nrgjeff Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 MRX caution is probably correct. NAM I think is too aggressive. GFS/Euro don't have that moisture, but NAM is the short-term model so perhaps assume half of NAM qpf which is still more than the other two. NAM is pretty energetic over TN, later assuming a slight negative tilt for NC. Also has a somewhat TROWAL like feature with 850 WAA out of the northeast going into lift/precip. It is not really at TROWAL but testimony to a tight piece of energy. Problem is lack of moisture. I like little if any North Alabama into Chattanooga. Any far North Georgia readers might get a dusting. Nashville could get a quick dusting. Knoxville should get the dusting to half inch. Upper Plateau to TRI should get 1-2 inches. Right next door in southwest VA may get 3 in. Amounts will increase well with elevation in the mountains esp upslope areas. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 MRX caution is probably correct. NAM I think is too aggressive. GFS/Euro don't have that moisture, but NAM is the short-term model so perhaps assume half of NAM qpf which is still more than the other two. NAM is pretty energetic over TN, later assuming a slight negative tilt for NC. Also has a somewhat TROWAL like feature with 850 WAA out of the northeast going into lift/precip. It is not really at TROWAL but testimony to a tight piece of energy. Problem is lack of moisture. I like little if any North Alabama into Chattanooga. Any far North Georgia readers might get a dusting. Nashville could get a quick dusting. Knoxville should get the dusting to half inch. Upper Plateau to TRI should get 1-2 inches. Right next door in southwest VA may get 3 in. Amounts will increase well with elevation in the mountains esp upslope areas. Enjoy! Thanks for sharing your thoughts Jeff! Here's a mid-day snow map round up for tomorrow's event: 12z GGEM 12z GFS 12z Hi-Res NAM 12z RGEM 9z SREF QPF WRF Simulated Radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 12z Euro perhaps a smidge wetter (east TN), but I'd imagine time of day would hurt what little could accumulate as the surface temps rise during the day Wed. Flizzard at best outside elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just looking at free maps - but I really think we should be focusing on Friday with the euro. Almost looks like a closed upper low dropping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just looking at free maps - but I really think we should be focusing on Friday with the euro. Almost looks like a closed upper low dropping in. Canadian picked it up also today,you're talking about the one in AL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 84 hour snowfall on the 18z NAM shows a Carolina special, and a bit more moisture for far east TN and SW VA on the Friday system. Edit: And 18z Hi-Res NAM for tomorrow LOL Edit: And the 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 MRX going with an area wide WWA with a Winter Storm Warning in the usual mountain locales, Looks like even down in the Southern Valley they expect some trouble. Kinda shocked but they seem to think lift will overcome the lack of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 My ZFP, Tonight: Rain showers likely in the evening...then snow showers and rain showers after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows in the lower 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Wednesday: Snow showers in the morning...then snow showers likely early in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow showers late in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch. Total snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the mid to upper 30s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyjmayo Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Yeah, I can't believe MRX went with a WWA in the central and southern valley. I'm not going to hold my breath, but that alone is encouraging considering they are usually much more conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 David Aldrich going with "Valley and Plateau and S.E. Kentucky 0 (zero) to 1.5 inches Smokies...0.5 to 4 + inches" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 If temps aren't below freezing, it'll have to snow really hard to make any accumulations, and it looks like they'll be marginal below 2500 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzbyrd Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I'm wondering where everybody went to tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Temps are actually fairly cold, won't be much of any moisture to speak of tonight though. Look for redevelopment tomorrow of snow showers, some heavy at times and hope you get under a nice one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 That said, if anyone outside of the mountains gets an inch, consider yourself very lucky at this point. It'll maybe look nice in the air at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 That said, if anyone outside of the mountains gets an inch, consider yourself very lucky at this point. It'll maybe look nice in the air at least. Flakes is all we'll get,it's starting to change over in the E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 One thing this system has shown, no model handles any non-rainmaker