Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And from Memphis this evening...though the part in bold was interesting. TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SFC HIGH MOVES EAST FURTHER TO THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY SATURDAYAFTN...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER MAINLY CLEARSKIES. TEMPS WILL REBOUND TOMORROW SOME...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOWNORMAL IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. INCREASING CLOUDS WILLBE FOUND DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE FIRST OF ANY MOISTUREREACHING THE REGION CLOSE TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTICFRONT GETS SWEPT EAST WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COLD AIRWILL SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AND ALLOW FORTRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS DEEP COLDER AIR IMPACTS THEREGION. FLASH FREEZING OF ROADWAYS MAY BECOME A MAJOR CONCERNALONG WITH SNOW FALLING ONTO ICY ROADWAYS SUNDAY LATE MORNINGEARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH SUCH A STRONGFRONT...AND RAPID COLD AIR ADVECTION IT WILL HELP SQUEEZE OUTMOISTURE ALONG WITH GOOD JET DYNAMICS AND NICE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENTFLOW. HOW FAST THE DEEPER COLD AIR MOVES IN WILL MEAN EVERYTHINGSUNDAY...IF IT MOVES FASTER ALONG FOR DENDRITE SNOW GROWTH FASTERTHEN AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER...IF NOT AND MOISTURE MOVES FASTER OUTTHEN SMALLER AMOUNTS. THAT IS THE ONLY QUESTION...IT IS GOING TOGET REALLY COLD...THERE IS NO DOUBT HERE! AND WITH SNOWPACK TONORTH THE AIR WILL NOT MODIFY REALLY MUCH AT ALL. PLUME MODELSSHOWING RANGE OF LESS THAN 1 TO 6 INCHES AT MEMPHIS WITH AVG NEAR2 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 And the trend continues, 18z GFS snowier than 12z. Edit: Hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 This looks like as good a shot for a state wide 1-4 inch snowfall with higher spots as we normally will ever see, especially without a gulf system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 And the trend continues, 18z GFS snowier than 12z. I wonder if we can continue to trend being so close to the event? I mean, that low is WAY down there on the 18z gfs and the evolution was a little quirky to me, hanging out in northern Louisiana beetween hours 39 to 45.... and then rocketing NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Nashville disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Crossville Meteo 12z GFS shows 7.5 inches using Cobb, 4.1 using 11:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I wonder if we can continue to trend being so close to the event? I mean, that low is WAY down there on the 18z gfs and the evolution was a little quirky to me, hanging out in northern Louisiana beetween hours 39 to 45.... and then rocketing NE. I'm wondering about that too. It seems like once the energy was sampled properly, we've seen a slight shift in the track. 0z runs will interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Knox and Nash's Meteo shows 5.5 using Cobb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Tri gets snow shadowed I guess, it's showing 2.5 with Cobb. Seems unlikely but I guess it's happened like that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Someone gonna start a thread? Anyways .26 zr the next event for BNA,Like others have mentioned here though it could very well be a big deal because of with any snow pack it's gonna bring down the 2m's considerably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Tri gets snow shadowed I guess, it's showing 2.5 with Cobb. Seems unlikely but I guess it's happened like that before. It happens just about everytime for us around Kingsport in these types of events. Hopefully this will be stronger to overcome it. Just barely got a dusting while you 3 yesterday just as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Now, a frontal passage is slightly different for Kingsport. If the flow is out of the northwest like last night, nine out of ten times we strike out. With a strong frontal passage, the front may move east to west...but the flow is from the southeast. I just think this thing is so cold, it will be tough to forecast. For sure though, there is a lack of snow over this portion of TRI. Now, Bristol and JC do much better. I will roll with 1-2". If Knoxville switches quickly, I think things here go well. They are the canary in the proverbial mine, also BNA. Memphis looks like they may do well unless this continues its SE trend w/ precip. Hey, what is that polar bear supposed to symbolize!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Agree snow shadows should overcome Sunday and Monday, from the above TRI discussion to Chattanooga. I was (pleasantly) shocked to see a dusting in Chatty Thursday night. This front is stronger; more moisture hangs back in the cold air; dendrite zone will be as MRX describes; and, that difluent flow lingers aloft. Cyclonic flow will remain behind the front longer, compared to the quick clearing Thursday night. I like the low end of NWS discussions at the moment. Wild cards include timing of CAA per NWS discussions and liquid ratios. Dusting to half inch Chatty, 1-2 surrounding mountains; 1-3 from MEM to BNA to Knox, higher maybe 4 Upper Plateau; 2-4 northeast/TRI, local variation noted above; and, hammer time in the Smokies! Kentucky should do well. I'd also look for (lighter) sticking snow from far northern Mississippi through North Alabama into North Georgia. