tnweathernut Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 System for the 2nd is still there, still showing as light, but cold enough for a wintry event. We will see if continues to hold and also if any trends develop as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Talking about the weekend system, right?correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 System for the 2nd is still there, still showing as light, but cold enough for a wintry event. We will see if continues to hold and also if any trends develop as we get closer.gfs is shearing out the energy in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Ridge goes to crap around day ten trough in the west and go figure a perfect gulf low track..... with no cold air in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I wouldn't worry about the day 10 pattern with the models having a really hard time. I'd take the two opportunities on Dec 30th and Jan 2nd, run with it, and be happy that the one on the 2nd will likely be a bigger deal than modeled. It's the best window of opportunity we have had so far this winter. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Ridge goes to crap around day ten trough in the west and go figure a perfect gulf low track..... with no cold air in sight I wouldn't worry about the day 10 pattern with the models having a really hard time. I'd take the two opportunities on Dec 30th and Jan 2nd, run with it, and be happy that the one on the 2nd will likely be a bigger deal than modeled. It's the best window of opportunity we have had so far this winter. JMO I just hope that these storms don't go south and east of my area. But no matter what I will be rooting for snow for anybody in the tennessee valley, we all deserve a good winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 I wouldn't worry about the day 10 pattern with the models having a really hard time. I'd take the two opportunities on Dec 30th and Jan 2nd, run with it, and be happy that the one on the 2nd will likely be a bigger deal than modeled. It's the best window of opportunity we have had so far this winter. JMO I agree...can't be picky at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Interesting light snow event shown on the 12z GFS for the 30th across much of the state of TN. This feature was more robust on modeling several days ago and then was taken away largely for several runs. This is the first run in a while that juiced it back up. Keep an eye on this, could be a nice little light surprise. Under 100 hours, not to mention what looks even better coming behind it. We was talking about this the other day.. Canadian now likes the idea http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2013 Author Share Posted December 26, 2013 If that PNA ridge actually happens...sometimes the models have at tendency to try to break down that feature too fast. Keep an eye on that. This wintery set-up has always been about a ten day window. As we get closer to the ten day window, it is actually possible to see the end of the "pattern" that produces winter weather. Like tnweathernut said, looks like two events to watch. Not huge, but you take what the pattern gives you. All of the CPC indices hint at the trough heading back into the central portion of the country. So far though, in the long range, it looks like the trough is more shallow versus being repositioned and maybe a tad bit west of where it originally modeled it. That could change in a heartbeat, to the north or south. All in all, not a bad pattern for the upper south. The further south you go, the tougher it is going to get. But isn't that how it always is? edit: The Euro might have been on to something at 0z. Let's see if it holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Much better Edit:Well,not much but some what better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Euro does appear to moderate temps again ahead of the Day 9-10 system, which is not too shocking. We have been experiencing brief warm-ups between strong cold fronts, probably due to +NAO. Let your heart not be troubled; that may change to at least neutral if not -NAO in the 11-15 day. Keep the +PNA and add a -NAO and then we'd be able to hold cold air in place ahead of a system. Truly cold weather patterns take weeks to develop and typically max out at the end of the pattern. We've been somewhat cold for nearly 8 weeks now. December actually will average slightly mild but Novie was cold. Normally 6-8 weeks is it, but this time one could reset the weekly count with that warm burst and severe before Christmas. A week before the "reset," and after 3-4 weeks of cold from Novie, remember the ice in Kentucky and West Tenn. Give it 3-4 weeks again. I think the Mid South has a decent chance of winter precipitation by mid-January. I know climo is my friend, lol! Still when the jet stream is far enough south, per the historical thread, it really can snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Artic front,probably get to see some flurries during the day on the 30 for all the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Sunday night into monday appears to have potential for a 1 inch to possibly 2 inch snow maybe. Of course it may disappear but something to watch. Across portions of Tn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Storm for the first of the year looks like it's gonna have problems with the ridge in the Pac per euro and eps and get held back in the SW.But actually this could benefit the valley because it's looks colder the time of arrival.Also on the 1st and 2nd a couple clippers should clip parts of the Valley,if this is right Edit:After looking again,the Euro is weaker during the 5th system compared to the