple- rinse and repeat )

I can certainly see the terrible Atlantic (its been as consistent as the Alaskan vortex from the last two years), but the ridging would likely reassert itself if there is such a deep low (as projected) in the Aleutians. Canada doesn't look nearly as cold, but everything I see on that map (even if in jest) screams a continued progressive pattern.

The question is......do we EVER slow it down a bit with any blocking in the Atlantic?? And when I say ever; I mean before Feb 15th or so....? lol

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Jeff,

Thanks for your input. I really enjoy reading your brief blurbs in our subforum. I was thinking...

Even if we take that map verbatim, Is it really all that bad or just more of the same ...... meaning a progressive flow? (warm for a couple, cool for a couple, cold for a couple- rinse and repeat )

I can certainly see the terrible Atlantic (its been as consistent as the Alaskan vortex from the last two years), but the ridging would likely reassert itself if there is such a deep low (as projected) in the Aleutians. Canada doesn't look nearly as cold, but everything I see on that map (even if in jest) screams a continued progressive pattern.

The question is......do we EVER slow it down a bit with any blocking in the Atlantic?? And when I say ever; I mean before Feb 15th or so....? lol

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I'll be interested in hearing what the 12z Euro ensembles have to say....

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It's a very different weather pattern than the last two years but I'm still having to do the same thing to get snow, rely on upslope/clippers. At one time Clippers were golden for the Eastern half of Tennessee for 2-4 inches. Now they don't usually do very much outside of elevated terrain. 

 

I last year I ended up with 13 inches of snow, 2 from synoptic snow when points East and South did a little better and got 3-5. Then 9 from Clippers and upslope. Then 2 more from synoptic snow in spring when it turned cold. Biggest snow was 4.5 inches from a Clipper on Super Bowl weekend.

 

Hopefully this clipper/upslope pattern we're going to be in at times over the next 10 days can produce some more widespread accumulations. I know that even Chattanooga got an inch from the Super Bowl weekend system last year.

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From JKL.

 

 

 

IN DEALING WITH THE GENERAL LONGWAVE PATTERN...IT SEEMS THAT BY
WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE EURO AND GFS AGREES ON A BROAD TROUGH SETTING
UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS THE OHIO VALLEY SET UP IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW AND NUMEROUS WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA IN A CLIPPER
TYPE UP. WHILE THIS IS SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGING...PIN POINTING THE
ARRIVAL TIME OF EACH SYSTEM INTO THE AREA AND MESOSCALE EFFECTS IS
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT. DO AT THIS POINT SEE THAT THE
MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT WILL BE THE THREAT OF NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TAP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE INDICES SUPPORT THIS
THINKING OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THE PNA
WITH A JUMP TO A +1 VALUE BY MID JANUARY...WHICH INDICATES A STRONG
TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
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Even though it's 4-5 days away, most of the regional forecast offices are feeling pretty good about this event bringing snow to most of the area. From the Tennessee river areas of West TN, NE Miss, N.Ala and points East and North, all are mentioning snow, and BNA, MRX and JKL are all mentioning accumulations are possible. So this is looking like a good chance that it's going to be a southern and western tracking clipper vs one that mainly effects N.KY/Ohio and maybe clips SE KY and NETN

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Even though it's 4-5 days away, most of the regional forecast offices are feeling pretty good about this event bringing snow to most of the area. From the Tennessee river areas of West TN, NE Miss, N.Ala and points East and North, all are mentioning snow, and BNA, MRX and JKL are all mentioning accumulations are possible. So this is looking like a good chance that it's going to be a southern and western tracking clipper vs one that mainly effects N.KY/Ohio and maybe clips SE KY and NETN

The Euro and it's esm are quite different with the thermals

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The Euro and it's esm are quite different with the thermals

 

Can you elaborate please?

 

Seems like pretty decent agreement among the three main models with regards to the setup (I've not seen the Euro ensembles).  Thickness, 850 temps, and track look good.  With the marginal surface temps it may come down to the time of day this hits as to where and how much the accumulations are, outside of elevated areas of course.  Also looks like there is potential for multiple vorts to come rolling through over a 2 or 3 day time period.

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Can you elaborate please?

 

Seems like pretty decent agreement among the three main models with regards to the setup (I've not seen the Euro ensembles).  Thickness, 850 temps, and track look good.  With the marginal surface temps it may come down to the time of day this hits as to where and how much the accumulations are, outside of elevated areas of course.  Also looks like there is potential for multiple vorts to come rolling through over a 2 or 3 day time period.

850 are +8 over the valley on the esm the Euro is -4 almost, the 2m's are warmer as well, i'm looking at  h 102

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850 are +8 over the valley on the esm the Euro is -4 almost the 2m's are warmer as well, i'm looking at  h 102

 

Thanks for the details bud.

 

It's notable that the 18z GFS's long range is looking better compared to what it's been showing the past several days.  Seems like there could be a number of snow chances for the TN Valley in January.  Nothing to sink our teeth into this far out but the improved look is welcome.

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Thanks for the details bud.

 

It's notable that the 18z GFS's long range is looking better compared to what it's been showing the past several days.  Seems like there could be a number of snow chances for the TN Valley in January.  Nothing to sink our teeth into this far out but the improved look is welcome.

I can live with that,we can't get snow with a torch.I saw this as well about the 18z

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