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Carvers Gap

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MRX is apparently ignoring the Euro completely with their forecast package. JKL said they usually would count completely on the Euro but decided to blend with the GFS because the Euro solution is so extreme. 

 

The forecast difference is still vast between the neighboring offices. In Jellico, Kentucky the high for next Monday is predicted to be 26 degrees with snow. 10 feet away in Jellico, Tennessee the high is predicted to be 46 degrees with rain.

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Didn't see anyone post the ridiculous clown map of the Euro...this is what it looks like @162 :snowing:

Thanks for sharing Burger. We have been all over the threat, talking a lot via pm, but first we have to see if this little Jan 2nd system can surprise a few in the TN Valley. Thanks for taking the time to post in our subforum, hope you guys can get in on wintry action soon!

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Didn't see anyone post the ridiculous clown map of the Euro...this is what it looks like @162 

 

I'll echo others, thanks for posting that, Burger.  Folks in middle and west Tennessee should be pretty excited about the 12z run of the Euro.  However, things have been so fluid in the model world...I think there will be several solutions before it hones in on one.  Seems like the western two thirds of the state have been where the models want to go w/ winter wx.  Hope somebody cashes in.  I may try to set the alarm and watch tonight's Euro.

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I'll echo others, thanks for posting that, Burger. Folks in middle and west Tennessee should be pretty excited about the 12z run of the Euro. However, things have been so fluid in the model world...I think there will be several solutions before it hones in on one. Seems like the western two thirds of the state have been where the models want to go w/ winter wx. Hope somebody cashes in. I may try to set the alarm and watch tonight's Euro.

you could not be more night and day with the gfs and euro for 168 hours.
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While we wait for the 0z runs to roll in Robert posted a lengthy and in depth on WxSouth in the public section. It is free, all you have to do is sign in or sign up. He basically talks about two different directions the pattern could go into January. The 1st one would be a repeat of a November like pattern and the 2nd would be more like what today's Euro showed with the huge eastern trough and a prolonged western/Alaskan ridging with the AO/NAO going negative. Well worth the effort to sign up for if you haven't already.

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HUGE differences between the Euro and GFS toward day 6/7. The Euro at 12z brought the cold and the 0z GFS keeps it mostly northwest, even though it does bleed into TN through 180 and beyond. The biggest difference though is the lack of a storm blowing up on the arctic front.  It would be nice for the Euro to kick the GFS's butt this time.  I am ready for Dr. NO to become Dr. Yes.  At some point, it's skill has to win out, right?

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml

If you look at the 500 anoms.i'd buy into the cold coming east what the Euro is showing,extreme as the Euro,i doubt it

Yeah, the Euro accomplishes placing the vortex in Illinois by having a storm blow up that equates to a Cat 1 hurricane that yanks all the cold air in on top of all the snowcover it lays down.  Highly unlikely, but I just want it cold enough to snow. 

 

I am not buying the GFS showing just light precip with the cold air coming past 144.  I can certainly see the threat that others can see around that time frame being bigger than modeled on the 0z GFS.

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Yeah, the Euro accomplishes placing the vortex in Illinois by having a storm blow up that equates to a Cat 1 hurricane that yanks all the cold air in on top of all the snowcover it lays down.  Highly unlikely, but I just want it cold enough to snow. 

 

I am not buying the GFS showing just light precip with the cold air coming past 144.  I can certainly see the threat that others can see around that time frame being bigger than modeled on the 0z GFS.

Warm water of the NE coast though per Robert, right. Might not be cat 1...but could be a big storm. Actually, would like to see it it pop the NAO negative.

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The Euro is amazing for you guys.  The whole state does pretty well (though Chattanooga gets only ~2") and the northwestern part of the state gets a foot.  The Euro has been pretty consistent about it, too, so I think there's something to it.  It's a very potent storm that bombs out to 984 mb over north-central North Carolina, screaming northward.

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The Euro is amazing for you guys.  The whole state does pretty well (though Chattanooga gets only ~2") and the northwestern part of the state gets a foot.  The Euro has been pretty consistent about it, too, so I think there's something to it.  It's a very potent storm that bombs out to 984 mb over north-central North Carolina, screaming northward.

snow totals for knox area? dont have access to wxbell

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I took a quick glance at the Canadian and it is also advertising the vodka cold scenario that the Euro has shown. It gets the PV all the way down to the Wisconsin/Great Lakes region! But it doesn't stick around long as shoots northeast but by 240 there is another significant trough on its heels with a lot of precip coming out of the gulf.

Hour 168:

ma3e8ezu.jpg

Hour 180:

yga7yzeb.jpg

Hour 240:

u4esymar.jpg

January could be a memorable one if all the cards play right.

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MRX acknowledges the Euro but disregards it in favor of the GFS. They are kinda going for it on the Thursday system though. Still forecasting a fairly long period of rain but says even advisory criteria will be possible in the valley.

 

 

 

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...OROGRAPHIC NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWS
WILL BE PRODUCING FAIRLY DECENT SNOWFALLS OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPES. ALSO...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SNOWS EVEN ACROSS THE VALLEY. WARNING
CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SUCH AS HIGH KNOB. ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLATEAU...CENTRAL VALLEY...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...
VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND CHEROKEE/CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH
CAROLINA. WILL INCLUDE IN THE HWO.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST WITH RIDGING OVER
THE AREA WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE GREATLY. THE ECMWF
SHOWS VERY STRONG CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES PRODUCING HEAVY SNOWS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS
SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AND WILL TREND
TOWARD THE GFS.
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JKL, generally a fan of the Euro, seeing things as "Concerning" due to the Euro's consistency.

 

 

 

MODELS REALLY DIVERGE BEYOND FRIDAY AND CONFIDENCE TANKS. THE ECMWF
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A GOOD SNOW STORM SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK LIKE WE HAVE NOT SEEN HERE IN
20 YEARS OR MORE. HOWEVER...THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
FORECASTING JUST A LITTLE SNOW ON SUNDAY WHILE KEEPING THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC COLD OVER THE PLAINS. WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION IS MORE
LOGICAL AND CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL SHOWN
BY FOUR CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF IS NOTEWORTHY AND CONCERNING.
AS SUCH...HAVE GIVEN THE 31/00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF MORE WEIGHT THAN
USUAL IN THE MODEL BLEND USED TO POPULATE THE FORECAST. THIS RESULTS
IN A SOLID CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SUNDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE...THEN DECREASING SNOW CHANCES FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS WELL
BELOW NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A
/SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF EXTREMELY COLD ARCTIC AIR/ IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL.
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