John1122 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 00z NAM is digging the Vort way way down. 12z had it at Memphis around midnight Tuesday, 00z has it in East Texas/N.LA at that same time. If it could somehow pop a low over S.Alabama we'd be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Instead it goes quietly into the night. Another event that looked promising a few days ago, goes into the "hope for an inch, expect a dusting" category. You may get to the average yearly snowfall for Knox 1/2 inch at a time this year in the new era of very low average snowfall at TYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 As moisture starved as this one is, I'll be surprised if we squeeze out flurries in Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 As moisture starved as this one is, I'll be surprised if we squeeze out flurries in Knoxville. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html The 0z Canadian is juicier than the other models with 1 to 2 for the eastern half of the state Tues/Wed. It has a series of small events from Friday onward that when totaled up don't look bad. Here's the snow acc map through Thursday next week: Nickels and dimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 The 0z Canadian is juicier than the other models with 1 to 2 for the eastern half of the state Tues/Wed. It has a series of small events from Friday onward that when totaled up don't look bad. Here's the snow acc map through Thursday next week: Nickels and dimes. Like the trend,UK don't look that bad either.Plus HPC is giving it 30% credit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I like our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Did anyone take a look at the GFS and its individual ensemble members? Several of them show lee side low development and 5 of 11 show a very nice little snow for northeast TN (some of them are decent hits for the entire eastern 1/3 of the state. Pretty impressive - and the 9z SREF looks fairly juicy too, but the NAM has little to nothing (though outside it's preferred range). I am hoping this trends for the better for east TN over the coming 24 hours. If so, we might have one "sneak" up on us within 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 12z Euro shows virtually no snow for Wednesday but on Saturday east TN from central valley north and east get 2-4 inches. 12z GFS snow for Wed: 12z Canadian snow for Wed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 12z Euro shows virtually no snow for Wednesday but on Saturday east TN from central valley north and east get 2-4 inches. 12z GFS snow for Wed: 12z Canadian snow for Wed: I am hoping the Euro isn't the best at short term (wish it was inside of 48 instead of 72) and great at the long term here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I'll be interested to see how much weight is given to the 12z GFS. It's almost time to start issuing potential advisories for Middle/Eastern TN and if the 12z GFS is to be believed, N. Alabama and N. Georgia. Then again you have the NAM. But in one of their recent AFD a JKL met called the NAM "wonky lately" so who knows. I'd of course prefer the Canadian, but it thinks every place is Canada and often over does wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Joe Bastardi is saying the Canadian is the model of choice for the Wednesday-Thursday event, that it's correct with the Westward trend towards the Apps for snow. I assume it showed the most snow in the NE. He said the GFS was playing catch up and it would shift more west as well. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 So which is out to lunch, the GFS or the NAM/EURO for tomorrow night and Wednesday morning? my guess is the GFS, but 12z was a thing of beauty for the southern apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 MRX kinda down played the GFS, which is trying to develop a wave of LP along the front. I believe the NAM actually was too a couple days ago then lost it. Now the NAM is just giving it the old "Nothing to see here" treatment, but as I mentioned, some NWS mets have been saying the NAM is having issues lately. So which is out to lunch, the GFS or the NAM/EURO for tomorrow night and Wednesday morning? my guess is the GFS, but 12z was a thing of beauty for the southern apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It's looking cold this week with temps -8 to -12 over the Tennessee Valley region, last week the GFS was showing a big warm up during this timeframe. I hope a storm can form on one of the many fronts that are lined up to come through the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 Happy hour GFS matches Euro for Wed (dry). Then cold and dry rest of the way with a Deep South and Carolina weenie blizzard thrown in for LOLs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Frank Strait on a daily video kick, here's another one. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/still-watching-for-snow/22053285 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Weeklies arent horrible,pretty much no big warm up on the horizon for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 If the Euro ensembles are correct, it would take a minor miracle to NOT get snow at some point over the next 14 days. Of course much of TN has managed to find "miracle" status often over the last 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 If the Euro ensembles are correct, it would take a minor miracle to NOT get snow at some point over the next 14 days. Of course much of TN has managed to find "miracle" status often over the last 15 years. Man, the Euro has had the hot hand with the severity and duration of cold. Might be round two real soon. Seems like its preference is for something to run up the coast OR potent Miller B scenarios. Hoping for a snowy Super Bowl! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Don't look now, but the 0z Nam took a step toward the 12z gfs. Has snow in the southern apps and weak lee side low development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Was about to say nut - hi res nam appears to be completely anafrontal, with a bit of moisture (and probably good ratios to boot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 A Lot like 12z snowfall wise. 0z hires nam Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 You can bet with the 12z GFS today and the 0z nam tonight this will catch the attention of MRX. Heck, there were several 18z GFS ind members that were bullish on snow......... If the GFS trends back again in a few mins I would expect special weather statements for some valley locations, perhaps a WWA by daybreak tomorrow. It would also possible to see a WSWatch hoisted for the mountains in the early morning package. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 And the confusion continues, I am glad I am not MRX. The 0z GFS is so dry it's not really even funny. Not much of a hint of even a flurry....... Short range mayhem continues. See you at 6z. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 The models are amazingly bad. I mean they're bound to be right, because they show almost everything that can happen over the course of the day. JB has been saying the American models are having feedback issues. Who knows what the story is though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Morning update, OHX is the most bullish, especially their Plateau areas, WWA there and the Eastern Highland Rim for 1-2, some isolated 3 with even more possible if the NAM trend is correct. Mentions the NAM showing frontogenesis occurs over their Plateau areas. MRX seems to not know how to go, made the usually vague SPS that most people reading would think only applies to the Smokies and High Knob in Wise County, Will likely wait until the event is on the door step to issue WWAs, which I'd think at minimum will happen in the areas mentioned in the SPS. All WFO in their discussions mentions that rain will switch to snow quickly, yet in their ZFP MRX has "Rain showers likely til early morning" with "Snow Showers likely after midnight". Very odd wording that seems to go against the quick change over. Oh well, should be an OBS situation in 12-18 hours. As for the other systems, all the local WFO are just confused mainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Morning snow totals round up, for the Wed event: 0z GGEM 6z GFS 6z Hi-Res NAM I see nothing in the 0z Euro text output that would indicate any significant snow across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Hires NAM at 12z - gives a localized thump to ne TN and parts of sw VA (including the mountains of NC & sw VA. 2 to locally 3+ amounts outside the mountains. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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