December and January Pattern Discussion

[Carvers Gap]

Don't bypass the possibilities for the Jan 2/3 system Carvers. The suppressed look of the 12z GFS matches the euro ensembles nicely and without a -NAO it will likely come further north, as this weekends system will. Time will tell, but I think it's a true threat.

Once past 6/7 days, you might as well roll the dice...........

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Oh yeah, I agree. I am merely commenting on the fact that the cold and duration of it were probably handled poorly by the models for the eastern half of the country in regards to early Jan. I think the storm threats are still there....but the cold air "appears" to be between storms. That said, @TRI we have had snow every time it has gone below normal.

[Carvers Gap]

If anyone can describe or post the 12z ensembles, that would be helpful. Now, another error the models could be making is they seem to really struggle with truly Arctic air. And that is what is coming, but it appears westward in nature. I do not think winter is over by any means...with this much cold air in NA, at some point the dots will connect. Interestingly, the water over the eastern equatorial Pacific has cooled. Cool water there has almost never been good for SE winters.

Edit. The surface temps in the eastern Pacific are cool off S. America. Just below the surface 50-100 meters down, warm water is present. It won't have an impact now, but might drive a Nino event later next year IMO.

[tnweathernut]

If anyone can describe or post the 12z ensembles, that would be helpful. Now, another error the models could be making is they seem to really struggle with truly Arctic air. And that is what is coming, but it appears westward in nature. I do not think winter is over by any means...with this much cold air in NA, at some point the dots will connect. Interestingly, the water over the eastern equatorial Pacific has cooled. Cool water there has almost never been good for SE winters.

Edit. The surface temps in the eastern Pacific are cool off S. America. Just below the surface 50-100 meters down, warm water is present. It won't have an impact now, but might drive a Nino event later next year IMO.

I am trying to see a significant difference, maybe along the immediate coast it's cooler, but looks warmer in other areas to me.  What does everyone else think?

 

Current SST's

 

SST's on 10/31/13

[tnweathernut]

The 144 hour 12z Euro looks fairly nice.  Low pressure organizing just south of Louisiana, with a 1041 high in Wisconsin moving south and east.

[Carvers Gap]

I am trying to see a significant difference, maybe along the immediate coast it's cooler, but looks warmer in other areas to me.  What does everyone else think?

 

Between 80 and 140 west at the equator there is minor cooling. I'll see if I can dig up a graph. Now, you can see the PDO "flip" in the northern Pacific pretty well.

[tnweathernut]

Squash central with the Euro at hour 168. 

[BullCityWx]

Squash central with the Euro at hour 168. 

 

Which is right where just about all concerned want it at this range. I'm encouraged.

[Carvers Gap]

I am trying to see a significant difference, maybe along the immediate coast it's cooler, but looks warmer in other areas to me.  What does everyone else think?

 

 

I have no idea how to attach the animated SSTs.  So, I am providing a link.  The water has cooled markedly compared to a month ago.  Seasonal?  I don't know.  Now, here is the question that you should have asked....What are the anomalies?  Interestingly, after looking at the anomalies...you could make a case that those are increasing in localized spots.  In all cases, I am referring to the Nino regions in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Links:

 

SSTs

 

Full ENSO Discussion Dec 23

 

Sub-surface and surface discussion images:

 

 

[tnweathernut]

Which is right where just about all concerned want it at this range. I'm encouraged.

I agree, I am encouraged by both the GFS and Euro at this point.  BOTH show potential with the details to be worked out later.  If we get the precip, I feel a LOT better about where temps will be....

[franklin NCwx]

There is a lot of amped gfs members for next week!

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro....NAO looks pretty positive for the entire run.  The PNA ridge out west is still there.  That is good.  We'll have to ride that until the Atlantic changes.  The Euro gave a slight hint of a -NAO late in the run, but 240 is hardly deterministic.   Nothing in terms of storms present...But like QueenCity and TnWx stated, suppressed is better given no blocking in place.  BNA also mentioned that the models may not "see" an event until its 3-4 days from it.  May be the case. 

[Carvers Gap]

From the world of Twitter, Allan Huffman...

 

[BNAwx]

Kinda surprised there aren't more ensemble members projecting a -NAO after the first of the year.  From what I've seen/heard, there's a decent correlation between the AO and NAO phase.  It's not perfect by any means, but I still think you'd see some ensemble support for a -NAO. 

[jaxjagman]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI DECEMBER 27 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 02 - 06 2014

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA,
DOMINATING MOST OF THE CONUS, WHILE A RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC STRETCHING NORTHWARD TO NORTH OF ALASKA. RECENT DETERMINISTIC GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE FEATURES.

THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD OVER
MOST OF THE CONUS, BUT MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS SPREAD INDICATES LARGE UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT IS ABLE TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THE PNA
INDEX WHICH HAS RECENTLY BEEN CLOSE TO ZERO IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAKLY
POSITIVE OR NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH HAS RECENTLY BEEN
WEAKLY POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO ZERO BY DAY 7, BE WEAKLY POSITIVE BY
DAY 10, AND REMAIN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAY'S BLEND CHART
INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, ALASKA,
THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE, AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OFFSET BY AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW COVER FAVOR NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WESTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA
AND THE ALEUTIANS.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG PARTS OF
THE GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE SOUTHEAST. A
GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING EVOLUTION
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF, OR
THROUGH THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA TILTS THE ODDS TO
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, WHILE ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 10 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 

 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS. 

[tnweathernut]

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD

300 PM EST FRI DECEMBER 27 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 02 - 06 2014

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,

LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG PARTS OF

THE GULF COAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND THE SOUTHEAST. A

GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING EVOLUTION

OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 

 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE

TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE PRECIPITATION

TOOLS. 

Looks like the guys at CPC can see a much more juiced up system as a possibility.  Glad to see my optimism for this period has merit. 

[jaxjagman]

[BNAwx]

Baby steps...

 

Still not impressed yet

[Reb]

I'd take this solution! next few runs will be interesting of course.

 

 

[Reb]

EPS is starting to look sweet

any more info? pics and such as

[jaxjagman]

any more info? pics and such as

The first storm on the 2nd is way less surpresed and just skims the valley,i'd be will to bet that one gets even less and continues

[Lindsaywx]

What is the eps

[jaxjagman]

The 2nd one on the 5th looks to bring a cold front in bringing in colder air,almost a trip phaser,looking sweet 

[jaxjagman]

What is the eps

Euro esm

[jaxjagman]

Not quite there yet though,some thermal issue,but it's even showing now even though it's long range another storm now on the 7th

[jaxjagman]

None the less though it's a vast improvement from the 0Z,real wet run all the way through.Definite signs of the -PNA look late in the run,no sign of the SER peeping in though

[Reb]

GEFS looking better than 18z through 144

[jaxjagman]

GEFS looking better than 18z through 144

I'm starting to wonder if the GFS was right after all and does bring in a big storm on the 2nd

 

Edit:It's close to a phase now on this storm,just not there yet

[John1122]

The GFS is generally being ignored as of now by most forecast offices.

[jaxjagman]

We're getting alot of help from the Pac being as active as it is from storms off the sea of Japan that heads towards the Bering Sea.Like the pic i posted up above it makes since that two troughs set up in the mainland the 5 and 7,we just need cold right now

[jaxjagman]

Hopefully something changes because looking at the upper levels it's not very impressive as looking at the reflective map,ways off anyways