December and January Pattern Discussion

[lugnuts]

I could be wrong but it looks like the GFS is trying to set up a negatively tilted trough for the end of next week..If this keeps showing up on future runs then the system should get stronger..Maybe a nice gift for some folks..But as always who knows what the models will show the next day.. 

[jaxjagman]

I could be wrong but it looks like the GFS is trying to set up a negatively tilted trough for the end of next week..If this keeps showing up on future runs then the system should get stronger..Maybe a nice gift for some folks..But as always who knows what the models will show the next day.. 

Its catching onto the Euro,there shouldnt be a trough during the 2nd

[John1122]

Looks like the GFS just craps on the entire East on the LR. But Seattle/Portland looks snowy. Huge western trough and rain into UP of Michigan and Southern Canada with likely record highs in the East. Amazing how much the models can waffle in such short periods of time.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like the GFS just craps on the entire East on the LR. But Seattle/Portland looks snowy. Huge western trough and rain into UP of Michigan and Southern Canada with likely record highs in the East. Amazing how much the models can waffle in such short periods of time.

The CPC ensembles are tough to beat...they have really led the way. Dr. No, the Euro, surely lived up to its nickname. I wouldn't rule out a storm, but at this point the GFS has had a tough go of it. On to the Euro and maybe mid-January. Trough out west and southeast ridge in full force.

Edit: If someone has ensembles, please post a description or pic.

[jaxjagman]

The CPC ensembles are tough to beat...they have really led the way. Dr. No, the Euro, surely lived up to its nickname. I wouldn't rule out a storm, but at this point the GFS has had a tough go of it. On to the Euro and maybe mid-January. Trough out west and southeast ridge in full force.

Edit: If someone has ensembles, please post a description or pic.

The scorecard i read of the Euro is 90% d5-7,the gfs is not even close.I'll look later to see if i can find it

 

 

Edit:I seen it just recently i think you can find it on the HPC site somewhere,if i find it i'll post it.But if you do please post for everyone else

[burgertime]

Euro gives you guys in TN a nice little light snow next week around the 3rd. Keep an eye on this system. 

[Carvers Gap]

Euro gives you guys in TN a nice little light snow next week around the 3rd. Keep an eye on this system.

Saw it. Burger, tnweathernut has been banging the drum on that system. And yes, the Euro shows a winter storm for portions of the eastern seaboard. With no blocking place, should move north and west. Thanks for swinging by.

[tnweathernut]

Just got a chance to check the 0z Euro control run ...............and it spits out 3+ inches of snow around hour 144-156 for areas around Crossville and points east (including Chattanooga, Knoxville, Tri).    It actually keeps 3+ inches on the ground until around 244, and then keeps at least some snow cover on the ground from 244-360.

 

In fact, much of the state receives 1-2 inches west of Crossville too, except for the extreme southwest part of the state around Memphis.

[jaxjagman]

Just got a chance to check the 0z Euro control run ...............and it spits out 3+ inches of snow around hour 144-156 for areas around Crossville and points east (including Chattanooga, Knoxville, Tri).    It actually keeps 3+ inches on the ground until around 244, and then keeps at least some snow cover on the ground from 244-360.

 

In fact, much of the state receives 1-2 inches west of Crossville too, except for the extreme southwest part of the state around Memphis.

The Euro esm explodes when that clipper dives bomb into the system coming up from the S

[tnweathernut]

It's a pretty good look at 500. Ideally I'd like to see the trough axis a bit further west and deeper to get more on our forum into significant snows.....not impossible, but we still need to make sure the storm threat is legit first.

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[Clarksville Snowman]

We are getting into the timeframe where we need the models to trend in our direction.They appear to maybe be slowly coming around, today and tommorow are going to be very interesting. Time to unleash the snowhounds!!

[jaxjagman]

Storm on The Euro 12z the vort isnt as stout,we don't get the the plunge of cold air,luckily this is still days away and it's still being shown

 

Edit:On the 2nd

[Carvers Gap]

@120 with zero blocking in place the Euro has kind of a slider/Miller B. I can't see the increments inside of 24 hrs but one would guess a warm nose in the eastern valley. Very complicated set-up. Probably still not modeled correctly @120. Very warm days 8-10.

