John1122 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 We'll see if we can get any luck, but in 10 days we're forecast to have a mildly negative NAO, AO, and a mildly positive PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6, 2014 Author Share Posted January 6, 2014 We'll see if we can get any luck, but in 10 days we're forecast to have a mildly negative NAO, AO, and a mildly positive PNA. The NAO is doing what it has done for the past year, finally. It went negative and couldn't recover. It kept being forecast to go positive and stayed negative. I think we are back w/ that pattern. Looking at the CPC ensembles, the PNA is forecast to go strongly positive. If those were the only indices I looked at, I would say cold in the East as the norm. Looks a the pattern relaxes for 5-10 days and reloads. Unfortunately, the pattern is cold and then warm-up/rain. Hopefully, one of these GOM systems will fall out of sync w/ that. The Euro showed a bit of an ice signature for Thursday. Over all, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Cold/warm/rain is a long time tradition here, but with the cold air in decently frequent supply, hopefully we get lucky. The long range looks pretty cold for now. I can't much complain anyway, I've had 5.5 inches of snow since Thursday plus record cold temps. Sadly the heavier snow was very localized. I'd love to see 25 and everyone with 3-4 inches of snow than 5 degrees and one area with 6 inches of snow, one area with a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Weeklies look pretty decent.Looking at the B-Strait there should be a storm coming through around the 18-20 and the weeklies are showing the vortex headed S,almost -20 to the KY/TN line.Not sure if it's a cutter or east coast runner but this will be our next storm to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 the 6z GFS ensemble mean shows a nice pattern showing around mid month and shortly after. If real and we can lock it in for a week or so.......... with a southern stream we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 New Euro weeklies have a more favorable pattern in the east in weeks 3 and 4....the pesky SER butts in for Week 1 and 2 then is gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Looks like the CPC ensembles show a similar signal. PNA is forecast to go strongly positive. The AO is forecast to go strongly negative. Alone, those two indices indicated a strong cold pattern in the East. The NAO is neutral and forecast to go weakly positive...but taking its time. We'll see if it stays there. All in all, the ensembles would suggest what Mr. Bob shared with the weeklies - which have been very good. By mid-February we may all be ready for spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Two beautiful gulf low tracks back to back through hour 144 on the GFS. Of course there's no cold air, but I like to see those rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Two beautiful gulf low tracks back to back through hour 144 on the GFS. Of course there's no cold air, but I like to see those rolling through. Agreed...and yeah, it would have been nice to have something like that this week. It looks like we go NW flow for a while after the warm up. Hopefully, if the ridge out west is tall enough, we can get lucky with a strong, digging vort. You guys would do better on the other side of the hills than my area, but it might be starting to get time to be on the lookout for this type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 12z Euro has an apps runner next Wednesday. The 850 temps look good but surface is marginal. Verbatim the plateau and mountains get two inches or so. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 The MJO has been in the circle of death for awhile now. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Two beautiful gulf low tracks back to back through hour 144 on the GFS. Of course there's no cold air, but I like to see those rolling through. If we had the NAO cooperating with us we would probably already have 20 inches or so. The southern stream has been loaded this year. This winter would of looked more like 09-10 if we had the Atlantic on our side. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 the Euro at 240 has a similar look to what we have just been through. Extremely cold air in Canada, coming south, western ridging off the coast and a not so good Atlantic. Maybe if it happens, we score with great timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 David Aldrich is given to overhype, but he's talking a potential good snow event the middle of next week. In the meanwhile, another precip filled weekend. If we can ever get the cold to stay for a weekend, we're in business. It's going to precipitate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 David Aldrich is given to overhype, but he's talking a potential good snow event the middle of next week. In the meanwhile, another precip filled weekend. If we can ever get the cold to stay for a weekend, we're in business. It's going to precipitate. Yeah, looking like a solid 2 inches of rain on both the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Yeah, looking like a solid 2 inches of rain on both the GFS and Euro. The Eastern parts of the Valley would get sn by the Euro,looks like a couple inches at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Yeah, looking like a solid 2 inches of rain on both the GFS and Euro. The Eastern parts of the Valley would get sn by the Euro,looks like a couple inches at least I was referring to the weekend rainstorm, you must be talking about next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 8, 2014 Author Share Posted January 8, 2014 David Aldrich is given to overhype, but he's talking a potential good snow event the middle of next week. In the meanwhile, another precip filled weekend. If we can ever get the cold to stay for a weekend, we're in business. It's going to precipitate. 168-192 on the 12z Euro look interesting and the GFS sees it as well. Pretty marginal. Bet it goes to Indianapolis anyway. If it is there again tomorrow at this time, keep an eye on it. This is the time frame the Euro has a tendency to spot storms. Gut says no...but I've seen crazier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 168-192 on the 12z Euro look interesting and the GFS sees it as well. Pretty marginal. Bet it goes to Indianapolis anyway. If it is there again tomorrow at this time, keep an eye on it. This is the time frame the Euro has a tendency to spot storms. Gut says no...but I've seen crazier.have faith, this might be the year of the I-95 runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Take a look at this map. It's from the Euro control today. It's not a current map, its for day 15. Look familiar.........? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 More interesting run from the 0z GFS tonight right before truncation. Although this run didn't pop a storm it was very close and cold enough. Just more negative tilt and boom! Maybe this is the storm we have been waiting for. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Western ridging is almost ideal on the 240 euro ens. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Western ridging is almost ideal on the 240 euro ens. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk lets hope it stays there and does not move east like it has done the last two years only to help Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 0z Euro has a diminished version of the next Wednesday storm it had showed previously. Precip is lighter and surface temps more marginal. Still interesting though. Edit: 0z Canadian also shows potential for this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The maps I see are pretty bad as far as the 12z euro goes. 24 hour panels suck. With that said, at hr 144 you have a 1006 low in the northern 1/2 of Alabama that strengthens to a 983 low in NH with cold air charging in to it somewhere along the way. Doesn't look like it would be a prolific snow producer, but if it started out in southern AL and deepened from there...........who knows?? Anyone have access to better Euro maps for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The maps I see are pretty bad as far as the 12z euro goes. 24 hour panels suck. With that said, at hr 144 you have a 1006 low in the northern 1/2 of Alabama that strengthens to a 983 low in NH with cold air charging in to it somewhere along the way. Doesn't look like it would be a prolific snow producer, but if it started out in southern AL and deepened from there...........who knows?? Anyone have access to better Euro maps for this?it goes east of the apps but is really moisture starved for us. It is a phase so the timing im sure will change. Something to watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Great looking ridging at 216 on the Euro with energy in the south. Time will tell, but even if this pushed east................with great timing we could score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 The 12z Euro at hour 240 would be a significant snow storm for all of TN and north MS. The GFS has been toying around with a similar idea for several runs now as well. The period around the 17th - 20th has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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