Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 We need something to in the southern stream. Both storms we are following are northern stream pieces of energy. This is why we do best in Nino years. Which is one of the reasons I think a full latitude trough over North America is unlikely to that extent. December was so wet here in the TN Valley. Seems like that big of an intrusion of arctic air(that far south) would intersect w/ the wet pattern we are in...I think today's solution, while much more reasonable due to lack of blocking, is going to be just one of several solutions. A lakes cutter is probably most realistic, but what happens immediately after that is where I am interested. If a return flow from the southwest overruns that low level cold air, I am thinking ice and snow for points west of the Apps...could be Memphis or Nashville, could trap cold in the eastern valley. I just don't think it stays dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 How do the EURO ensembles look? Do they support the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Which is one of the reasons I think a full latitude trough over North America is unlikely to that extent. December was so wet here in the TN Valley. Seems like that big of an intrusion of arctic air(that far south) would intersect w/ the wet pattern we are in...I think today's solution, while much more reasonable due to lack of blocking, is going to be just one of several solutions. A lakes cutter is probably most realistic, but what happens immediately after that is where I am interested. If a return flow from the southwest overruns that low level cold air, I am thinking ice and snow for points west of the Apps...could be Memphis or Nashville, could trap cold in the eastern valley. I just don't think it stays dry. I don't disagree with you here. I don't really know if we should be rooting for a big phased lakes cutter or a much more benign system (ala the GFS). On one hand, lakes cutters with cold air behind them can help with a -NAO (even if temporary), but it also would likely zap the atmosphere for a period following following such a deep storm. Perhaps Mr. Bob or Jeff can weigh in on what each scenario could possibly yield in the 1-5 days following. It does appear on the GFS ensembles to be consistent with laying down an arctic boundry with precip in the gulf on the individual members. In fact 8 of 11 individual members have the "look" of an overrunning setup by hour 156. I don't have the Euro ensembles yet, but hope to within the next 15-30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 12z Euro ensembles are really cold on Friday, but just as amazing as the cold shot is..............is the speed at which it retreats. By hour 120, it appears the ensembles are further south and east from the operational, with low pressure development in southern Arkansas/northern LA, compared to western Arkansas on the OP (at least that is good) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hard to read with access to 24 hour panels, but the track would appear to be through Central/West TN vs. western KY/southern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ensembles are a little southeast of the op but not much. hard to tell with 24 hour panels but the ukie might be a hit for Nashville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ensembles are a little southeast of the op but not much. hard to tell with 24 hour panels but the ukie might be a hit for Nashville. I actually thought the ensembles look quite a bit further south initially and the track from there could put some of west TN in a decent spot. Still a long way out so not like it matters either way.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 While the 84z NAM is really not meant to be used as the gospel, it does depict the evolving western pattern? Anyone willing to extrapolate where it potentially leads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Look like the euro ensembles keep the 850s pretty low through the run. Toward the end 216-240 there is some moderation in them, but nothing torchy and I don't see much evidence of a SE ridge.Kind of makes you wonder why we couldn't score at some point without a big SE ridge to interfere with things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Is there a free site to view the Euro Ens? Also, thanks for those with access giving us updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm glad the Euro anyways don't make such drastic changes in 12 hrs.The GFS on the 0z had the ridge in the W inland and now its trying to flatten it out off shore,i won't mention the Canadian but either way it's trying to do the same as the GFS to that ridge.The Euro tries to rebuild it some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The euro and gfs are worlds apart. Euro has a storm that cuts and the gfs has a suppressed low in the gulf.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 Next Weds per the 18zGFS, a fairly large disturbance scoots across the northern GOM . Might be something to watch when thinking about the trend this winter on the models. Cold HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 The euro and gfs are worlds apart. Euro has a storm that cuts and the gfs has a suppressed low in the gulf.... FWIW @ I think the cutters are almost identical. It is after that where the GFS then sends a fair amount of energy across the Gulf. Very much something to watch. If it doesn't disappear, looks like an overrunning event is possible per that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The euro and gfs are worlds apart. Euro has a storm that cuts and the gfs has a suppressed low in the gulf.... FWIW @ I think the cutters are almost identical. It is after that where the GFS then sends a fair amount of energy across the Gulf. Very much something to watch. If it doesn't disappear, looks like an overrunning event is possible per that scenario. The 12 Z ensembles indicated this, fairly strongly I might point out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2013 Author Share Posted December 31, 2013 The 12 Z ensembles indicated this, fairly strongly I might point out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I have seen very few ice storms west of the Apps, but if there were ever a set-up for one hr 183 would be close. Quite a bit of energy with cold HP embedded over the Great Lakes. Other than being suppressed which has rarely, if ever, occurred this winter...that set-up is great for overrunning winter wx for the upper south in terms of HP placement and angle of the jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro esm in case some wonder still look to be 4-6" based on a 10:1 ratio,less in the S/Valley,east i'm sure is slightly more.I looked at my text on the Euro and