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Now, a frontal passage is slightly different for Kingsport. If the flow is out of the northwest like last night, nine out of ten times we strike out. With a strong frontal passage, the front may move east to west...but the flow is from the southeast. I just think this thing is so cold, it will be tough to forecast. For sure though, there is a lack of snow over this portion of TRI. Now, Bristol and JC do much better. I will roll with 1-2". If Knoxville switches quickly, I think things here go well. They are the canary in the proverbial mine, also BNA. Memphis looks like they may do well unless this continues its SE trend w/ precip. Hey, what is that polar bear supposed to symbolize!? That's a good question haha about the polar bear. I just thought it was really funny. Maybe it symbolizes the way our last few winter have gone?!!! Yeah your right that this type of setup is different. We should much better than yesterday. This reminds me a snow we had in early 2010 that dropped a quick 3 inches with an arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Agree snow shadows should overcome, from the above TRI discussion to Chattanooga. I was (pleasantly) shocked to see a dusting in Chatty Thursday night. This front is stronger; more moisture hangs back in the cold air; dendrite zone will be as MRX describes; and that difluent flow lingers aloft. Cyclonic flow will remain behind the front longer, compared to the quick clearing Thursday night. I like the low end of NWS discussions at the moment. Wild cards include timing of CAA per NWS discussions and liquid ratios. Dusting to half inch Chatty, 1-2 surrounding mountains; 1-3 from MEM to BNA to Knox, higher Upper Plateau; 2-4 northeast/TRI, local variation noted above; and, hammer time in the Smokies! Kentucky should do well. I'd also look for (lighter) sticking snow from far northern Mississippi through North Alabama into North Georgia. Cheers! Thanks.BNA is been a sn drought the last 2 years.Even 2" would beat or be close to what we've had during that duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Wishing you the best up there. Thanks.BNA is been a sn drought the last 2 years.Even 2" would beat or be close to what we've had during that duration I went ahead and started a new topic for this event. It'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 The Canadian is suggesting a little ice Friday morning for east TN. None of the other models show this as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 Above 1,000 FT would be cold enough if that QPF verifies Friday, but I'm thinking only far northeast Tenn. East Kentucky and southwest Virginia would be cold enough Friday morning. Otherwise I think our friends out in Memphis and West Kentucky have the best chance of light ice Thursday morning. Little in the way of accumulation on trees, just a trace, and now plenty warm enough for chemical treatment on the ground. Just a few pretty icicles over Graceland. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Euro @ 24 looked interesting along the KY/TN border, one end to the other. Looks like ice, more out west like Jeff mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 If precip comes and the temps are around 32, I think icing will happen in some areas simply because the ground is so cold. It's frozen solid here and it only got up to 34 here today, briefly at that. It's already back down to 21. The rain, falling onto the frozen ice/snow covered ground will likely freeze on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 New Frank Strait video. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/weekend-stormy-southeast-nice-farther-west/21904858 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 00z says "I'm going to pop a weak low over the Florida panhandle and send moisture your way Tennessee!!!" and the fricking LP over the Great Lakes says 'I'll make sure it's a nice 40 something degree rain!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 The GGEM sends a miller B type that likely rains on us, then that blows into a monster Nor Easter and sends the cold into the Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Hunstsville says 40% snow already Tuesday night http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?map.x=71&map.y=236&site=ohx&zmx=1&zmy=1#.UtCu055dW3h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 This Tuesday/Wednesday system is looking much better as an upslope event and much worse as a Clipper event on today's model runs. Looks like 1-2 being spit out for the Plateau upslope areas, 3+ in the far Eastern mountains of TN and KY. Dusting to maybe an inch in other areas from Nashville and points eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 00z GFS was a bit more moist and suggests 1-3 from the Plateau eastward is still on the table. I'd probably bet the low side as of now, it's a decently digging shortwave though and those can spark some heavy snow showers in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Local WFO are saying around 1" in the higher elevations and northern areas with more in the upslope favored areas. The 06 GFS ramped up the moisture even more this morning. .10 to .25 falls, all with favorable snow profiles Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some areas even go into the .25 to .50 range on the qpf on the GFS. Especially SE KY/NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 GFS 06Z snowfall through 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 New Frank Strait video. Southeast snow chances this week: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/southeast-snow-chances-this-week/22016796 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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