worth a hoot beyond 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 This one died to the point of it may not even produce a flake or a sprinkle here. At least not until this afternoon when there may be a snow shower or flizzard. Maybe Thursday night and Friday will give someone here something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 One thing this system has shown, no model handles any non-rainmaker worth a hoot beyond 24 hours. This one died to the point of it may not even produce a flake or a sprinkle here. At least not until this afternoon when there may be a snow shower or flizzard. Maybe Thursday night and Friday will give someone here something. From my perspective as I look at the radar this morning, I don't think the models have been too terrible at all for this particular event. Outside of the GGEM and RGEM I've not seen much guidance that would suggest this would be more than a dusting outside of the mountains since the mid to latter part of last week. They've trended dryer and dryer and surface temps, even on the very short range models, have just not been shown to be cold for the time frame. I'm absolutely baffled at MRX going all in like they did yesterday evening for the valley. There have been many times in the past were several models were actually showing a significant event and MRX wouldn't bite at all or they'd low ball any totals. Now I'd love to eat my words and see an inch or two today then come back here and agree that the models had no clue, but I see no evidence that'll happen. Thur/Fri looks better, maybe we fair better then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 The latest RAP and HRRR say if you want to see light accumulations outside of the mountains, go to SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 The Euro was the first to lose this, about 48-72 hours ago. The GFS mostly lost it at 18z Monday evening, about 36 hours out, and the 00Z NAM and 06Z NAM HiRes were showing 1-3+ across East Tennessee on their Monday evening/Tuesday morning runs. So the models lost it long after late last week. They were pretty terrible for this event as a unit. From my perspective as I look at the radar this morning, I don't think the models have been too terrible at all for this particular event. Outside of the GGEM and RGEM I've not seen much guidance that would suggest this would be more than a dusting outside of the mountains since the mid to latter part of last week. They've trended dryer and dryer and surface temps, even on the very short range models, have just not been shown to be cold for the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 The NAM has been the most wishy washy model this season by far. Occasionally the Hi-Res paints a mostly correct picture but it flips around so much it just really can't be trusted in any time frame in my opinion. Not that it's perfect, but I personally don't like to go into battle without the Euro on my side inside of 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 From what I'm seeing now, I like the next clipper much better, but of course, the models may also be severely mishandling it. The positives about it appear to be a better overall atmospheric set up ahead of it and as of now, a bit better forcing and moisture. That could all change dramatically within the next 24 hours though. Last year, Super Bowl weekend we had a series of clippers like this, most didn't do much for me, but the last one dropped 4 inches.on February 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 For what it's worth, the 0z Euro is showing a 1 to 2 inch swath of snow from the Upper Cumberland area eastward for the Friday clipper. It adds to this again mid week and again on Friday the 24th. Nothing major, but totals to 2-4 in the same general areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I am actually excited about the Friday system for TN (especially middle since it arrives in the earlier part of the day). I think it stands a chance to be more robust than the one that has just moved through here, and for a larger area of TN, but the part that gets me excited is that the ground should be much colder with this system, so it should "look" a lot more wintry at the very least. I do wish it would hit before lunch in east TN, as time of day could still hurt us a little............ since it's not suppose to bring heavy rates along its path. Then we wait to see if the Sunday system can dive as far south as projected. I have my doubts as this is the time period the trough will start lifting out. That one will likely be further north, but that's just my opinion. Middle TN should be ready for the clipper on Friday morning. Since it hits early to mid morning, I would imagine school delays and/or closings would be in order there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 I bet we don't see another WWA down here for any more clippers this year. I still can't believe they issued one. I've had events down here where a WWA wasn't issued until warning criteria snows were already on the ground. It's just so unlike MRX to do something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Agree including Hamilton County was insane. Their snow chart even had zero from Chatty up to about Watts Bar. Anyway if you live in the Tri Cities area or even on the Upper Plateau, Friday