seen the 2m's drop 10C in 6 hrs.,so the ratio should be higher than 10:1.Also we still have the clipper still being shown after this event for around a 1" token bonus a few hours later.I agree with what everyone here said also,we want this to drop SE more for us in the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro esm in case some wonder still look to be 4-6" based on a 10:1 ratio,less in the S/Valley,east i'm sure is slightly more.I looked at my text on the Euro and seen the 2m's drop 10C in 6 hrs.,so the ratio should be higher than 10:1.Also we still have the clipper still being shown after this event for around a 1" token bonus a few hours later.I agree with what everyone here said also,we want this to drop SE more for us in the Valley. Where are you located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Where are you located Brentwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Brentwood So euro ensembles showed 4-6 for your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So euro ensembles showed 4-6 for your area? I gave the dimensions? Edit:I'm not sure what you are trying to say,but yes my area at this time would be 4-6 not counting the clipper or ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Believe the symbolics of the mojo need to be reevaluated some what.We are right now in ph 6 which makes no since what so ever,we more than likely should be influenced by a SER right now with above heights up and down the eastern parts of the mainland.I'm not sure why this should this should be used in any forecasting method like some people use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Issued Tue 16:51Z Dec 31 2013 day cyc/mdl blend confidence comments D3 00/ecm 030% Average 00/ece 070% Average D4 00/ecm 060% Average 00/ece 030% Average 00/gfs 010% Average D5 00/ecm 030% Average 00/ece 070% Average D6 00/ecm 030% Average 00/ece 070% Average D7 00/ecm 030% Average 00/ece 070% Average Alot of weight stilll going towards the e/esm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Euro esm in case some wonder still look to be 4-6" based on a 10:1 ratio,less in the S/Valley,east i'm sure is slightly more.I looked at my text on the Euro and seen the 2m's drop 10C in 6 hrs.,so the ratio should be higher than 10:1.Also we still have the clipper still being shown after this event for around a 1" token bonus a few hours later.I agree with what everyone here said also,we want this to drop SE more for us in the Valley. This probably is more banter than anything else, but I'd rather post this here to get more looking at it. I am not sure, but I think I have been giving bad information as it relates to the Euro. The text data appears to give accumulating snow, but the portrayal at the surface doesn't match Jax.......... I hope someone will help me with a simple question. When looking at the text data below from the 12z Euro I have a question. MON 06Z 06-JAN -3.2 -8.0 1011 81 31 0.49 543 535 The surface and 850s are solidly below freezing and it's spitting out .49 qpf. My guess is that it's a snapshot of precip for 6z and the previous 6 hours and those are the temps EXACTLY at 6z, meaning not all of the .49 falls as snow, since the previous "snapshot" had WAY above freezing temps at the surface and 850. Without in between data, I guess it's impossible to tell how much of the .49 falls as rain vs. snow, but the snow maps only have an inch or so over the state. I can't see the control run snow map Jax, so if someone has it, feel free to PM it to me............lol. It seems this is a really simple question, so I am sorry for the "basic" question, but thanks in advance for any answers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This probably is more banter than anything else, but I'd rather post this here to get more looking at it. I am not sure, but I think I have been giving bad information as it relates to the Euro. The text data appears to give accumulating snow, but the portrayal at the surface doesn't match Jax.......... I hope someone will help me with a simple question. When looking at the text data below from the 12z Euro I have a question. MON 06Z 06-JAN -3.2 -8.0 1011 81 31 0.49 543 535 The surface and 850s are solidly below freezing and it's spitting out .49 qpf. My guess is that it's a snapshot of precip for 6z and the previous 6 hours and those are the temps EXACTLY at 6z, meaning not all of the .49 falls as snow, since the previous "snapshot" had WAY above freezing temps at the surface and 850. Without in between data, I guess it's impossible to tell how much of the .49 falls as rain vs. snow, but the snow maps only have an inch or so over the state. I can't see the control run snow map Jax, so if someone has it, feel free to PM it to me............lol. It seems this is a really simple question, so I am sorry for the "basic" question, but thanks in advance for any answers. You are correct in that it's precip that's fallen the prior 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Thanks John. With the ensembles of the euro leaning further south and east with the system next week and such a cold air mass coming behind it, you have to wonder what the trend will be for this system. Some mets aren't sold on a west of the apps system....... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looking at the 0z NAM coming in, I am noticing the precip field that was progged to go west to east through Chicago and the lower great lakes is now considerably further south. What does this have to do with our late weekend/early next week storm..............maybe nothing, but it is still correcting further south and east with time. makes you think, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Looking at the 0z NAM coming in, I am noticing the precip field that was progged to go west to east through Chicago and the lower great lakes is now considerably further south. What does this have to do with our late weekend/early next week storm..............maybe nothing, but it is still correcting further south and east with time. makes you think, doesn't it? I know it's the NAM outside of 48 hrs, but the 18z as well caught my attention in that it is further south with its features late in the run out west. Interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This run is much more moist, but warmer too. Little snow in TN if this is right, pretty impressive qpf in northern middle TN. Time of day isn't helping. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 You are correct in that it's precip that's fallen the prior 6 hours. Right,those numbers can be thrown,Best way to look is if you have it on the Euro is based on snow:water,this matches up well.It's what i use anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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