EPS,The EPS would be snow and the Euro cold chasing rain,thats still days away so anything is on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2013 Share Posted December 26, 2013 Also the EPS 12z once again flipped to a colder pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Interesting observation 8 of 11 individual members from the 18z GFS put accumulating snow somewhere in the state of TN by 168 (most light, but a few are more robust) Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Today the ao is about neutral and continues its downward trend. It is forecasted to go moderately negative by all global ensembles and stay there till the end of the ensemble runs. The nao is still forecasted to go negative by the New year by all ensembles that signal is not as strong as the ao however. Still no sign of the southeast ridge returning. Thanks to the Scandinavian ridge moving east. So in summary a big change in the northern hemisphere pattern from two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Discouraged by the OP's, encourage by the ensembles. Those are my morning pattern discussion thoughts...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Same old flip flop basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindsaywx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Discouraged by the OP's, encourage by the ensembles. Those are my morning pattern discussion thoughts...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The gfs op is a joke its plowing the storm into a block.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Allan Huffman tweet regarding the 0z Euro ensembles. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 https://twitter.com/raleighwx/status/416554712238813184 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Beginning to think a 3-4 day lead time is the max we're going to get this winter on any event with the difficulty the models are having. Seems like the op run and the ensembles are having a harder time than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 I guess one encouraging sign is that the WPO and EPO seem to be reverting back to a solid negative regime as they were in November. I don't know what this will mean as far as observed weather for us since we're deeper into the cold season but those indices, when negative in November, really were the only reason we didn't torch. Perhaps their negative state will at least still keep the cold air nearby as we move into January. The difference this time is the AO looks to be in a more favorable state. The PNA and NAO not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The 12z GFS really didn't look all that bad at 500 for Dec 30th. I was surprised we didn't see a better reflection at the surface. It's too bad that piece gets left behind b/c if it could get out front we'd likely have a nice little snow event for the TN Valley on our hands As this particular run goes out in time, it appears to be stepping away from the cliff a little, showing a surface reflection on the gulf coast around hr 138. It also shows a low developing off the coast of SC by hour 141. The main problem is the piece of energy that develops weakly and scoots into the lakes. This run develops the surface reflection on the gulf coast into a gulf low that stays well suppressed (crosses FL at 1004 MB) before making the turn up the coast. I will be interested in the ensembles for sure. Looks like this STILL has potential (in spite of the lakes low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The long range GFS is............................. U G L Y. Something tells me with a strengthening -EPO/-WPO (the SST's still look great in the northern Pacific) this OP solution will likely be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 The long range GFS is............................. U G L Y. Something tells me with a strengthening -EPO/-WPO (the SST's still look great in the northern Pacific) this OP solution will likely be wrong. Probably right when you said wrong,WPC is giving it 0% credit day 3-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2013 Author Share Posted December 27, 2013 The long range GFS is............................. U G L Y. Something tells me with a strengthening -EPO/-WPO (the SST's still look great in the northern Pacific) this OP solution will likely be wrong. Unfortunately, today's CPC ensembles (-AO, +NAO, -PNA) would support a trough out west and a ridge in the east. I started noticing this trend two days ago immediately following the Euro's erroneous Arctic outbreak portrayal. The models are certainly reflecting that warmer trend. The Euro weeklies that Mr. Bob described certainly give me some hope for this time frame. It looks as though the models gave a false alarm for cold. Yes, we will get seasonal cold for 2-3 days at a time between storms. The Euro led the way two days ago in signaling this. The GFS appears to have missed and is now bowing to the OP Euro. The ensembles have been colder, but it looks like the OPs have discerned the error and are in the process of correcting themselves . Until the Atlantic is favorable, the current pattern of a western trough, eastern ridge looks to continue through at least mid-month. Fortunately, the SE ridge is suppressed somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 27, 2013 Share Posted December 27, 2013 Don't bypass the possibilities for the Jan 2/3 system Carvers. The suppressed look of the 12z GFS matches the euro ensembles nicely and without a -NAO it will likely come further north, as this weekends system will. Time will tell, but I think it's a true threat. Once past 6/7 days, you might as well roll the dice........... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.