might be interesting. Continue status quo elsewhere. Great discussion of Friday by tnweathernut above. Again moisture will be a challenge but with a vigorous little short-wave. However it will be colder; therefore, easier to get some condensation and dendrite growth. It is conditional but worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Fog Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 A half inch here and a half inch there Here a half an inch, there a half an inch, everywhere a half an inch NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN248 PM CST WED JAN 15 2014.DISCUSSION......A SERIES OF CLIPPERS WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER HERE IN THE MID STATEFOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...SOTHE WEATHER WILL BE LIKE A ROLLER COASTER RIDE...SO BUCKLE UP!MID STATE CLOUDED UP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THEAFTERNOON DUE IN PART TO UPPER TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE AREAALONG WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SURFACE HEATING THAT HAS STEEPEN THE LAPSERATES THROUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERE THUS DEVELOPING STRATOCU. THEREHAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF FLURRIES BUT NOT MANY. AS DIURNALCOMPONENT DROPS OFF THIS EVENING STILL EXPECT TO SEE FLURRIES OVEREASTERN AERAS AND PLATEAU THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. UPPER TROUGH SHOULDEXIT PLATEAU MID TO LATE EVENING WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVERTHE AREA TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S WITH UPPERTEENS ALONG THE PLATEAU. CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER HIGH PLAINS POISED TOQUICKLY MOVE THIS WAY ON THURSDAY AND PASS THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEETHURSDAY NIGHT LATE. A QUICK WARM UP OUT AHEAD OF CLIPPER DURINGTHE DAY THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTHERN TIER OFCOUNTIES BY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT ASCLIPPER MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. COULD SEE A DUSTINGNORTHEAST HALF OF MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWSTHURSDAY NIGHT DOWN IN THE UPPER 20S WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOT DIVING DOWNINTO THE MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WE MAY NOT SEE HIGHSGET ABOVE FREEZING ON FRIDAY EXCEPT NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER. WECOULD ALSO SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH NORTHEASTHALF ON FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION.COLD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. ANOTHER CLIPPER HEADSTHIS WAY ON SATURDAY IN RELENTLESS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ANDRACES THROUGH THE MID STATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING ACHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE MID STATESATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO THE UPPERCUMBERLAND. WE COULD SEE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH IN THE UPPERCUMBERLAND SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH SOQUICKLY THAT IT HAS LITTLE CHANCE OF LAYING DOWN MUCH IN THE WAYOF ACCUMULATION. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS DOWN IN THE 20S. GULF COASTSURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN QUICKLY ON SUNDAY DRIVING TEMPERATURES WELLINTO THE 40S WITH A FEW 50S IN THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER CLIPPER WILLMOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ONEHEADING THIS WAY ON TUESDAY. PATTERN LOOKS LOCKED IN FOR SEVERAL DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 There's no hope for Mid Tn on W. if the GFS 18z is right.,not for any of these upcoming clips Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The last clipper, the NAM was wet the latest, the GFS went dry and turned out to be right. This clipper, the GFS and SREF are wettest and the NAM is dry. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the NAM win this round. JKL though is going for the GFS/SREF blend and thinks the NAM is under doing the moisture, 1-2 for their CWA tonight and tomorrow if the GFS/SREF is right. MRX has taken the "Won't be fooled again" approach and is going with the no soup outside the usual areas of NE TN/SWVA and only a little soup there forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The last clipper, the NAM was wet the latest, the GFS went dry and turned out to be right. This clipper, the GFS and SREF are wettest and the NAM is dry. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the NAM win this round. JKL though is going for the GFS/SREF blend and thinks the NAM is under doing the moisture, 1-2 for their CWA tonight and tomorrow if the GFS/SREF is right. MRX has taken the "Won't be fooled again" approach and is going with the no soup outside the usual areas of NE TN/SWVA and only a little soup there forecast. Any idea what the NWS out of Nashville is looking at to say this as part of the morning discussion? LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS COULD BE MOVING ON BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...SO A PATTERN SHIFT MAY NOT BE TOO FAR AWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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