[jaxjagman]

Thought the Euro on todays 12z had a interesting look towards the end of the run on the 7th,looks as it will bring a front in around the 8th for the valley with some cold air then another reinforcing shot right after,looking at the vort it would be close to a big winter storm

[tnweathernut]

_{Just hoping we can score a widespread winter event before it looks like we will have to reshuffle the pattern at some point around the 10th},

[jaxjagman]

_{Just hoping we can score a widespread winter event before it looks like we will have to reshuffle the pattern at some point around the 10th},

I was looking at the CPC awhile ago and they keep the state of Tn.,below avg. temps through the 11.This would align well with what the weeklies show

[tnweathernut]

Yeah, I am not really sweating the LR GFS at this point. Euro looks good through 240, just REALLY wanted the event on the 2nd to be legit for our area. Not ready to give up on it, but sure looks like the models are starting to hone in on a setup today which leaves our area out of the fun.

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[jaxjagman]

Yeah, I am not really sweating the LR GFS at this point. Euro looks good through 240, just REALLY wanted the event on the 2nd to be legit for our area. Not ready to give up on it, but sure looks like the models are starting to hone in on a setup today which leaves our area out of the fun.

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We'll get sn.,i believe from this system,how much is gonna depend how deep the vort digs,didn't like the N shift today

[jaxjagman]

Impressive cold w to the E of the valley at the 850's..-25 sweeping across some parts.Like the looks of the EPS

Edit:this would be around the 6 of Jan

[jaxjagman]

Keep watching a progression of the ridge off the Cali coast towards the E

This is what we want in the Valley to keep warm air out W and colder air to filter into the E and into the Valley into the 2nd week of Jan

[tnweathernut]

So how many days until the GFS comes back around and puts the trough in the east instead of the west in the long range........ala the euro eps and ensembles?

It actually looks like there is a pretty good signal for a significant storm around January 5th-6th. Ensembles are actually pretty bullish this far out, and the Euro control is a full blown Miller A, though a bit too far west for a direct hit to east TN.

If we mostly miss the storm on the 2nd, perhaps a better one comes behind it..........just my quick thoughts this evening.

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[weatherlover]

Per GaWx in the southeastern thread, the 18z GFS ensembles bring the trough back into the east after a brief warmup the 7th-9th.  So it now joins the Euro ensembles in bringing the trough back into the east after a brief reprieve.

[jaxjagman]

Per GaWx in the southeastern thread, the 18z GFS ensembles bring the trough back into the east after a brief warmup the 7th-9th.  So it now joins the Euro ensembles in bringing the trough back into the east after a brief reprieve.

The euro esm don't show what hes saying,in matter of fact its down right cold all the way to Orlando the 8

[jaxjagman]

Per GaWx in the southeastern thread, the 18z GFS ensembles bring the trough back into the east after a brief warmup the 7th-9th.  So it now joins the Euro ensembles in bringing the trough back into the east after a brief reprieve.

Also when the HPC gives the GFS 0% credit like it did yesterday,you should stop looking at the GFS..JMHO

[jaxjagman]

Also you can see a pattern change coming up,you can look at the Pac. and see this to what extreme i have no clue.But before the 10th,not likely

[tnweathernut]

Two things I will be interested in seeng on 0z modeling....

1. Trajectory and strength of the piece of energy diving into the sharpening trough for the 2nd

2. The 500 setup for a possible event on the 6th.

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[jaxjagman]

Two things I will be interested in seeng on 0z modeling....

1. Trajectory and strength of the piece of energy diving into the sharpening trough for the 2nd

2. The 500 setup for a possible event on the 6th.

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Yup,thats how i see it.Should be two troughs coming in around this time around the 5th,timing is going to be key.Either way the 2nd trough is gonna pull some of the coldest air of the season so far the way it looks in the Valley

[tnweathernut]

One thing I noticed is that the euro briefly takes the west based NAO moderately negative around the 5th. It's on its own in that regard and isn't really backed by its own ensembles so it likely won't be right, but on the outside chance it scores a coup........perhaps it could provide us a little help.

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[franklin NCwx]

Cmc ensembles shown an eastern trough and have been while the gfs plays its games.

[jaxjagman]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_12_2013/post-3027-0-51587700-1388180560.png

Like the two storms i posted up above by the Bearing Sea,say a day or two ago it should translate into two troughs coming through the Valley around the 5 and 7 of Jan,the first should bring in colder air the 2nd could be a knock out