John1122 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Any idea what the NWS out of Nashville is looking at to say this as part of the morning discussion? LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS COULD BE MOVING ON BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...SO A PATTERN SHIFT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY. In about 8-10 days the trough shifts East and will cut off the clipper train. Tonight is #2 of about 5-7 that will be rolling through over the next 10 days. This is short lived though, at least according to the GFS. I'll continue this in the Pattern thread with some 500mb maps from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z Hi-Res NAM shows a nice little hit from the Saturday clipper on the Upper Cumberland area with 2 inch and some speckled 3 inch accums. But, it's the NAM so bleh, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Cold shot in the 21-24 January time frame looking like a strong appetizer before the main course the following week. I'm not looking for much snow after the strong front Tuesday. However I fully expect nice cold lows in the teens. Next Fri/Sat overrunning precip type will be an issue, if it even happens. Looks like perhaps ice to rain if arctic air hangs tough. Temp profiles probably won't support snow. My precip thoughts are based on pattern recognition and persistence, not progs. I'm more interested in the following week. Probability is increasing of matching the early January cold event. Will the Valley see single digit low temps? AK ridge sets up cross polar flow. Greenland height anomalies may help the polar pinch from the other side. NAO still shown positive, but I think that is a quirk due to an even stronger ridge over the central Atlantic. Also the Greenland situation may be a more temporary response to a 50/50 low which is still cold, just not as sustained. If the GFS is right about the polar pinch, we are looking at an arctic core dump blue screen freeze. GFS and Euro both hint at a southern stream in late January. Normally I get concerned about anything in Calif with a downstream Southeast ridge, but not as much so this time. Eastern US still buried in cold when that sets up, iff Greenland forecast is right. We are way out in fantasy land, but it could be an opportunity for a quality winter storm. One looks for a system starting in Texas and tracking straight east through the Deep South. Any sign of a jog north before the Carolinas and game over for Tenn. Have a good weekend! EDIT above about Greenland and 50/50 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Well I wonder how the "feast or famine" bands will look tonight. The RAP showed a few decent ones swinging through. Wish I had some elevation in my favor heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Last night was good for NW flow areas. I can squeeze out an inch or two when Mt LeConte does well. Last night I ended up with about 1.5 inches, LeConte had 6 inches. Hopefully tonight, the same flow sets up. The initial clipper moisture hasn't been doing much, even on this side of the Plateau. Jamestown had done pretty well with the initial pushes. Decent radar returns upstream right now but they'll likely start dying out a bit as they cross the Plateau. The NAM hi-res has the same snow shadow it had a couple weeks ago when the Lake City to Harriman area had no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 658 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 ...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION... .THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING COLD FRONTS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. LIGHT SNOW WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY MID SUNDAY MORNING...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TNZ012>017-035-037>039-042-044-046-VAZ005-008-191500- /O.EXB.KMRX.WW.Y.0004.140119T0000Z-140119T1500Z/ SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-MORGAN-UNION- GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-NORTHWEST CARTER- SCOTT-WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL... SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...WARTBURG... MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...GREENEVILLE... JOHNSON CITY...ELIZABETHTON...GATE CITY...ABINGDON 658 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY. * EVENT...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER SNOWFALL OCCURRING IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING MOST OF THE EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. * IMPACTS...DRIVING AND WALKING MAY BE DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. Surprised that they included to northern valley. I don"t ever post but lurk a lot and I am glad to see this new sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Thanks for the MRX update Bearman. We need more posters in our subforum. Welcome and post often. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro is painting a lil more moisture for Tues/Wed,something to look at anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Euro is painting a lil more moisture for Tues/Wed,something to look at anyways Euro showing multiple opportunities...that included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I am leery of falling for the hopes of a more robust clipper on Tuesday, but the NAM at 18z is fairly juicy for ne TN. I am just not optimistic, what are everyone else's thoughts? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I am leery of falling for the hopes of a more robust clipper on Tuesday, but the NAM at 18z is fairly juicy for ne TN. I am just not optimistic, what are everyone else's thoughts? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Not a fan of clippers this winter. 0" from them so far. Like the elongated look of the trough on the Euro with it spitting out energy along the GOM though...that is a change from previous runs. Now, back to the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 We keep getting such dry air in the wake of the clippers, they just don't have the precip rates to overcome the dry air. But with a true arctic front coming, I always have higher hopes for snow in the wake of them. Much like Friday night, the next one has a pool of much colder air behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lets see if we can get a stronger vort taking a good track. the one thing i like vs EVERY clipper so far, is the presentation of precip blossoming instead of crapping out as it passes us. oh yeah....... Go Peyton. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The eps is also throwing in more qpf's also for early next weeks event,seems to be the trend with all models today.Nothing much for Mid valley to the west but you guys in the E in the typical orographic spots might get something out of this after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 MRX seems to be feeling pretty good for the MTNs, SWVA, and NE Tennessee. Not much for the rest of us though. JKL is waiting for another run of the models to issue winter products, but seems to think there could be some heavy snow at times across their CWA. They did mention how awful the models have been with these waves and of course, the dreaded dry air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 yeah the 700's look bone dry,gonna see lots of virga probably tomorrow with the qpf's so meager looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 MRX has issued WWAs for the northeastern valley. It is warranted, especially since it happens partially during rush hour. Feels eerily similar to an event just this time frame last year...the one with thundersnow. It really is going to come down to whether this system can get its act together early enough. Could fizzle. But if it gets going should have high snow to water ratios. I would guess around one inch Morristown, 1-4 in Kingsport and JC, 2-4 in Bristol, 3-4 in Abingdon and points northeastward. Could easil be nothing, could easily be more. I am splitting the difference. Obviously, confidence is higher the further northeast you go. Latest GFS puts slightly more qpf in this region on its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Anyone have SREF 15 totals for the event for NE TN? Guessing w/ 15:1 ratios, amounts could be higher than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Is it realistic to think Knoxville has a chance of getting in on the action and will temps be an issue. I am wondering if this will be a day of light snow that never accumulates due to marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Is it realistic to think Knoxville has a chance of getting in on the action and will temps be an issue. I am wondering if this will be a day of light snow that never accumulates due to marginal temps. Knox will be very lucky to get anything more than a short lived dusting IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Is it realistic to think Knoxville has a chance of getting in on the action and will temps be an issue. I am wondering if this will be a day of light snow that never accumulates due to marginal temps. TRI is a close call. Looks like the cut-off for accumulating snow is just south of there. Again, really depends on where the low in the lee of the Apps sets up shop. I would say no for Knoxville at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 0z NAM coming in...simulated radar shows a strong band of precip moving through. Not long duration, but high rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This front will have a significant cold pool behind it. It will squeeze out all available moisture and possibly have some NW flow. Areas to the East will do much better with synoptic snow, but I could see Knoxville getting 1/2-1 inch in spots if you get a lucky band to set up. It might be a case like many this year where you drive through 5 mile swaths of 1/2-1 inch amounts and 5 mile swaths of nothing. Temps shouldn't be a big issue for that part of the event. The temp will be falling into the 20s with the snow showers. The synoptic snow will possibly be mixed with rain to start out in some areas. Lower elevation in the far East may see that. As of now, temps have fallen into the 20s here. They may warm in advance of the system, the last few that have went through have featured a 4-6 degree warm-up for me right before they pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I feel like I need to be on meds tracking this little system. I think I am going crazy. Local media saying the precip will begin at 2 am, switching to heavy snowshowers by 8am. When I run the RAP, I can't even see precip making it to KTRI till around lunch. What the heck am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My forecast says the snow won't really begin til after 4-5 AM. So I could see it starting in the TRI probably two hours later. JKL did update and add the counties bordering me to the WWA. So that gives me a little extra hope. Though the models have been showing the TN/KY as a sharp cut-off point. One of the AFD I read had said something about the precip starting later than they had first thought. I can't remember which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN924 PM CST MON JAN 20 2014.UPDATE...CURRENT REGIONAL SFC OBS...REGIONAL RADAR MOSIAC...SATELLITEIMAGERY...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS AND SHORT RANGE MODEL SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z TUE KOHX SOUNDING...ARE ALLPOINTING TOWARD A DECREASE CHANCE OF SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY...IF IT OCCURS...DURING THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WITHARCTIC FRONT STILL WELL N OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AS OF 03Z...AND WITH AIRMASS STILL RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MID STATE...JUST DONOT SEE THE POTENTIAL OF ANY TYPE OF PCPN UNTIL THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME...AND EVEN AT THAT TIME...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE FALLING TOAROUND FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE MID STATE...MOISTURE WILL BELIMITED AT BEST...AND WILL ADDRESS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPSMAINLY ACROSS NRN HALF. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSBEFORE 12Z ALSO. UPDATED THE HWO PRODUCT TO REFLECT THIS TOO.HAVE ALSO RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES ALSO PER NOTAS SOON AS ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC FRONT AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.ALSO UPDATED THE WIND ADVISORY DURING THE 12Z-00Z TIME FRAME.BELIEVE THAT MAIN IMPACTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS WILL BE DURINGTHE MORNING HRS...I.E. 12Z-18Z...BUT WITH TIMING OF EVERYTHING ALITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOMEWIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS AND THUSWILL CONTINUE THRU 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 00z GFS once again beefs up the moisture. If it verifies, close to warning level snows from Fentress County to Johnson County. It even drops .5-.75 around Hawkins County. SE Kentucky really wins on that run with .75-1 in an area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here is what I am talking about. GFS valid at 4am, RAP valid at noon.....first frames on each model where precip is moving in. I thought the RAP was the go to short range model. Is there something I don't know here? lol. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I've found both to be very far off at times. I've actually often found the RAP overestimated everything. That GFS map looks less than great to me to be honest. All that precip would be rain with 850s above freezing. I'm in the 20s now but I'm positive I'd shoot up to 33-35 for that precip to fall as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Whatever model that David Aldridge uses has snow beginning in my area around 9-10am and spreading South and East through the day. Of course his model showed basically nothing at all in NE Tennessee, so I don't think it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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